Toronto @ New York Picks & Props

Citi Field ranks as the #30 venue in the majors for left-handed batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Citi Field's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to less offense. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 16.7% to 10.1%. Jeff McNeil has been cold lately, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) over the last 14 days.

Citi Field ranks as the #30 venue in the majors for left-handed batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Citi Field's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to less offense. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate. Brandon Nimmo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, decreasing from 13.4% to 9.6%. Brandon Nimmo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, going from 9.6% on the season to 0% in the past 7 days.

THE BAT X projects Brett Baty in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Brett Baty is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Brett Baty will have the handedness advantage over Chris Bassitt today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brett Baty stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Brett Baty has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage against Justin Verlander in today's game. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Daulton Varsho's launch angle lately (27.1° in the past week's worth of games) is a significant increase over his 17.3° seasonal figure. Daulton Varsho has been unlucky this year, compiling a .284 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .047 gap.

THE BAT X projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Kevin Kiermaier will hold the platoon advantage over Justin Verlander in today's matchup. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kevin Kiermaier can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Kevin Kiermaier hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences today. Kevin Kiermaier's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, rising from 47.4% on the season to 53.8% in the past two weeks.

THE BAT X projects Francisco Lindor in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. Francisco Lindor will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Francisco Lindor has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 9.5% seasonal rate to 20% over the last week.

Daniel Vogelbach will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Bassitt in today's matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daniel Vogelbach has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Daniel Vogelbach hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Daniel Vogelbach will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Daniel Vogelbach has compiled a .335 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 77th percentile.

THE BAT X projects Alejandro Kirk in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. Alejandro Kirk has been unlucky this year, compiling a .308 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .033 deviation. Alejandro Kirk has displayed strong plate discipline this year, grading out in the 98th percentile with a 0.97 K/BB rate.

THE BAT X projects Matt Chapman in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Matt Chapman has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 12.9% rate last year to 20.9% this year. Matt Chapman has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last year's 92.2-mph figure.

THE BAT X projects Whit Merrifield in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. Whit Merrifield's launch angle lately (22.2° in the last week's worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 14.6° seasonal mark. Whit Merrifield's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 42.5% to 49.7%. Whit Merrifield has put up a .287 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 89th percentile (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. Mark Vientos will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Brandon Belt has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. Brandon Belt will have the handedness advantage over Justin Verlander in today's matchup. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Belt has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Brandon Belt's launch angle recently (28.7° in the last week's worth of games) is significantly higher than his 17.7° seasonal angle.

THE BAT X projects George Springer in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. George Springer is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. George Springer has been unlucky this year, putting up a .314 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .353 — a .039 deviation. George Springer has displayed good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 80th percentile with a 1.69 K/BB rate.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. Cavan Biggio will hold the platoon advantage over Justin Verlander in today's game. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cavan Biggio can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Cavan Biggio has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 7% rate last season to 12.5% this season. Cavan Biggio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 20.3% to 29.2%.

THE BAT X projects Starling Marte in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. Starling Marte will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Starling Marte has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 94.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 90.4-mph. Starling Marte's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, rising from 39.4% on the season to 64.3% in the past week's worth of games.

THE BAT X projects Francisco Alvarez in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. Francisco Alvarez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Francisco Alvarez has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10% seasonal rate to 16% in the past 14 days. Francisco Alvarez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.9-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 87.9-mph figure.

THE BAT X projects Mark Canha in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks. Mark Canha will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Mark Canha has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 91-mph. Mark Canha's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 14.6% to 20%.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.