Cleveland @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Out of all the teams today, the 14th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.

Andres Gimenez's batting average skill is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. Andres Gimenez will have the handedness advantage against J.P. France today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andres Gimenez can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Out of all the teams today, the 14th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. Over the past 7 days, Jose Ramirez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.5% up to 13%. In the past two weeks, Jose Ramirez's 53.2% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Josh Bell ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Josh Bell is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. Out of all the teams today, the 14th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. Josh Bell has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 10.1% seasonal rate to 15.2% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Yainer Diaz is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which generally leads to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 21° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Noah Syndergaard will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz in today's game. Yainer Diaz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards the game's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 15th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage over Noah Syndergaard in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage in today's game. In notching a .392 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Kyle Tucker grades out in the 97th percentile for offensive skills.

Martin Maldonado pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage today. Martin Maldonado has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 8.7% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past 7 days. Martin Maldonado has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 88-mph EV. Compared to his seasonal average of 17°, Martin Maldonado has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 31.5° figure over the past 7 days.

Corey Julks pulls many of his flyballs (33% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Corey Julks will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Corey Julks's 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.8%. Corey Julks grades out in the 96th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (51% rate this year).

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Noah Syndergaard in today's game. Yordan Alvarez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Myles Straw in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Out of all the teams today, the 14th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. Myles Straw has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 87.8-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal figure of 85-mph. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.255) suggests that Myles Straw has been unlucky this year with his .235 actual batting average.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which generally leads to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 21° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Noah Syndergaard will have the handedness advantage over Jose Altuve today. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Altuve has had some very good luck this year. His .378 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .351.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which generally leads to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 21° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Noah Syndergaard will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena in today's matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians. Jeremy Pena is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#3-best on the slate today).

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which generally leads to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 21° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Steven Kwan in today's matchup. Steven Kwan's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased lately; his 84.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 81.2-mph in the last 14 days. Steven Kwan's 84.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 0th percentile this year.

Will Brennan's batting average skill is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Will Brennan will hold the platoon advantage over J.P. France in today's matchup. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Will Brennan stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Out of all the teams today, the 14th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. In the past 7 days, Will Brennan's 55% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Alex Bregman is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Alex Bregman has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 5.8% seasonal rate to 10.8% in the past two weeks.

Jose Abreu's batting average ability is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Abreu will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Jose Abreu's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 45.5% on the season to 60% in the past week. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Abreu's true offensive talent to be a .341, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .051 gap between that mark and his actual .290 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Chas McCormick will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Chas McCormick has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 12.3% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last week. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (23.1°) is quite a bit higher than his 18.6° angle last year. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Chas McCormick has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 29.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 23.1°.

Mauricio Dubon has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Bo Naylor has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Oscar Gonzalez has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.