Newcastle vs Brighton Picks and Predictions: Seagulls Should Keep Scoring

Newcastle are on the brink of returning to the Champions League for the first time since 2003, but there’s still work to do, especially with a Thursday visit from a Brighton team chasing their own European adventure.

Nerves will be jangling at St. James’ Park, with Newcastle taking just one point from their last two games and opening the door for fifth-place Liverpool in the race for the Top 4. The Magpies had to settle for a 2-2 draw against Leeds on Saturday despite two penalties from Callum Wilson.

Brighton’s 3-0 away win vs Arsenal on Sunday was the biggest statement of the Roberto De Zerbi era, as goals from Julio Enciso, Deniz Undav and Pervis Estupinan sunk the Gunners. The Seagulls will aim to strengthen their grip on sixth place here and inch closer to a Europa League spot.

For a closer look at this high-stakes May 18 showdown, check out our free Newcastle vs Brighton picks and predictions.

Newcastle vs Brighton best odds

Newcastle vs Brighton picks and predictions

Europa League qualification would be a well-deserved reward for Brighton’s enterprising campaign (it’s easy to forget they lost Graham Potter to Chelsea in September), and they’re within touching distance now. With a congested fixture list ahead over the final 10 days of the season, I expect De Zerbi’s men to try to clinch the points they need sooner rather than later.

Confidence should be sky-high in the visitors’ dressing room after Sunday’s upset at the Emirates, and I see the Seagulls playing their part in an open, end-to-end contest on Thursday against a free-scoring Newcastle side. Both teams have shown a cutting edge in the final third, and neither is likely to sit back and concede possession.

But I’m particularly focused on the Brighton props here. After their shock 5-1 loss to Everton, they rebounded in style against Arsenal, dominating the ball (59% possession) and leaving the Gunners’ title bid in ruins. 

More than that, Brighton continued their run of consistent scoring on the road, even without livewire Solly March. They’ve now netted two or more goals in four of their last six away games, with Julio Enciso and Deniz Undav thriving in expanded roles.

Now they’re facing a Newcastle defense that’s looked fragile despite inching towards a Top 4 finish. With no clean sheets in their last eight outings, I see the hosts being stretched again here, and I like these odds for Brighton to have another prolific away day.

My best bet: Brighton Over 1.5 Goals (+150 at bet365)

Newcastle vs Brighton side analysis

Despite a rocky start to May, Newcastle are favorites to take all three points here, and you can find plus odds for their moneyline. Eddie Howe’s men have won 10 of their 17 Premier League home games this season, and they need a result on Thursday to hold off Liverpool’s late-season surge.

But count out Brighton at your own risk. Buoyed by their weekend victory at Emirates Stadium (their third win in their last four contests), I expect the visitors to cause problems, with Alexis MacAllister pulling the strings in midfield. Only Manchester City, Arsenal and Newcastle have collected more points on the road this season than Brighton.

It’s worth remembering too that Newcastle face the greater pressure here. They’re locked with Manchester United at 66 points, one point ahead of Liverpool, who’ve played one game more. Brighton have more wiggle room down the stretch and could really silence the St. James’ Park crowd with an early goal.

Newcastle vs Brighton Over/Under analysis

As I’ve outlined above, Brighton pose the kind of threat that should worry a Newcastle side who haven’t kept a clean sheet since April 2. Kaoru Mitoma’s pace and trickery will be a big test for Kieran Trippier, with so many of the Seagulls’ best moves coming from the Mitoma-Estupinan pairing on the left wing.

But things look rosier for Newcastle at the other end of the pitch, with Howe finally opting for both Wilson and Alexander Isak in attack. The Magpies had 18 shots in the weekend draw at Leeds, and they finished April with 13 goals in three games, including a 6-1 demolition of Tottenham.

A goalless draw in their prior meeting back in August didn’t hint at the heights these teams would reach this season, and it would be a big surprise to see that type of stalemate on Thursday. The hefty price for BTTS and Over 2.5 goals is another indication that a goalfest could be on the cards.

Newcastle vs Brighton game info

Newcastle vs Brighton key injuries

Newcastle: Sean Longstaff M (Out), Matt Ritchie M (Out), Emil Krafth D (Out), Jamaal Lascelles D (Out)
Brighton: Julio Enciso M (Probable), Joel Veltman D (Questionable), Tariq Lamptey D (Out), Jeremy Sarmiento M (Out), Adam Webster D (Out), Solly March M (Out), Adam Lallana M (Out)

Newcastle vs Brighton recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Newcastle	W-W-W-L-D
Brighton	L-W-W-L-W

Newcastle vs Brighton weather

The forecast calls for a cloudy Thursday in Newcastle but conditions should remain dry, with temperatures in the high 50s.

Pages related to this topic