Liverpool vs Southampton Predictions and Picks: Reds Pummel the Saints

Liverpool are hot off a Carabao Cup title win and will now turn their attention to Southamption in FA Cup action. Despite injuries, the Reds are far superior in this matchup, and our betting picks expect them to blow out the visitors.

Feb 26, 2024 • 09:42 ET • 4 min read
Virgil Van Dijk Liverpool England
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We have an exciting FA Cup clash between Liverpool vs Southampton on February 28. Liverpool come into this fresh from winning the Carabao Cup at Wembley but have been hit with a lot of injuries to their star players, while Southampton continue to work towards getting promoted from the Championship back to the top flight.

Will Liverpool be able to continue their brilliant week in the domestic cups or will their injuries come back to haunt them? Don’t miss my Liverpool vs Southampton betting picks to find out.

Liverpool vs Southampton best odds

Liverpool Liverpool Southampton
-176 Moneyline +440
+359 Draw +359
Over 2.5 (-209) Total Under 2.5 (+175)

Odds courtesy of TonyBet on February 26, 2024.

Liverpool vs Southampton picks and predictions

Liverpool come into Wednesday’s game on the back of a Carabao Cup final win in which they were, for the most part, outplayed by Chelsea. However, they were missing several key players, and with a full-strength team, it perhaps would have been a far more convincing victory.

Some of those missing players, such as Darwin Nunez and Mohamed Salah could feature Wednesday, but Jurgen Klopp may keep them fresh for the next set of Premier League games. 

The risk of rotation is one that you always need to consider in the FA Cup and it also applies for Southampton. As much as the South Coast club would love a deep FA Cup run, their priority this season has been, and will continue to be, a promotion back to the Premier League. 

They’ve lost three of their past four in the Championship and are now fourth in the table, well ahead of fifth-placed West Brom but chasing Ipswich, Leeds and Leicester. They’ll know coming into this they are unlikely to beat Liverpool and perhaps would be better served by ensuring they’re ready to have a strong push at climbing that table.

I’m fully confident in a Liverpool victory, even if we do see Klopp rotate his team, however, odds of -176 are prohibitive and I’d argue you’re getting better value by taking Liverpool to be winning at halftime and fulltime.

If we look at their last fixture in the FA Cup, they were winning 2-1 at half before going on to win 5-2. We’ve also seen in the Premier League they’ve scored 14 first half goals in 13 games at Anfield. If they can keep their average of one first half goal per game going, it’s very likely they have a lead after he first 45. 

Liverpool have players superior to Southampton is every single position and the injuries don’t change that, neither does any likely rotation. The Reds will start hard and fast and go on to win this easily.

My best bet: Liverpool halftime/fulltime (+110 at TonyBet)

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Liverpool vs Southampton same-game parlay


Liverpool to win by 2+ 

Luiz Diaz to score

In addition to my best bet, I'm also taking Liverpool to win by two or more goals. They might have won their last game by just one goal, but of their previous season games, they’ve won five by margins of two goals or more.

When this team clicks they really put other teams away, as we saw in the last round of this competition when they put five past Norwich. It’s also worth noting that while Southampton are fourth in the Championship they’ve allowed 42 goals, that’s more than the likes of Leicester and Leeds who sit just points above them and haven’t hit 30 yet.

The final leg of the bet is for Liverpool’s Luiz Diaz to score. The Colombian winger has been very good of late and had five shots against Chelsea in the Carabao Cup final — three more than anyone else on his team. He frequently gets into dangerous positions and although he isn’t prolific, he'll start to score more goals if he continues to get lots of opportunities in those areas. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Liverpool vs Southampton side and Over/Under analysis

With odds of -176 you’re not getting huge returns on the Liverpool win although those odds imply a 63.8% chance and I’d put that close to 70-75%. This is a team who are serial winners and playing at home against Championship opposition. If you are keen on a draw you can get +359 or a bigger +440 on Southampton winning. It’s hard to see either of those happening and perhaps -176 is a price worth taking.

The sportsbooks are expecting a high number of goals with Over 2.5 at -209 and the Under at +175. It’s easy to see why when it’s a Premier League team against a Championship side, even if they’re in the Top 4 of that division.

Liverpool have had Over 2.5 goals in 69.2% of their league games this season, a number that rises of 76.9% when they play at Anfield. Southampton have had 61.8% of their games hitting the Over and worryingly for them they’ve let the opposition score in 12 of 17 games on the road.

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Liverpool vs Southampton game info

Location: Anfield, Liverpool, England
Date: Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: USA Network
Weather: Temp: 47F, POP: 0%, Wind: 11 mph

Liverpool vs Southampton key injuries

Liverpool: Joel Matip CB (Out), Stefan Bajcetic CM (Out), Thiago CM (Out), Kostas Tsimikas LB (Out), Mohamed Salah RW (Out), Waturu Endo CM (Out), Ryan Gravenberch CM (Out).
Southampton: Juan Larios DEF (Out), Ross Stewart FWR (Out), James Bree FB (Out), Flynn Downes CM (Out).

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