San Francisco @ Toronto Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 3rd-worst venue in the league for right-handed base hits. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 11-mph in this contest, the best of the day for pitchers. Logan Webb will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against George Springer in today's game. George Springer has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 9.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 7 days. Compared to his seasonal angle of 9.4°, George Springer has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-3.2°) in the past two weeks.

Casey Schmitt hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Belt ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Belt has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Brandon Belt will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Webb today. Extreme groundball batters like Brandon Belt tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Webb.

Thairo Estrada's batting average skill is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Thairo Estrada is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Extreme groundball hitters like Thairo Estrada are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Trevor Richards. Compared to last year, Thairo Estrada has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.2% to 19.3% this season.

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Webb in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Daulton Varsho has had some very poor luck this year. His .299 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .330.

Luis Matos's batting average skill is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Matos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. A consistent launch angle is a proxy for good hitting, and Luis Matos has been very consistent with his recently, posting a 34.6° launch angle standard deviation in the last two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Michael Conforto ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Michael Conforto will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Richards in today's game. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Conforto can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Kevin Kiermaier will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Webb today. Kevin Kiermaier hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. The San Francisco Giants infield defense projects as the weakest among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Kevin Kiermaier will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Cavan Biggio will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Webb in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Cavan Biggio will hold that advantage in today's game. Cavan Biggio has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 7% rate last year to 15.1% this season. Cavan Biggio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 20.3% to 28.8%.

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Batters such as Danny Jansen with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Logan Webb who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Danny Jansen will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Last season, Danny Jansen had an average launch angle of 15° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 20.1°. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Danny Jansen's 34.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.6%.

Patrick Bailey is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers.

Whit Merrifield's batting average skill is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Whit Merrifield will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Whit Merrifield's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 42.5% to 49.1%. Sporting a .298 batting average this year, Whit Merrifield grades out in the 94th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Joc Pederson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Joc Pederson is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. Joc Pederson will hold the platoon advantage against Trevor Richards in today's matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Joc Pederson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Brandon Crawford will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Richards in today's game. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Crawford stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Despite posting a .287 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brandon Crawford has been unlucky given the .030 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blake Sabol in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Blake Sabol will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Richards today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Blake Sabol has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Blake Sabol has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 26.7% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Matt Chapman usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Webb. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage in today's game.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

J.D. Davis has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

LaMonte Wade Jr. has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.