Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 27, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
SEA
@
TEX
Mon, Jul 27 • 2:35 PM ET
o7.5 (-121)
The Over has enough paths with both offenses carrying wRC+ marks above 100 over the last week and the total sitting at just 7.5. Seattle’s bullpen has struggled with a 5.02 xERA lately, while Texas’ relief corps owns a 7.07 ERA across the last two weeks overall in this spot.
SEA (-131)
George Kirby gives Seattle the clear pitching edge after posting a 2.71 FIP over his last three starts while limiting homers and walks. Kumar Rocker has been more vulnerable, especially to power, and the Mariners’ offense enters in improved form with a 102 wRC+ over the last week overall today.
AZ
@
PIT
Mon, Jul 27 • 6:40 PM ET
AZ (+101)
Merrill Kelly has been strong this month, giving up two earned runs or fewer in all four of his July starts. The Pirates, meanwhile, can't get anything going at the plate, ranking 29th in OPS over the past week. The Diamondbacks have been the complete opposite, sitting second in OPS during that stretch, making this a tough matchup for Mitch Keller, who has struggled badly at home with a 5.68 ERA.
Tonight's starting pitching matchup makes the Over an automatic play. Merrill Kelly enters with a first percentile xERA (7.25), and Mitch Keller isn't much better in the 13th (5.23). Gabriel Moreno is batting .325 vs. righties this season, and .409 since the All-Star break. Nick Gonzalez is also on a roll since the second half began, batting .359. Play to +525.
BAL
@
DET
Mon, Jul 27 • 6:40 PM ET
PHI
@
MIA
Mon, Jul 27 • 6:40 PM ET
The Phillies should take the series opener from the Marlins on the strength of another solid Zack Wheeler start, combined with a big edge in bullpen xERA over the last two weeks (3.69 vs. 4.94). Not only does Wheeler have a 2.55 ERA in July, but he's also fanned 43 batters in just 24 2/3 innings. Miami has the sixth-most Ks since the All-Star break (91). Finally, I'm loving how the Alec Bohm RBI prop boosts this SGP from +180 to +525. Bohm is 4-for-6 vs. Tyler Phillips all-time and is hitting a solid .278 since the break with a team-leading 10 RBI. Play to +500.
TOR
@
WAS
Mon, Jul 27 • 6:45 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+380)
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
CLE
@
CIN
Mon, Jul 27 • 7:10 PM ET
ATL
@
NYM
Mon, Jul 27 • 7:10 PM ET
NYY
@
CHW
Mon, Jul 27 • 7:40 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
I’m playing the Over because Schultz gives New York too many ways to build offense. The Yankees do not need a perfect travel spot if they are getting free traffic and airborne contact from a pitcher allowing a 63.3% air-ball rate.
Chicago can contribute enough on the other side, too. The White Sox are not a pure power offense, but their .324 OBP and 381 walks give them a path to pressure Max Fried into traffic. Fried is Fried but you get the sense that the White Sox offense won't have to do much here. I'd play this to 9.
NYY (-137)
I’m backing the New York Yankees and would play them up to -150.
Noah Schultz’s profile is a poor fit against this lineup. He owns a 6.07 xERA, near-11% barrel rate, and a bottom-15th percentile walk rate. That is a bad mix against a Yankees offense built to punish free traffic and loud contact. Even without Aaron Judge, New York remains in the AL East race because of strong pitching and impact contact, ranking first in barrel rate and third in hard-hit rate. This is the right matchup for the Yankees to do damage early
CHC
@
STL
Mon, Jul 27 • 7:45 PM ET
HOU
@
LAA
Mon, Jul 27 • 9:38 PM ET
BOS
@
ATH
Mon, Jul 27 • 9:40 PM ET
BOS -1.5 (+101)
I actually like A's starter Jack Perkins in spite of his 6.75 ERA. His under-the-hood metrics all grade out better than the results have shown, but pitching at Sutter Health Park has proven to be a minefield for him and most of the Athletics' hurlers. The Over is also in play, but I like Boston's bats, which should include a debuting Curtis Mead, enough to take the run line for the red-hot visitors.
MIL
@
SF
Mon, Jul 27 • 9:45 PM ET
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
2026 World Series Odds: Dodgers Remain a Step Above the Competition
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