Houston @ New York Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Chas McCormick has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Chas McCormick's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.3-mph over the course of the season to 100.7-mph in recent games. Chas McCormick's launch angle of late (34° in the last 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 16.7° seasonal angle. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (23.6°) is quite a bit higher than his 18.6° mark last year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the game. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Clarke Schmidt today. Last season, Yordan Alvarez had an average launch angle of 12.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 17°. By putting up a .273 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Yordan Alvarez finds himself in the 78th percentile.

There has been a significant improvement in Martin Maldonado's launch angle from last season's 14.1° to 17.3° this year. Martin Maldonado has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 22.31 ft/sec to 22.81 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Despite posting a .242 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Martin Maldonado has experienced some negative variance given the .032 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .274.

Jeremy Pena's BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Jeremy Pena has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.5-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 88.3-mph average. In terms of his batting average, Jeremy Pena has had bad variance on his side this year. His .243 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .273.

Billy McKinney is penciled in 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. Billy McKinney will have the handedness advantage against Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Billy McKinney can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Billy McKinney will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.210) implies that Billy McKinney has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .183 actual batting average.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Alex Bregman's launch angle in recent games (26.8° over the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 19.7° seasonal angle. Alex Bregman has exhibited good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 99th percentile with a 0.99 K/BB rate.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jose Altuve ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Jose Altuve has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.3% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last week. Jose Altuve has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.3-mph average over the past week to his seasonal average of 94.2-mph. Jose Altuve's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 45% on the season to 61.5% in the past week.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 15th-best hitter in MLB. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage over Clarke Schmidt today. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.8°, Kyle Tucker has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 25.7° mark in the last week's worth of games. Kyle Tucker has notched a .391 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 97th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Abreu in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Over the last week, Jose Abreu's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.2% up to 23.1%. Despite posting a .289 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jose Abreu has had bad variance on his side given the .049 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.

Harrison Bader will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Harrison Bader has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 85.7-mph average to last season's 83.4-mph EV. Over the past 7 days, Harrison Bader's 35.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.5%.

DJ LeMahieu's batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). DJ LeMahieu is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. DJ LeMahieu has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today. Hitters such as DJ LeMahieu with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristian Javier who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and DJ LeMahieu will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Giancarlo Stanton in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Giancarlo Stanton will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Giancarlo Stanton's true offensive skill to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .056 difference between that figure and his actual .303 wOBA.

Anthony Rizzo is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Anthony Rizzo will have the handedness advantage over Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Anthony Rizzo has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Anthony Rizzo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Anthony Rizzo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Gleyber Torres is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Gleyber Torres has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Gleyber Torres will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Gleyber Torres has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 92.9-mph.

Anthony Volpe will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Anthony Volpe has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 89.4-mph mark. In the last 7 days, Anthony Volpe's 54.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.1%. When it comes to his batting average, Anthony Volpe has experienced some negative variance this year. His .210 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Aaron Judge is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Aaron Judge will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the last week, Aaron Judge's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 31.1% up to 40%. Aaron Judge has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 101.7-mph average to last season's 99.3-mph EV.

Jake Bauers is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Jake Bauers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristian Javier in today's game. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Bauers can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Jake Bauers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Jake Bauers's 97.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced metric to measure power) grades out in the 95th percentile this year.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage in today's game. Kyle Higashioka's launch angle of late (23° over the past 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 16.3° seasonal angle.

Ben Rortvedt will hold the platoon advantage against Cristian Javier in today's game. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ben Rortvedt has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage in today's game.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.