San Francisco @ St. Louis Picks & Props

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Alec Burleson has been pinch hit for 13% of the time. Alec Burleson has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will be challenged by baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Alec Burleson's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 90.1-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 87.5-mph in the past week's worth of games. Over the past 14 days, Alec Burleson's 8.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.9%. Alec Burleson has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, ranking in the 21st percentile with a 3.72 K/BB rate.

Considering Kyle Harrison's large platoon split, Masyn Winn will be at an enormous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today's matchup. In today's game, Masyn Winn is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.6% rate (82nd percentile). Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.7-mph EV last year has lowered to 85.6-mph. Masyn Winn has been lucky this year, posting a .329 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .286 — a .043 gap.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for batters. Wilmer Flores has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 86.6-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 83.5-mph figure. Despite posting a .269 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Wilmer Flores has been unlucky given the .038 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307. Wilmer Flores has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, checking in at the 89th percentile with a 1.61 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Heliot Ramos has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Heliot Ramos has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 96.4-mph.

Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in today's game... and even more favorably, Harrison has a large platoon split. Extreme flyball bats like Nolan Gorman usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jordan Hicks.

Brendan Donovan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Because of Kyle Harrison's large platoon split, Brendan Donovan will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Brendan Donovan will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Michael Conforto ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Michael Conforto will have an advantage today.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Matt Chapman is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Matt Chapman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Patrick Bailey is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Patrick Bailey has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season's 88.7-mph average. Patrick Bailey's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 46.3% to 54.2%.

Brett Wisely has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Brett Wisely will have the handedness advantage over Miles Mikolas today. Brett Wisely hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Jorge Soler is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. In the past 7 days, Jorge Soler's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9% up to 27.3%.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Mike Yastrzemski will have the upper hand in today's game. Mike Yastrzemski has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 10.2% seasonal rate to 19% in the past 14 days. Mike Yastrzemski has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 104.1-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 94.2-mph.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Matt Carpenter will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Harrison has a large platoon split. Hitters such as Matt Carpenter with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jordan Hicks who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage today.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Extreme groundball hitters like Nolan Arenado tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jordan Hicks. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's game.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for batters. Pedro Pages hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Pedro Pages's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (20.3° over the last week) is significantly higher than his 14.6° seasonal mark.