MLB Picks

Shane McClanahan has looked untouchable lately, throwing four straight scoreless outings while allowing only three hits across his last two starts. The Rays ace owns a stellar 0.87 ERA at home and has historically dominated Baltimore hitters. With the Orioles struggling against him, another low-scoring outing looks likely

Drake Baldwin continues to emerge as one of baseball’s top power-hitting catchers, launching 13 home runs while batting .301. The Braves youngster has homered three times in his last five games and has shown more pop on the road with seven away bombs. Baldwin also gets a favorable matchup against Max Meyer, who allowed two homers in his previous outing.

I'm a believer in Nick Lodolo, but the Reds lefty has looked very shaky as he's returned from a blister that sidelined him into May. Phillies rookie Andrew Painter may also have a bright future, but a bout of homer-itis has hampered his debut campaign to the tune of a 6.21 ERA. Add in Cincinnati's 4.89 bullpen ERA and we've got a prime recipe for an Over, even at an inflated total.

Imanaga has been sensational over the past month, and his 91st percentile whiff rate should grab some easy outs. The Brewers are a disciplined lineup that chases at right around 25%, but that doesn't matter much here. Imanga generates swing-and-miss with pure stuff, not chase, which poses unique issues. On the other hand, while I expect the Cubs to score enough to cover, not enough to push this Over. I'd play to 10.  

The Royals trail only the Yankees in OPS vs. righties while ranking first in both hard hit rate and FB% at home. That's a huge plus when playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark – especially on a hot day with up to 20 MPH blowing out.

Seth Lugo has had a tougher time against left-handed hitters and the Red Sox have plenty to throw at him.

Shohei Ohtani appears to be heating up at the plate after a slow start, piling up five hits and seven RBI over his last two games. The Dodgers superstar has dominated Padres starter Michael King throughout his career, going 6-for-14 with three home runs against him. Given Ohtani’s recent form and success in this matchup, the value is hard to ignore.

Corbin Carroll is swinging a hot bat, hitting .421 over the last week and coming off a two-homer performance against Colorado. The Diamondbacks outfielder has also crushed left-handed pitching this season, batting .414 against southpaws. Giants starter Robbie Ray has already surrendered 10 home runs in 2026, making this a favorable matchup.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.