MLB Picks

Brandon Williamson is returning to Cincinnati following a rehab assignment where he compiled a 5.94 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, and 14:12 K/BB across 16.2 innings. He'll handle a normal workload today after recovering from a shoulder injury, but will be in tough against a Padres lineup looking to win a series. Prior to his injury, Williamson owned a 6.81 xERA, and his 41.9% hard-hit rate and low 14% K rate suggest he won't be missing many bats today. Fire up the Padres with confidence.

This abbreviated two-game set saw 14 runs yesterday, but today's matchup doesn't deserve to have the same total, in my opinion. The wind is blowing in, and there is a slight chance of rain, which could create even more disinterest for Washington, which has the worst schedule spot of the week. The Nationals will wrap up today's game and head to Los Angeles to open a series against the Dodgers on Friday. Atlanta also has a massive weekend series on deck against the Phillies. It's a perfect getaway game. Grant Holmes is a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher who has recorded scoreless outings in three of his last five starts, and Brad Lord isn't even as bad as he looks for this Under. He's been great since the All-Star break and will likely pitch only three innings, allowing a bridge reliever to get to Washington's high-leverage arms, which are all available. This should close at 9. I love an afternoon getaway game.

I want any piece of the middle of the Baltimore order at 3.8x or better against Tomoyuki Sugano, and that brings me to Gunnar Henderson. Sugano has the 15th-worst HR/9 in baseball this season, and his xERA is 1.72 points higher than his actual 5.23 ERA. He gets just 32% groundballs and has allowed five or more runs in three straight starts. He has been a home run target all season long. Henderson might not be the hottest Baltimore bat, but at this price, I'll take a 22-HR hitter who ranks third in slugging over the last two weeks and is nearly double the price of Pete Alonso. Coors Field is the second-best HR park today, per Ball Park Pal. Winds are blowing out to left field, and 90-degree temperatures should help the ball fly. If Sugano doesn't get it done, the Rockies bullpen can, with its No. 26 xFIP and No. 28 xERA on the season.

This is the best bat over the last two weeks vs. a pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen, owns a 7.18 ERA since the break, and is starting because of injuries. Mickey Gasper is slugging 1.077 over his last 11 games with five dingers over those last 14 days. His damage is coming vs. right-handed pitching, with 100% of his dingers coming vs. them. Since being called up, he is slashing .394/.565/1.121, which is ridiculous. Today's matchup should be circled for Mickey and all bettors. Bryce Miller was demoted to the pen but didn't throw a pitch there because of other injuries. He threw a season-high 104 pitches in his last outing on August 23 and has given up a home run in all but one of his last 12 starts, with multi-HR games in 33% of those. Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball per ERA in the second half of the season. I'd play this matchup to 5x.

Let's keep it simple off the top: Griffin Jax is coming off the IL after throwing just 42 pitches in his only rehab start. He has been dealing with right elbow discomfort, which is a major red flag, and pushing him much past 60 pitches today seems unlikely. There is also a chance he is innings-capped, as Tampa should be cautious with Jax with a long playoff run on the horizon. He's better than a K-per-inning pitcher, but getting to 15 outs is doubtful today. That was his leash on a full workload; now it could be cut in half. The Rays have all of their middle relievers and long arms available today, giving them little reason to push Jax deep into this game. The market is already moving, and THE BAT is projecting 60 pitches, with a fair price of -150 on this total at that pitch count.

The Tigers are in need of a bounce-back game after surrendering 26 runs across their first two against the Twins, and they may just get it with Dean Kremer on the mound for Minnesota. Not only has he allowed a homer in three straight starts, this Tigers team also seems to have his number, owning a .303 xBA and .510 xSLG across 98 plate appearances against him. Now that's a sample size we can get behind. On the other side, Drew Anderson has been serviceable this year in Detroit, owning a career-best 3.91 xERA and 34.1% chase rate. The Tigers are a live 'dog tonight trading +105, and I'd play them up to -105.

Noah Cameron has been lights out. He owns a 1.29 ERA over his last seven starts, including four scoreless outings, and now faces a Marlins lineup ranked 26th in OPS against lefties over the past month. Eury Perez has been less reliable on the road, while Kansas City has crushed right-handed pitching and won seven of its last eight at home. Add in Miami's inefficient bullpen and a fair price at home, and there’s plenty of ammo to pull the trigger on the KC.

The Los Angeles Angels slot 28th in wOBA and 29th in K% against right-handed pitching the past month, and now they draw Cam Schlittler.

Schlittler ranks in the 98th percentile in Pitching Run Value and 94th percentile in K% this season. He also owns a remarkably strong 1.14 ERA over 15 starts away from Yankee Stadium.

You’d be hard pressed to find a worse matchup for the Angels to get going offensively.