It’s the UEFA Super Cup on Wednesday, and Champions League winners PSG face Europa League winners Aston Villa in Salzburg in European soccer’s annual curtain-raiser.
PSG are the better team and rightful favorites in this game. However, this is still a glorified preseason friendly, which is why my PSG vs. Aston Villa predictions think that the draw in regulation is offering the best value.
Read on for my free picks for Aug. 12.
PSG vs Aston Villa picks and predictions
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TOP PICK
Who will win PSG vs Aston Villa: Draw
Kalshi probability: 26%
Luis Enrique’s PSG drew 2-2 with Tottenham in this game last season, before winning on penalties. Despite being the best team in Europe, victory is not assured inside 90 minutes.
They face an Aston Villa team with Unai Emery in charge. He’s won the Europa League five times with three different clubs.
His plan will be to break up the midfield three and in particular the supply lines into the flanks, which are PSG’s most dangerous avenue of attack.
The other key factor here is the hangover from the World Cup, with just 24 days separating this game and the final. PSG, in particular, welcomed back many players late into preseason, meaning Enrique needs to juggle starting his best team, against potential injury risk.
With both teams likely to treat this as a preseason game, albeit an important one, we could see some expected starters benched. Keeping their players fresh and healthy for the long season ahead is arguably more important than victory here.
This role as a final warmup game for the season has been evident in recent seasons, and eight of the last 11 Super Cups have been level after 90 minutes.
PSG vs Aston Villa Over/Under pick: Under 2.5
Kalshi probability: 51%
PSG’s attack is lightning quick and dangerous on the flanks, and we saw across last season how clinical they can be in the final third.
Villa have seen some turnover in their squad since last season, and bedding in those new names will take some time, but at its core this is a very talented team. Even though striker Ollie Watkins went to the World Cup with England, who lasted until the third-place playoff, he should be fresh given his lack of playing time, which benefits Villa hugely here.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia didn’t go to the World Cup, and will almost certainly get the full game for the Parisians.
With both teams showcasing new lineups, through both transfer activity and resting of stars, we should get a game that’s disjointed defensively in parts, and one which should allow premier attacking players opportunities.
PSG vs Aston Villa odds
 PSG |
 Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| 56% | Moneyline | 20% |
| 26% | Draw | 26% |
| Over 2.5 (51%) | Total | Under 2.5 (51%) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
PSG vs Aston Villa opening odds
- Moneyline: PSG 56% | Aston Villa 20%
- Draw: 26%
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
How to watch PSG vs Aston Villa
| Location | Red Bull Arena, Salzburg, Austria |
| Date | Wednesday, August 12, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | Sunny, temperatures in the low 80s |
PSG vs Aston Villa key injuries
PSG: None.
Aston Villa: Amadou Onana CM (Out), Johan Manzambi CM (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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