It's a Friday edition of MLB player props, and we have a loaded slate to work with.
From strikeouts to RBIs, from east coast to west coast, there is a little bit of everything. Here are my best MLB props for May 30.
Best MLB player props today
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Walker u3.5 Ks (-110) -
Peterson to record a win (-125) -
Machado o0.5 RBI (+140)
MLB props for May 30
Taijuan Walker Under 3.5 strikeouts (-110 at bet365)
Taijuan Walker is one of the most interesting pitchers in baseball for me this season. This is mainly because of the variance that has surrounded him over the past few seasons.
This is a guy who, within the last five years, has been around 10-1 odds to win a Cy Young and also had an expected ERA of almost 8.00 in that timeframe. Last season was a disaster. This year, he has made a partial recovery, but that's only part of the story.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been cautious with the right-hander. He had a few starts early in the year but had been coming out of the bullpen for Philly for about a month until his most recent start against the Colorado Rockies.
He went five innings against the worst offense in baseball and got the win. What is the value of this prop today? That cautious approach is likely to continue, and the Milwaukee Brewers are a much more difficult team for him to face.
Walker has been more of a flyball pitcher this season, which is a welcomed sight for a Brewers team with the second-highest ground ball rate in the sport. More importantly, though, the combo of Walker having a whiff rate in the Bottom 10th percentile and the Brewers having the second-lowest whiff rate in baseball over the last month means tons of balls will be in play.
My projection for Walker's strikeouts was 2.8, partly aided by his low expected pitch count as the Phillies look to continue building his confidence. I'd play this to -140 with that in mind.
David Peterson to record a win (-125 at DraftKings)
The Colorado Rockies are very, very bad, but they may not be at a historically bad level, given their current pace. But positive regression is unlikely to come against a lefty on the road. Just take a look and marvel at the numbers.
The Rockies are…
- Third to last in the MLB when facing lefties on the road
- Last in OPS
- Last in wRC+
- Second to last in BABIP
- Last in wOBA
- Second-to-last in batting average
David Peterson is well, David Peterson, and should be able to continue his strong start to the year with minimal fuss. Some of his hard-hit issues pop up because the Rockies have managed to maintain at least some pop in the lineup. However, Peterson should be able to lean on his 94th-percentile chase rate in such spots against a team that has the highest chase rate in the sport.
On the other side, I expect an average New York Mets offense to do enough against Kyle Freeland. He's easily the best of the Rockies starters so far this season, but that's not saying much at all. The power in the New York lineup should expose his most significant vulnerability: the hard-hit ball.
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI (+140 at bet365)
Batting third in such a strong offensive lineup is always going to have its benefits, and that certainly applies here when the San Diego Padres face a mediocre starter in Mitch Keller. Let's discuss the other aspects of the handicap, though, and what makes up my +115 projection on a Manny Machado RBI.
Keller leans heavily on two pitches in the fastball and sweeper. Machado will have the benefit of batting behind two players who crush these pitches. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads things off with a .388 batting average against the fastball and an expected batting average that's even higher.
Not to be outdone, Luis Arraez has the third-highest batting average among Padre players against the sweeper, and we are well aware of his heavily-documented overall hitting talent.
Beyond that, you have Machado's overall talent to consider.
His 29.1% FB average and launch angle match well against Keller's ground-ball tendencies, increasing his chances of driving the ball for extra bases. His .328 AVG and .563 SLG show he's hitting well, and his 12.0% Barrel% indicates quality contact.
Not only is the threat of him driving in others very much on the table, but he may also do it all on his own.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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