One of the two spots in the CONCACAF Nations League final will be determined on tonight when the United States host Jamaica at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Our soccer betting odds have the Americans heavily favored to win in regulation.
Gregg Berhalter has one of his strongest sides in quite some time, and the United States will need their stars to step up if they hope to remain the only country to lift the trophy in this competition. They lost their last match in the tournament but advanced on aggregate 4-2 over Trinidad & Tobago.
Jamaica will be without multiple key players, putting manager Heimir Hallgrimsson in a bit of a bind. That said, his side have won their last four matches outside of home soil and are unbeaten in seven straight away fixtures and they’ll look to veteran keeper Andre Blake to keep the Yanks at bay.
Our United States vs Jamaica picks and predictions for Thursday, March 21 break down the betting markets and identify one of the few value plays available for what should be a tightly contested semi-final.
USA vs Jamaica best odds
 USA |
 Jamaica |
|
|---|---|---|
| -286 | Moneyline | +660 |
| +340 | Draw | +340 |
| Over 2.5 (-129) | Total | Under 2.5 (-118) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on March 21, 2024.
USA vs Jamaica picks and predictions
It’s been a while since the United States have been able to field a lineup as strong as what they’ll likely roll out tonight. Gregg Berhalter has the MMA midfield available as Yunus Musah, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams will likely take the pitch together for the first time since the 2022 World Cup.
But it’s the left side of the USMNT formation that will be Jamaica’s undoing. Christian Pulisic is having one of his best seasons since moving to Europe. His goal at the weekend has given him 20 goal contributions for AC Milan, and his 12 goals scored in all competitions are the most he’s scored in his European career.
But he’s not alone in having a career year. Left-back Antonee Robinson has been a mainstay in Fulham’s lineup, putting in terrific performances for the Premier League side. Jedi has been linked to moves this summer to some big-name clubs, including the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, and Bayern Munich.
Leon Bailey's absence on Jamaica’s right flank looms large for the Reggae Boyz. He’s had a strong campaign for Aston Villa, with nine goals and eight assists in 33 appearances for the London-based club.
But after breaking curfew in Jamaica’s international camp in November, both he and Trevante Stewart were suspended by Heimir Hallgrimsson. It leaves Jamaica’s attack quite bare, as Shamar Nicholson and Demarai Gray are also suspended through bookings — with Gray’s coming via a red card in their November victory over Canada.
When these sides get together, the scores tend to be low. The last four meetings have seen fewer than three goals, with the last two ending in stalemates. But the Yanks have not lost to Jamaica since a 2019 friendly, and those last four meetings all came with the Americans fielding mostly stateside-based squads.
The last time they fielded a lineup similar to what Berhalter will put on the team sheet today was back in 2021, as the Americans rolled to a 4-1 win. And that lineup was still nowhere near as in-form or talented as what we’ll see in this one. In addition, Jamaica will be without their best defender as Brentford’s Ethan Pinnock is recovering from an ankle injury.
With Jamaica missing their best attacking threats, and the stellar form of Pulisic, Jedi, and others in the squad, I am anticipating a win by at least two goals. There isn’t much value on the board for this one, but with TonyBet offering the Asian handicap of USA -1.5 at plus odds, we have a strong path to some profit.
My best bet: USA -1.5 Asian handicap (+102 at TonyBet)
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USA vs Jamaica same-game parlay
USA -1.5
Christian Pulisic anytime goal
USA Over four corners
Pulisic has been tearing up defenses in Italy and across Europe this season. Now, he’s going to face a back line missing Pinnock and relying on players from MLS and lower-tier clubs from England and the United States. And don’t forget that Captain America is also the designated penalty and free-kick taker for this squad. I’ll be surprised if he’s not on the scoresheet before the night’s end.
The last five meetings between these two countries have featured five or more corner kicks for the Americans. Blake is a very good keeper and can come up with some spectacular saves, which should help drive up that corner count.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
USA vs Jamaica side and Over/Under analysis
Those looking to bet on the Americans to win will be laying heavy juice. The 3-way money line sees the USMNT priced at -260 or more, while you can get odds of up to +750 on the away team to win in regulation. The draw pays as high as +370 for the match to go into extra time.
The absences on the Jamaican side are a driving force in the overwhelming odds. So is the fact that the Americans have such a strong side available, and are playing on home soil. The Americans have also gone unbeaten in six straight against Jamaica.
The total is fairly split, with the Under slightly favored at most books. This goes back to the lack of attacking threat for Jamaica and is compounded by the fact that West Ham striker Michail Antonio hasn’t scored a goal for the national team in more than two years.
There’s also the Berhalter factor to take into consideration. Quite often, the embattled USMNT manager will look to protect leads once he’s ahead, rather than build upon them. That said, they might still be able to get to three goals without much effort given Jamaica’s missing players. Personally I’ll be staying away from the total.
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USA vs Jamaica game info
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, March 21, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
| Weather: | Indoor match |
USA vs Jamaica key injuries
USA: Luca de la Torre M (Out), Josh Sargent F (Out).
Jamaica: Leon Bailey F (Out), Shamar Nicholson F (Out), Demarai Gray F (Out), Ethan Pinnock D (Out).
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