Detroit @ Kansas City Picks & Props

Matt Manning will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Maikel Garcia in today's game. Maikel Garcia hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-deepest CF fences today. In the past 7 days, Maikel Garcia's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12%. Maikel Garcia has been cold lately, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) over the past 14 days.

Kauffman Stadium has the 2nd-deepest fences among all major league parks — generally bad for long-balls. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Jordan Lyles will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Torkelson today. The Kansas City Royals outfield defense projects as the strongest out of every team on the slate today. Spencer Torkelson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Riley Greene is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Riley Greene is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Riley Greene will have the handedness advantage against Jordan Lyles in today's matchup.

24% of the time that Zach McKinstry has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been pinch hit for. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Zach McKinstry hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-deepest CF fences today. The Kansas City Royals outfield defense projects as the strongest out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Zach McKinstry today.

The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Jordan Lyles will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt Vierling in today's matchup. Matt Vierling has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) but may find it hard to clear the game's deepest RF fences in today's game. The Kansas City Royals outfield defense projects as the strongest out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Matt Vierling in today's game.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Kyle Isbel has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 12% of the time. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Kyle Isbel pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 80th percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards the game's deepest RF fences today. Kyle Isbel's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 90.7-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 87.6-mph in the last two weeks. Kyle Isbel has done a poor job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 7.7° angle is among the lowest in baseball since the start of last season (16th percentile).

Nick Pratto is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Nick Pratto will have the handedness advantage over Matt Manning in today's game. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 12th-weakest among all the teams today.

Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.229) may lead us to conclude that Jake Rogers has had bad variance on his side this year with his .205 actual batting average. This year, Jake Rogers's flyball exit velocity (a reliable standard to evaluate power) grades out in the 90th percentile at 96 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Baez in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Javier Baez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Javier Baez's true offensive skill to be a .308, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .055 gap between that mark and his actual .253 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kerry Carpenter in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Kerry Carpenter is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Kerry Carpenter will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Lyles in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Waters as the 10th-best hitter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP talent. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 12th-weakest among all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Drew Waters will hold that advantage in today's game.

Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 12th-weakest among all the teams today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Samad Taylor will hold that advantage in today's game. Ranking in the 89th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.82 ft/sec this year, Samad Taylor is quite quick.

Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Eric Haase's true offensive skill to be a .301, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .060 gap between that figure and his actual .241 wOBA.

MJ Melendez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. MJ Melendez will have the handedness advantage over Matt Manning today. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 12th-weakest among all the teams today.

Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Nicky Lopez will hold the platoon advantage against Matt Manning in today's matchup. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 12th-weakest among all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Nicky Lopez will hold that advantage today.

Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Akil Baddoo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Lyles in today's matchup. The Kansas City Royals don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Akil Baddoo is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the whole game. Akil Baddoo has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 88.2-mph average to last season's 85-mph EV.

Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Andy Ibanez has had some very poor luck this year. His .292 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .323. This year, Andy Ibanez's 12.2% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 81st percentile among his peers. Andy Ibanez ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (22.4% rate this year).

Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°. Michael Massey will hold the platoon advantage over Matt Manning today. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 12th-weakest among all the teams today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Michael Massey will hold that advantage today.

Salvador Perez has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Bobby Witt Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.