An injury cost me a winning day on the diamond yesterday, but with a much bigger slate tonight, there are a lot more edges and angles to look at on the mound.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for Friday, May 30.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 30
Peterson to record the win (-125)
Harrison u4.5 strikeouts (-108)
Shuster o1.5 strikeouts (+115)
Today's SP best bets
Rockies vs. Mets
The angle: It's the Rockies
The move: David Peterson to record the win (-125 at DraftKings)
The only reason the Colorado Rockies didn’t lose yesterday was because they were idle. Today, they have to deal with David Peterson, who is projected to pitch more than 18 outs with an outs total of 18.5 today.
The New York Mets are -350 on the ML and -260 on the F5 two-way ML, yet Peterson is -125 to record the win. The Colorado offense is the worst in baseball on the road, and even their rested bullpen won’t throw up donuts.
This should be the first prop you look to bet every morning before you brush your teeth. It’s the best way to fade this historically bad Colorado team.
Giants vs. Marlins
The angle: Harrison only threw 57 pitches in his last start and will have a short leash
The move: Kyle Harrison Under 4.5 strikeouts (-108 at FanDuel)
Kyle Harrison is making his second start of the season and only threw 57 pitches in his last start, going 12 outs. He projects for just 74 today, so his volume Unders are showing well, including his Under 4.5 hits allowed.
Harrison is worse than a K/inning pitcher in the big leagues and might need 5+ frames to get this Over. He shouldn't see the order a third time, and the Miami Marlins aren’t as bad at striking out as one would assume. Miami ranks 17th in K% at 17% this season and is even better vs. lefties, ranking 24th.
Harrison might be heading back to the bullpen after this short start, and getting deep with 5+ Ks on 75 or fewer pitches is the angle here.
White Sox vs. Orioles
The angle: Shuster is opening but could go 30+ pitches
The move: Jared Shuster Over 1.5 strikeouts (+115 at bet365)
This game was bumped up to 4:30 pm ET because of rain. That has forced the Chicago White Sox to use an opener in lefty Jared Shuster before Sean Burke gets the ball.
Shuster went seven outs in his last game and threw 31 pitches on the 27th. He should be able to see the order one time, and the K/inning pitcher will have a chance to flirt with the Over on this number, which is taking some money.
I’d play this to even money as there is some in-and-out risk, but the Baltimore Orioles are one of the worst K% teams vs. left-handed pitchers, and this could hit in the first frame. There might be some chance at three Ks here, but I wouldn’t worry about a ladder. Burke might jump in, but the O’s could have three or four left-handed bats in this lineup today, which helps the left-handed Shuster.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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