Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 25, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
NYY
@
PHI
Sat, Jul 25 • 6:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-131)
I'd play the Over 8.5 to -150. Both pitching setups have obvious stress points. Keller’s minor league numbers are strong, but a debuting pitcher or bullpen-bulk plan against the Yankees is still a difficult ask.
The Philadelphia Phillies have their own scoring path against Weathers, whose history against this lineup is ugly. He owns a 9.53 ERA in three career appearances against Philadelphia, and it's easy to see why. His barrel and hard-hit rate have always been an issue, and this year is no different, with his barrel rate sitting in the bottom 9% of baseball. That's always going to be an issue against a lineup with the likes of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber
NYY (-126)
The road to the majors for 32-year-old Brian Keller is admirable, but I’m fading the spot. It is unclear whether Keller will open or work as the bulk reliever, but either way, this is his first MLB appearance against a New York Yankees lineup built around power.
New York enters with an MLB-best 135 home runs, giving it a clear edge against an unproven, fastball-heavy arm likely to cover real innings. Ryan Weathers is not easy to trust, but the Yankees get the better look against an uncertain Philly pitching plan. Good to -140.
CLE
@
TB
Sat, Jul 25 • 6:10 PM ET
CHC
@
PIT
Sat, Jul 25 • 6:40 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
Paul Skenes has a lofty 5.27 ERA over his last five starts, with the Pirates cashing the Over in each of those games. Both bullpens are also shaky, with Pittsburgh’s pen owning the 10th-highest ERA in MLB (4.40), slightly worse than Chicago's (4.04).
CHC (+114)
Paul Skenes’ ERA is up to 3.43 compared to his 2.35 career average, while Cubs starter Shota Imanaga is trending up with a stingy 1.62 ERA over his last three outings. Imanaga will dominate a Pirates lineup that’s missing three everyday players and ranks 19th in runs scored as well as 20th in SLG since the All-Star break.
ATL
@
BAL
Sat, Jul 25 • 7:05 PM ET
Drake Baldwin o0.5 Total Home Runs (+310)
Drake Baldwin has gone deep four times over his last seven games while posting a .429 ISO. His air-contact profile supports the power surge, and Brandon Young has allowed plenty of elevated contact lately. Baltimore’s bullpen has also surrendered 2.16 HR/9 recently, giving Baldwin multiple paths to another homer tonight.
Generous prices all around here, take this SGP to +550. Taylor Ward has come across to score in four of his last six overall, including twice last night. He often hits ahead of Pete Alonso, who has an elite-rated matchup on Batters-Box.com with Braves SP Bryce Elder, whom he's 4-for-14 against all-time with a dinger. Matt Olson homered last night and brings a solid .929 OPS vs. righties into this tilt.
HOU
@
CHW
Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+232)
Yordan Alvarez enters with three homers in his last six games while carrying a .438 ISO, 21.1% barrel rate, and 52.6% hard-hit rate. Sean Burke has shown some vulnerability against left-handed bats, and the White Sox bullpen’s recent HR profile gives Alvarez another route to leave the yard tonight.
COL
@
MIL
Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
ATH
@
MIN
Sat, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
SEA
@
TEX
Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
u7.5 (-112)
Nathan Eovaldi's biggest issues have been home runs and lefty hitters.
Thankfully for him, Seattle's not built to take advantage. They've been awful at the place since the break, and their LHH rank third-worst in ISO since the start of July.
A solid outing from him and a great bullpen behind him will keep this low scoring.
TEX (-103)
Bryan Woo's road ERA is four runs higher than what he's posted at home. He's getting pummeled, with a .461 SLG% that is nearly twice as high as his home mark.
The Rangers rank third in FB% and second in line drive rate since the All-Star break. They'll jump on Woo early and ride their bullpen to victory at home.
LAD
@
NYM
Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
Nolan McLean (108 Stuff+) has been at the top of his game, posting a 2.08 ERA since May 31. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (111 Pitching+) has also been stellar (0.79 WHIP since May 18), so fans are in for a pitching duel.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto can lead with his potent splitter (.178 wOBA) against a New York Mets lineup that has the lowest runs above average (-5.4) per 100 pitches against the offering this month. On the flip side, New York's bullpen (6.37 FIP this month) is the weak link, and Juan Soto will either be absent or hampered (MRI on his calf today).
CIN
@
STL
Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
HOU
@
CHW
Sun, Jul 26 • 2:10 PM ET
HOU (-103)
This matchup sits at flat pick 'em odds on the board. Houston’s bullpen leads the entire slate with an elite 23.4 percent K-BB rate over the last two weeks. Backing Ronel Blanco and the Astros at nearly even money against a struggling White Sox lineup (85 wRC+) offers strong value.
SEA
@
TEX
Sun, Jul 26 • 2:35 PM ET
SEA (-107)
Betting against Jacob deGrom requires caution, but Texas’s overall bullpen metrics have cratered recently, sitting at a 166 ERA- and 5.15 xFIP. Seattle’s pitching group remains far more reliable with Logan Gilbert taking the ball. Getting Seattle near pick 'em odds (-104) offers strong value.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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