Atlanta @ Cleveland Picks & Props

Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup. Cal Quantrill will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Marcell Ozuna in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Marcell Ozuna in today's matchup. Marcell Ozuna's launch angle of late (1.3° over the last 14 days) is a significant dropoff from his 13.5° seasonal mark. From last year to this one, Marcell Ozuna's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15.9% to 12.4%.

Mike Soroka will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Amed Rosario today. Amed Rosario hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and and will be challenged by MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Amed Rosario tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Mike Soroka. Amed Rosario's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 90.3-mph seasonal average has fallen to 86.8-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. In the past two weeks, Amed Rosario has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Cal Quantrill will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Murphy today. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Sean Murphy today. In the past week, Sean Murphy's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.3%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Sean Murphy's true offensive skill to be a .367, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .040 deviation between that figure and his actual .407 wOBA.

Matt Olson will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.373) suggests that Matt Olson has experienced some positive variance this year with his .391 actual wOBA. Checking in at the 21st percentile, Matt Olson sits with a .267 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Josh Bell is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather on the slate at 84°. The Atlanta Braves infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team playing today.

Progressive Field has the 3rd-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather on the slate at 84°. The Atlanta Braves infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team playing today. David Fry will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Andres Gimenez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather on the slate at 84°. Andres Gimenez will hold the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka today.

Jose Ramirez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 91.6-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 84.8-mph in the past 7 days. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.266) may lead us to conclude that Jose Ramirez has had some very good luck this year with his .283 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Myles Straw in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather on the slate at 84°. Myles Straw has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (48%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Atlanta Braves infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team playing today.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather on the slate at 84°. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Orlando Arcia's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 104.3-mph of late. Ranking in the 91st percentile, Orlando Arcia has posted a .291 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Brennan in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather on the slate at 84°. Will Brennan will hold the platoon advantage over Mike Soroka today. The Atlanta Braves have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Will Brennan stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather on the slate at 84°. Eddie Rosario will hold the platoon advantage against Cal Quantrill in today's game. Eddie Rosario pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Eddie Rosario has made notable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 5.5% rate last year to 11.1% this year.

Bo Naylor has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Michael Harris II has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Austin Riley has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Ozzie Albies has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Steven Kwan has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.