MLS Predictions: Moneyline Picks for Every Matchday 11 Game

As the calendar flips to May, teams in Major League Soccer are having to navigate some fairly congested schedules ahead of this summer’s World Cup.

My MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 11 take those heavy legs and long flights into account, as we see numerous fixtures where at least one side played in US Open Cup or CONCACAF Champions Cup action in the midweek.

Find out why I’m backing D.C. United to pull off a big upset as part of my free betting picks for Matchday 11.

MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 11

Game	Pick
Toronto FC vs  San Jose Earthquakes	+105
Sporting KC vs  Seattle Sounders	-139
Real Salt Lake vs  Portland Timbers	-200
Inter Miami vs  Orlando City SC	-323
Philadelphia Union vs  Nashville SC	+175
New York Red Bulls vs  FC Dallas	Draw +270
New England Revolution vs  Charlotte FC	+120
Columbus Crew vs  Minnesota United FC	-137
Atlanta United FC vs  CF Montreal	-102
Houston Dynamo FC vs  Colorado Rapids	Draw +275
Chicago Fire vs  FC Cincinnati	Draw +310
San Diego vs  Los Angeles FC	+145
LA Galaxy vs Vancouver Whitecaps	+105
New York City FC vs  D.C. United	+360
Austin FC vs  St. Louis City SC	Draw +260

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

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Toronto FC vs  San Jose Earthquakes

Pick: San Jose (+105)

I’m getting possibly the best team in MLS at plus-odds? On the road against a Toronto team that just lost to Atlanta United? I’ll take that. The early kickoff won’t bother them, even after playing Tuesday night in the US Open Cup.

Sporting KC vs  Seattle Sounders

Pick: Seattle (-139)

I’m surprised this line isn’t far more juiced than it is. The Sounders got a full week of rest and face a Sporting side that has already conceded 25 goals while scoring just seven. The Sounders will likely win in a shutout.

Real Salt Lake vs  Portland Timbers

Pick: Real Salt Lake (-200)

RSL has lost two straight to Inter Miami and the Galaxy, but they’re the better side with better players. Portland’s win last week ended a run of 12 consecutive on the road without a victory, but it came against a struggling San Diego side. I don’t see a repeat here.

Inter Miami vs  Orlando City SC

Pick: Inter Miami (-323)

I am not including this in my record, nor would I recommend playing this bet at this price. However, Inter Miami is getting its first win at its new place this weekend. Orlando’s coming off a trip to DC United and a grueling 4-3 US Open Cup win on Wednesday night in New England, where they played most of their starters.

Philadelphia Union vs  Nashville SC

Pick: Nashville (+175)

This is a very tricky spot for Nashville, given the 1-0 loss to Tigres at home on Tuesday night. I expect heavy rotation, plus Sam Surridge is still injured. That said, I think they’ve still got enough quality to get a victory over the Union, who got blanked last weekend by the Crew.

New York Red Bulls vs  FC Dallas

Pick: Draw (+270)

The Red Bulls fell to NYCFC 3-1 in Open Cup action, and have now conceded 13 goals in their last four matches in all comps. Dallas hasn’t been great, but they were competitive in away defeats to Seattle and Minnesota. They also come in off a week’s rest, which I think will allow them to make a late push to get a share of the spoils.

New England Revolution vs  Charlotte FC

Pick: New England (+120)

Charlotte has gone into free-fall. Their inexplicable 4-1 defeat last week at Orlando has been followed by a 4-2 loss at Nashville, and a surprise 2-0 defeat to Atlanta in the US Open Cup. The Revs are coming off that Open Cup loss to Orlando, but have taken 13 of 15 points in their league five MLS matches with four straight wins at home.

Columbus Crew vs  Minnesota United FC

Pick: Columbus (-137)

I’m not sure the Crew should be favored by this much, but I do like them to win. Both teams played mid-week in US Open Cup action, but Minnesota went to San Jose and now travels back to the Eastern time zone. The Crew got to host a third-tier side, and has lost only two of their last 12 at home in all competitions.

Atlanta United FC vs  CF Montreal

Pick: Atlanta (-102)

If his name weren’t Tata Martino, he might not have gotten the time he has at Atlanta this season. But two wins this week, away at Toronto and at Charlotte in the Open Cup, show that the patience is being rewarded. They allowed just four shots on target in those two matches, and Montreal’s yet to show me they can do anything to a team outside of New York.

Houston Dynamo FC vs  Colorado Rapids

Pick: Draw (+275)

This match honestly could be a rough watch. Both teams went a full 120 minutes on Wednesday night in US Open Cup action. Houston’s manager said his team is running on fumes, and the Rapids will have traveled to LA, to Vancouver, back home, and to Houston in a 10-day span before this match kicks off. A draw offers real value at this price.

Chicago Fire vs  FC Cincinnati

Pick: Draw (+310)

These teams played out a 3-3 draw in Cincinnati just two weeks ago, but Cincy had a 4.12-1.75 xG advantage. The Fire were thoroughly outplayed in the Open Cup as St Louis defeated them 3-1, and I think a rested Cincy team can get another point on the road here.

San Diego vs  Los Angeles FC

Pick: San Diego (+145)

LAFC’s manager made it very clear that he’s prioritizing the CONCACAF Champions Cup, ahead of a trip to Toluca next week, holding a 2-1 advantage. That means we’re going to see massive rotation here. It’s a gift for San Diego, who desperately need to end a streak of seven without a win with five consecutive defeats.

LA Galaxy vs  Vancouver Whitecaps

Pick: Vancouver (+105)

Vancouver have played eight of their nine MLS matches thus far at home, because they will be kicked out of their stadium until August due to the upcoming World Cup. Now they also have to deal with the very loud rumors of a potential move to Las Vegas. Thankfully, they’re playing a Galaxy side that has conceded five more goals than expected, and they’ll find a way to win.

New York City FC vs  D.C. United

Pick: DC United (+360)

This is a value play, as DC United should not have implied odds of just 21.74% to win. They’re unbeaten in three matches, have had a week off to rest, and have won two of their last four visits to NYCFC. Meanwhile, the hosts have dropped 16 of 18 points in their last six matches in MLS, played in the Open Cup midweek, and failed to create a single big chance against Montreal last weekend.

Austin FC vs  St. Louis City SC

Pick: Draw (+250)

St. Louis were the better team in Open Cup play against the Fire, picking up the road win. Now they visit an Austin team that, while rested, has looked very poor over the past month and has just two victories on the season. St. Louis looked better for large spells against San Jose last week, and their form has me backing them to get a result.

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