Houston @ Cleveland Picks & Props

Shane Bieber will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Corey Julks today. Corey Julks will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Corey Julks has compiled a .291 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 13th percentile for offensive ability (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). Corey Julks has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, grading out in the 2nd percentile with a 7.21 K/BB rate.

The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams today. Steven Kwan's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 85.3-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 79.1-mph in the past 7 days. Steven Kwan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, decreasing from 47.9% on the season to 25% over the past 7 days. Steven Kwan has been cold of late, compiling a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) over the past 14 days.

Kyle Tucker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and and will be challenged by baseball's 7th-deepest CF fences today. The Cleveland Guardians outfield defense grades out as the 5th-best on the slate. Kyle Tucker will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Kyle Tucker's launch angle recently (9.7° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is considerably worse than his 12.9° seasonal figure. Kyle Tucker's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (11.9°) is a significant dropoff from his 19.2° mark last year.

Brandon Bielak will hold the platoon advantage over Amed Rosario in today's matchup. Amed Rosario hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams today. Amed Rosario's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 89.2-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 83.6-mph in the last 14 days. Amed Rosario has been cold of late, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) in the last 14 days.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Chas McCormick has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

THE BAT X projects Gabriel Arias in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Gabriel Arias has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Gabriel Arias will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

THE BAT X projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

THE BAT X projects Jose Ramirez in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

THE BAT X projects Alex Bregman in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.6% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

THE BAT X projects Josh Bell in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Josh Bell is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Josh Bell will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

THE BAT X projects Myles Straw in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Myles Straw has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (47.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences today. Myles Straw will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

THE BAT X projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Progressive Field has the 3rd-shallowest LF dimensions among all parks. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Jeremy Pena has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 6.4% seasonal rate to 12.1% in the past two weeks.

THE BAT X projects Will Brennan in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Will Brennan will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Bielak today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Will Brennan is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch all game.

THE BAT X projects Andres Gimenez in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Andres Gimenez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Andres Gimenez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Bielak in today's matchup.

THE BAT X projects Yainer Diaz in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate today. Yainer Diaz has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 13% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

THE BAT X projects Jose Abreu in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jose Abreu is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate today.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Mike Zunino pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Mike Zunino will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Cesar Salazar will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Bieber today. The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cesar Salazar has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate today.

Progressive Field has the 3rd-shallowest LF dimensions among all parks. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate today.

Progressive Field has the 3rd-shallowest LF dimensions among all parks. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Cam Gallagher will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Cam Gallagher's quickness has gotten better this year. His 24.88 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.38 ft/sec now.

Mauricio Dubon has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.