Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 11, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
LAA
@
CLE
Mon, May 11 • 6:10 PM ET
u7.5 (+104)
The Angels rank 24th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and own the worst walk rate in baseball, while Cleveland has been equally futile offensively, posting a 91 wRC+ over that same stretch.
Neither lineup has shown the consistency to threaten this number, and Los Angeles has gone Under the total in eight of their last 10 games.
CLE -1.5 (+130)
Cantillo's changeup grades at the 88th percentile in run value, and his 95th percentile extension makes him difficult to square up consistently.
Without a named starter, the Angels figure to deploy their bullpen tonight, and Los Angeles relievers have surrendered home runs at the highest rate in baseball over the last two weeks.
NYY
@
BAL
Mon, May 11 • 6:35 PM ET
TB
@
TOR
Mon, May 11 • 7:07 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+300)
Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
AZ
@
TEX
Mon, May 11 • 8:05 PM ET
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Corbin Carroll has historically hit Nathan Eovaldi well, going 5-for-13 against him with a double, triple, and homer. The Diamondbacks star is showing signs of heating up after homering Thursday and doubling Friday. Eovaldi has already surrendered 10 home runs this season, and Carroll’s speed plus extra-base upside makes this prop attractive tonight.
Nathan Eovaldi o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
Nathan Eovaldi is starting to find his groove on the mound again. The veteran right-hander has cashed the Over in strikeouts in back-to-back starts, piling up 15 Ks during that span, including eight against the Yankees. Arizona has been striking out frequently lately, and with Eovaldi allowing just one earned run across his last two outings, expect another sharp performance.
SEA
@
HOU
Mon, May 11 • 8:10 PM ET
Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+520)
I will fade the Houston Astros every chance I get. Their starters are weak, and the bullpen is near the bottom of the barrel. Today, they’re turning to Peter Lambert, who is pitching above expectations and coming off a season-high 104 pitches. The quality could dip today, and right-handed hitters have done most of the damage against him. Julio Rodríguez will not close at +520 to homer. This number could fall to +400, and I’d still bet it. The right-handed slugger is slashing .348/.375/.717 over his last 11 games with four home runs and five more extra-base hits. His production away from home has also stood out. If he doesn’t get to Lambert early, the Houston bullpen still ranks among the worst in baseball in home runs allowed and has been heavily used over the last two weeks.
SEA (-140)
George Kirby has been surgical this season, allowing just a 2.08 BB/9, and that’s not a good matchup for the Houston Astros lineup. Kirby isn’t going to hand out free passes and then leave pitches over the heart of the plate for aggressive, mistake-hitting batters like Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to launch into the seats. Instead, Kirby is going to force Houston to string together multiple hits, and that’s a major issue for an Astros lineup that lacks depth and has struggled to consistently turn the lineup over. The Seattle Mariners are trading around -140 against Houston, but I think they should be closer to -165 favorites.
SF
@
LAD
Mon, May 11 • 10:10 PM ET
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
u8.0 (-120)
If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.
Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.
MIL (-110)
Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.
Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.
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