Washington @ New York Picks & Props

Citi Field ranks as the #30 field in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which tends to lead to less offense. Low humidity has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast the 4th-least humid conditions on the slate at 40%. Jeff McNeil's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 87.9-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 80.8-mph over the past 14 days. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 16.7% to 9.9%.

Citi Field ranks as the #30 field in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which tends to lead to less offense. Low humidity has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast the 4th-least humid conditions on the slate at 40%. The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Trevor Williams Over the past week, Francisco Lindor's 5.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19.3%.

Citi Field ranks as the #30 field in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which tends to lead to less offense. Low humidity has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast the 4th-least humid conditions on the slate at 40%. Brandon Nimmo has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 9.6% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week. Compared to his seasonal angle of 11.4°, Brandon Nimmo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1.2°) over the past 14 days.

The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Citi Field. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Mets. Alex Call's launch angle lately (28.6° in the past 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 16.2° seasonal figure. Despite posting a .282 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alex Call has had bad variance on his side given the .038 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .320.

The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Citi Field. Omar Narvaez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Williams today. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams today. Washington's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Omar Narvaez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Omar Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Lane Thomas's BABIP talent is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Lane Thomas is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. Lane Thomas pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Mets. Lane Thomas's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 38.8% to 44.5%.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Keibert Ruiz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences today. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Mets. Keibert Ruiz has displayed favorable plate discipline this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile with a 1.72 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeimer Candelario in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Citi Field. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Mets. Jeimer Candelario has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 91.9-mph over the past week.

Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage against Justin Verlander today. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Dominic Smith stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Dominic Smith has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Mets. Dominic Smith's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, going from 45.5% on the season to 61.5% in the past week.

Brett Baty's BABIP skill is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brett Baty will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Williams today. Brett Baty has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams today. Brett Baty will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Meneses in the 80th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Joey Meneses is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Citi Field. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Mets. Joey Meneses has posted a .282 batting average this year, placing in the 86th percentile.

Daniel Vogelbach is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Daniel Vogelbach will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Williams in today's game. Daniel Vogelbach hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Daniel Vogelbach will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

CJ Abrams has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Citi Field. CJ Abrams will have the handedness advantage over Justin Verlander in today's game. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so CJ Abrams can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Luis Garcia is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Luis Garcia will have the handedness advantage against Justin Verlander today. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Luis Garcia stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Luis Garcia has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Canha in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Citi Field. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams today. Mark Canha will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. In terms of his batting average, Mark Canha has been unlucky this year. His .244 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .267.

The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Citi Field. Corey Dickerson will hold the platoon advantage against Justin Verlander in today's matchup. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Dickerson can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Mets. Compared to last season, Corey Dickerson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 11.1% to 15.5% this season.

Ildemaro Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's shallowest CF fences today. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Mets. This season, Ildemaro Vargas has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 91.7 mph compared to last year's 88.5 mph mark. By putting up a 2.08 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Ildemaro Vargas has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, placing in the 78th percentile.

Francisco Alvarez has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Tommy Pham has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Danny Mendick has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.