San Diego @ Houston props

Ha-seong Kim is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. With a 1.55 K/BB rate this year, Ha-seong Kim has shown strong plate discipline, grading out in the 89th percentile. With a .276 batting average this year, Ha-seong Kim finds himself in the 83rd percentile.

Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Martin Maldonado will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Martin Maldonado has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 9.8% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the last week. In the past 7 days, Martin Maldonado's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.5%.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 6th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Fernando Tatis Jr. has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12.1% seasonal rate to 20% in the last 7 days. Fernando Tatis Jr. has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 100.4-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 95.6-mph. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Fernando Tatis Jr.'s true offensive talent to be a .416, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .076 difference between that mark and his actual .340 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in the majors. Trent Grisham will have the handedness advantage over Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trent Grisham stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Trent Grisham has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 95.4-mph in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Manny Machado is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Manny Machado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.9% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 37.7% on the season to 70.6% over the last 7 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Manny Machado's true offensive skill to be a .376, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .042 difference between that figure and his actual .334 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.9% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Altuve will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Jose Altuve has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 10.3% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last week's worth of games.

Jose Abreu's batting average ability is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jose Abreu will hold that advantage today. Jose Abreu has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 8% seasonal rate to 21.2% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Jose Abreu has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 101.2-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal mark of 91.1-mph. Despite posting a .292 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jose Abreu has suffered from bad luck given the .057 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.

Matthew Batten has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which often leads to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Seth Lugo will have the handedness advantage against Jeremy Pena today. Jeremy Pena has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 9.9% rate last season has decreased to 4.1% this year. Jeremy Pena's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 93.2-mph EV last season has dropped off to 90.7-mph.