MLB Picks

Let’s take advantage of a low total at Wrigley. The wind is forecasted to be blowing in, but not truly gusting, and the Cubs and Astros rank ninth and 10th in wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Houston starter Spencer Arrighetti sports a career 5.15 ERA on the road, and Chicago vet Jameson Taillon just allowed five homers and a 41.9% squared-up contact rate in his most recent start.

We’ve got a pitchers duel at Citizens Bank Park, and Guardians righty Gavin Williams and Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez have both dazzled in the first inning this season. Williams has held opposing bats to a .222 batting average while pitching a scoreless first in seven of 10 starts, and it’s a similar story for Sanchez. He’s pitched a scoreless first in eight of 10 starts with a 2.70 ERA.

Gerritt Cole returns to Yankee Stadium today after not pitching since Game 4 of the 2024 World Series, roughly 569 days ago, and I’m willing to fade him at anything up to +100. Cole posted a 4.66 ERA across six minor league rehab starts, and this matchup sets up poorly against a Rays lineup that has the lowest whiff-rate (19%) in baseball. 

Recent history between these teams points toward another low-scoring game, with six of the last seven meetings cashing the Under. Bassitt has been excellent at home, and Detroit’s lineup is struggling badly offensively. While Flaherty hasn’t pitched well overall, Baltimore’s offense has also been inconsistent, making this matchup look more like a pitching-driven series opener.

Dodger starter Justin Wrobleski has some decent regression indicators, including a .233 BABIP. He has also been fortunate in keeping the ball in the yard, especially considering he has become a fly-ball pitcher this season with a ground-ball rate of just 39%. He isn’t fooling many hitters either, carrying a 4.9 K/9 and being forced to pitch to contact. Christian Yelich is heating up after a slow start. He settled back into the lineup last week, has already launched two home runs, and finished last season with 29 dingers in 150 games. This is a bat with 30-HR upside sitting at +700 against a pitcher with regression flags all over him. Yelich is also the only Brewer to have taken Wrobleski deep, which never hurts. There is rain everywhere and winds blowing in across much of the MLB slate today, and the projections love the current home run prices in this Dodgers-Brewers matchup.

Arizona checks every box tonight against a Rockies team it’s consistently dominated at home, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings in the desert. Michael Soroka has been dominant in Arizona with a 1.59 ERA across five home starts, and now draws a Colorado lineup ranked 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. On the other side, Tomoyuki Sugano has to navigate a D-backs offense leading MLB in runs scored over the last week, while Arizona also owns the clear bullpen edge.

This matchup features two pitchers in decent form, especially Davis Martin, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in every outing since Opening Day. Trevor McDonald also owns a solid 2.37 ERA, while both offenses have struggled lately. Four of the last five meetings between these clubs have also cashed the Under.