Atlanta @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 83rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Marcell Ozuna today. Marcell Ozuna's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 26.37 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.28 ft/sec now. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna's true offensive ability to be a .343, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .082 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .425 wOBA.

Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest LF fences today. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ozzie Albies in today's game. Ozzie Albies's footspeed has declined this year. His 27.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.46 ft/sec now. Hitting the ball to all fields is a key ability for batting average that Ozzie Albies has struggled with since the start of last season, as evidenced by his checking in at the 2nd percentile on THE BAT X's Spray Score.

PNC Park has the 8th-most fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally bad for home runs. Batting from the same side that Martin Perez throws from, Matt Olson will have a tough challenge in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Matt Olson in today's matchup. Matt Olson's footspeed has declined this year. His 26.14 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.29 ft/sec now.

PNC Park has the 8th-most fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally bad for home runs. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Ronald Acuna Jr.'s 7.4° launch angle (an advanced standard to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most groundball-inducing in MLB: 14th percentile.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Considering Chris Sale's large platoon split, Michael A. Taylor will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Michael A. Taylor will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.259) suggests that Michael A. Taylor has had some very poor luck this year with his .240 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Oneil Cruz will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.296) provides evidence that Oneil Cruz has been very fortunate this year with his .309 actual wOBA.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Considering Chris Sale's large platoon split, Alika Williams will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Alika Williams will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Alika Williams is in the 85th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (47.7% rate since the start of last season).

Jared Triolo's BABIP skill is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Considering Chris Sale's large platoon split, Jared Triolo will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jared Triolo will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today's game.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Joey Bart will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's game... and even better, Sale has a large platoon split. Joey Bart will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Joey Bart's speed has increased this year. His 26.21 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.07 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Given Chris Sale's large platoon split, Andrew McCutchen will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Michael Harris II has recorded a .384 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 96th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Using Statcast data, Michael Harris II ranks in the 99th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .326.

Travis d'Arnaud is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Hitting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Travis d'Arnaud will have an edge in today's matchup. Since the start of last season, Travis d'Arnaud has an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph, which is one of the best in the league at the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edward Olivares in the 79th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Edward Olivares is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Given Chris Sale's large platoon split, Edward Olivares will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Joe in the 75th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Connor Joe is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Connor Joe will have the handedness advantage against Chris Sale in today's game... and even more favorably, Sale has a large platoon split.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Orlando Arcia will hold the platoon advantage over Martin Perez in today's game. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Orlando Arcia has had some very poor luck this year. His .283 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .341.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Hitting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Adam Duvall will have an edge in today's matchup. Adam Duvall's 12.6% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) grades out in the 85th percentile since the start of last season. Adam Duvall's 95.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced standard to assess power) ranks in the 89th percentile since the start of last season.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 83°. Batting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Zack Short will have an edge today. Zack Short's 20.6° launch angle (an advanced stat to measure a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in Major League Baseball: 92nd percentile.