MLS Predictions: Moneyline Picks for Every Matchday 12 Game

We’re entering the final stretch of the MLS campaign before the World Cup break, and Week 12 provides us with a blockbuster on Saturday night when the San Jose Earthquakes host the Vancouver Whitecaps. 

We didn’t have the greatest showing last week, but we nailed a tremendous upset as DC United pulled off the +360 win on the road at New York City FC.

Our MLS moneyline picks and free betting picks for Week 12 go over all the action, including a rivalry match between the New England Revolution and Philadelphia Union.

MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 12

Game	Pick
Toronto FC vs  Inter Miami	Draw +280
Chicago Fire vs  New York Red Bulls	-172
CF Montreal vs  Orlando City SC	Draw +290
New England Revolution vs  Philadelphia Union	+165
Charlotte FC vs  FC Cincinnati	+200
Atlanta United FC vs  LA Galaxy	Draw +250
FC Dallas vs  Real Salt Lake	+120
Nashville SC vs  D.C. United	Draw +310
Colorado Rapids vs  St. Louis City SC	+100
Seattle Sounders vs  San Diego	-133
San Jose Earthquakes vs  Vancouver Whitecaps	Draw +260
Portland Timbers vs  Sporting KC	-189
New York City FC vs  Columbus Crew	+165
Minnesota United FC vs  Austin FC	-143
Los Angeles FC vs Houston Dynamo	Draw +300

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

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Toronto FC vs  Inter Miami

Pick: Draw (+280)

There’s something very wrong with this Inter Miami team, and its capitulation from 3-0 up against Orlando City last week only further cemented that fact. Miami has yet to figure out how to replace Sergio Busquets in midfield, and its back line remains atrocious. Toronto isn’t figuring out how to win games, but it does know how to capture a point — and I’ll back TFC to do so again here.

Chicago Fire vs  New York Red Bulls

Pick: Chicago Fire (-172)

The Red Bulls have allowed the third-most set-piece goals in the league, and only Orlando has conceded more goals overall so far. The Fire have allowed just 11 goals through 10 matches, with an opponent conversion rate of 9.09% that ranks seventh-best in MLS. This juice is justified.

CF Montreal vs  Orlando City SC

Pick: Draw (+290)

Orlando was never supposed to be as bad as it looked to start the season, and Martin Ojeda reminded everyone last week that he’s a lethal scorer. The Lions are flying high after their comeback win over Miami, and these are the two worst defenses in the league in terms of allowing more goals than expected. This should be an entertaining stalemate.

New England Revolution vs  Philadelphia Union

Pick: New England Revolution (+165)

The Revs have quietly moved into second place in the Eastern Conference behind Nashville, scoring nearly six more goals than expected. They’ve taken 16 of a possible 18 points from their last six league matches, while the Union have won once all season and have failed to score in three of their last four. I like New England to sneak out a 1-0 win.

Charlotte FC vs  FC Cincinnati

Pick: FC Cincinnati (+200)

After a solid start, Charlotte’s offense has sputtered. It has lost four straight in all competitions, failed to score in its last two, and dropped four of five in MLS play. Cincinnati is unbeaten in five and has scored 11 goals over its last four matches. Charlotte should look better back at home, but Cincinnati is the better team right now, and I love the price.

Atlanta United FC vs  LA Galaxy

Pick: Draw (+250)

Atlanta has rolled off three straight wins and looks to have finally found its best lineup. The Galaxy are the better team, but they’ve also picked up just one victory in their last 23 regular-season MLS road matches. I’ll back the Five Stripes to do enough to get a point.

FC Dallas vs  Real Salt Lake

Pick: FC Dallas (+120)

Petar Musa has scored in six of his last seven starts for Dallas, and this is a different team with him on the pitch. He’s a key reason Dallas has scored four more goals than expected, and he should cause problems for a young RSL side that hasn’t been great on the road and is underperforming in front of goal.

Nashville SC vs  D.C. United

Pick: Draw (+310)

This may be the hardest match of the weekend to handicap. Nashville returns home from a trip to Tigres exhausted and banged up, with Sam Surridge and Patrick Yazbek expected to miss out. D.C. United is unbeaten in four league matches and presents value to grab a draw here in what could be a scoreless affair.

Colorado Rapids vs  St. Louis City SC

Pick: Colorado Rapids (+100)

Colorado will be happy to return home for the first time in a month after claiming just four points from seven road outings. There’s no better way to get back into the win column than hosting a St. Louis City side that has scored just three goals in six away matches and is converting on just 6.38% of its shots this season.

Seattle Sounders vs  San Diego FC

Pick: Seattle Sounders (-133)

San Diego is in absolute freefall, with just three points from its last eight MLS matches after a strong start to the campaign. Seattle has won all three of its home matches while outscoring opponents 8-2, and it’s allowing the lowest xG per shot of any team in the league. This should be an easy win.

San Jose Earthquakes vs  Vancouver Whitecaps

Pick: Draw (+260)

These may be the two best teams in MLS. Both rank Top 6 in opponent conversion rate and xG allowed per shot, and they’re tied atop the league with 26 goals scored. Both teams defend with all 11 players, are evenly matched, and will be without a key player — which makes the draw a strong value play.

Portland Timbers vs  Sporting KC

Pick: Portland Timbers (-189)

If Portland were playing almost anybody else, there’s no way I’d back it at this kind of price. But this Sporting KC side is historically bad, with just 7.01 xG through 10 matches. Its 69 total shots make it the only team with fewer than 100 this season. The Timbers should get the victory in just their fifth home match of the year.

New York City FC vs  Columbus Crew

Pick: Columbus Crew (+165)

NYCFC has two wins in its last nine matches in all competitions — and both came in the U.S. Open Cup. Columbus allows the sixth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes, and NYCFC has been held scoreless in its last two matches. Columbus is one of my favorite road underdogs of the week.

Minnesota United FC vs  Austin FC

Pick: Minnesota United (-143)

Minnesota is in terrific form and now hosts an Austin side that has taken just two points from five road matches. Even more concerning, Austin has allowed 15 goals across those five road trips. The Loons have allowed one goal in four home fixtures. Take Minnesota to win its sixth match in seven league outings.

Los Angeles FC vs Houston Dynamo

Pick: Draw (+300)

Earlier this season, Houston couldn’t stop a sneeze. Now it has kept a clean sheet in three of its last four league matches. LAFC got dog-walked by Toluca in extreme altitude on Wednesday night and will be without Denis Bouanga due to suspension. This is a great spot for Houston to make a statement, and I think LAFC is overpriced.

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