New York @ Houston Picks & Props

THE BAT X projects Jose Altuve in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The New York Mets outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate. Jose Altuve will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Martin Maldonado pulls many of his flyballs (33.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The New York Mets outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate. Martin Maldonado will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Martin Maldonado has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 87.4-mph figure.

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which generally leads to less offense. Tylor Megill will hold the platoon advantage over Mauricio Dubon in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 87.7-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 84.2-mph in the past week's worth of games. Mauricio Dubon's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (5.1°) is a considerable dropoff from his 10.6° mark last season. Mauricio Dubon has shown bad plate discipline this year, grading out in the 20th percentile with a 3.65 K/BB rate.

The New York Mets outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate. Chas McCormick will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Chas McCormick has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 86.8-mph figure. Chas McCormick's launch angle this season (16.1°) is considerably better than his 12.6° figure last year. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (31.1° over the past two weeks) is considerably better than his 21.2° seasonal mark.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 16th-best batter in the league, via THE BAT X. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage over Tylor Megill in today's matchup. The New York Mets outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate. Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of New York (#3-worst of all teams today).

THE BAT X projects Tommy Pham in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Tommy Pham is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Extreme flyball bats like Tommy Pham are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristian Javier. Tommy Pham has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 94.3-mph EV. Tommy Pham has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last year's 93.8-mph mark.

THE BAT X projects Francisco Lindor in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Francisco Lindor has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 11.7% seasonal rate to 27.3% over the past week. Francisco Lindor has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.5-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph EV. Francisco Lindor's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 14.3% to 21.8%.

THE BAT X projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF fences in MLB. The New York Mets outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate. Jeremy Pena will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jeremy Pena has posted a .271 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 75th percentile (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

THE BAT X projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The New York Mets outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate. Alex Bregman will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

THE BAT X projects Yainer Diaz in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. The New York Mets outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate. Yainer Diaz will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Yainer Diaz has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 14.9% seasonal rate to 21.1% over the last week.

THE BAT X projects Brett Baty in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Brett Baty will hold the platoon advantage over Cristian Javier in today's game. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Brett Baty is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the entire game. Brett Baty has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Brett Baty are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristian Javier.

Corey Julks pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The New York Mets outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate. Corey Julks will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Corey Julks has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 4.5% seasonal rate to 10% in the past 7 days. Corey Julks's launch angle of late (29° in the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 18.8° seasonal figure.

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for dingers. Omar Narvaez will have the handedness advantage over Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Omar Narvaez is guaranteed to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Omar Narvaez grades out in the 96th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (20.4% rate since the start of last season).

THE BAT X projects Starling Marte in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Starling Marte is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. Extreme groundball bats like Starling Marte usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristian Javier. Starling Marte has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.3-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 87.9-mph figure. Starling Marte has been unlucky this year, putting up a .284 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .047 disparity.

THE BAT X projects Jeff McNeil in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jeff McNeil will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristian Javier in today's matchup. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Jeff McNeil is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game. Jeff McNeil has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, grading out in the 95th percentile with a 1.22 K/BB rate. Jeff McNeil has compiled a .271 batting average this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.

THE BAT X projects Brandon Nimmo in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Brandon Nimmo will hold the platoon advantage against Cristian Javier in today's matchup. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game. Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

THE BAT X projects Jose Abreu in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Jose Abreu is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. The New York Mets outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst on the slate. Jose Abreu will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Jose Abreu has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.1-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.6-mph EV.

Daniel Vogelbach will have the handedness advantage against Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Daniel Vogelbach is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the entire game. Daniel Vogelbach has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.9-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 91.9-mph. Daniel Vogelbach's launch angle of late (28.7° over the last week) is a considerable increase over his 11.9° seasonal angle. Daniel Vogelbach has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 88th percentile with a 1.53 K/BB rate.

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.