Baltimore @ New York Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Gunnar Henderson will hold the platoon advantage over Domingo German in today's matchup. Gunnar Henderson has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 12.8% seasonal rate to 20% in the past 7 days.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Billy McKinney will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Wells in today's matchup. Billy McKinney is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#1-worst on the slate today). Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Billy McKinney will hold that advantage today. In the past two weeks, Billy McKinney's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.2-mph over the course of the season to 98-mph lately.

Anthony Rizzo is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Anthony Rizzo will hold the platoon advantage against Tyler Wells in today's matchup. Anthony Rizzo pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Anthony Rizzo will hold that advantage in today's game.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Jorge Mateo has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .269 mark is a fair amount lower than his .331 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Ranking in the 99th percentile for Sprint Speed at 30 ft/sec this year, Jorge Mateo is quite toolsy.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Cedric Mullins II ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Cedric Mullins II will have the handedness advantage over Domingo German today. Cedric Mullins II pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins II's launch angle this season (22.7°) is considerably better than his 17.3° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Adley Rutschman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Over the past week, Adley Rutschman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 97.7-mph of late. Compared to last year, Adley Rutschman has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.7% to 20.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Gleyber Torres is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Gleyber Torres has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Gleyber Torres will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Josh Donaldson ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Josh Donaldson will hold that advantage in today's game. The Barrel% of Josh Donaldson has significantly improved, with an increase from 9.9% last year to 23.2% this season. This season, Josh Donaldson has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 101.4 mph compared to last year's 94.7 mph mark.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Anthony Volpe will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Anthony Volpe has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph to 94.1-mph in the past week's worth of games. Anthony Volpe's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 47.8% on the season to 64% over the past 14 days. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.252) provides evidence that Anthony Volpe has experienced some negative variance this year with his .221 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adam Frazier in the 75th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Adam Frazier will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Domingo German today. Adam Frazier's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (5.6° over the past two weeks) is considerably worse than his 9.4° seasonal mark. Adam Frazier's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 14.4% to 17.6%.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Aaron Hicks pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. By putting up a 1.73 K/BB rate this year, Aaron Hicks has displayed impressive plate discipline, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Giancarlo Stanton ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Giancarlo Stanton is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Giancarlo Stanton will hold that advantage in today's game. Giancarlo Stanton has been unlucky this year, posting a .284 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .361 — a .077 gap.

Harrison Bader is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Harrison Bader will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Harrison Bader's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (19.6° over the past 7 days) is considerably higher than his 14° seasonal angle. Compared to last season, Harrison Bader has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.5% to 22.5% this season.

Ramon Urias is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Ramon Urias has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Ramon Urias has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the past 14 days. Ramon Urias has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects DJ LeMahieu in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. DJ LeMahieu is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. DJ LeMahieu has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like DJ LeMahieu tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Wells.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to last season, Kyle Higashioka has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 40.9% to 47.2% this season. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.319) implies that Kyle Higashioka has had some very poor luck this year with his .262 actual wOBA. Kyle Higashioka's 11.2% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 80th percentile since the start of last season.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.4% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 22.3°, Anthony Santander has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 27.7° mark in the last 14 days.

Jake Bauers is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate. Jake Bauers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Wells in today's game. Jake Bauers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Jake Bauers has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 20% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week's worth of games.

Jose Trevino has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Austin Hays has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Ryan O'Hearn has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.