After yet more twists on the long road to co-hosting the next World Cup, Canada start life under interim head coach Mauro Biello in Friday’s friendly against Japan.
With John Herdman moving on to MLS to coach Toronto FC — and off-field tensions still bubbling — the Canadians are in limbo entering their first game since a Gold Cup quarter-final exit in July at the hands of the USMNT.
While the Canada camp has lost some of its mojo from the electrifying 2022 World Cup qualifying run, it’s an entirely different story for this talented Japan squad. Sparked by eye-catching results in Qatar, The Samurai Blue are soaring after vibrant September performances.
Read on for our free Japan vs Canada picks and predictions ahead of this October 13 contest.
Japan vs Canada best odds
 Japan |
 Canada |
|
|---|---|---|
| -179 | Moneyline | +440 |
| +310 | Draw | +310 |
| Over 2.5 (-128) | Total | Under 2.5 (-103) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on October 11, 2023.
Japan vs Canada picks and predictions
Wins over Germany and Spain at last year’s World Cup propelled Japan into a brighter international spotlight, and they haven’t looked back since. Despite losing to Croatia on penalties in the Round of 16, there was a sense that their Qatar magic was just the first act.
That’s looked especially true in Japan’s past four games, starting with a 6-0 win against El Salvador and a 4-1 victory over Peru. Not content with those statements, The Samurai Blue rocked up in Wolfsburg in September and beat Germany 4-1 — a second win over the Germans in less than a year. Three days later, they put four past Turkey.
It doesn’t take a genius to see that Japan, currently ranked 19th in the world, are on the rise — and I’m riding with the hosts in this friendly. The moneyline value just isn’t there with such short odds, so I’m taking the total goals Over and expecting Kyogo Furuhashi, Takuma Asano, Kaoru Mitoma, and the crew to produce more fireworks.
Of course, it helps that Canada bring attacking threats of their own, with Cyle Larin and Jonathan David feeding off Alphonso Davies. The Canadians have scored two or more goals in three of their past four outings.
Though overall intensity and a stream of second-half substitutes are wild cards in a friendly, I like these odds for Friday’s clash to feel less like a dull exhibition game and closer to the teams’ matchup last November — a 2-1 win for Canada in Dubai.
My best bet: Over 2.5 goals (-128 at TonyBet)
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Japan vs Canada same-game parlay
Over 2.5 goals
Japan moneyline
Kyogo Furuhashi anytime goal
While the standalone value for the Japan moneyline is questionable, I don’t mind bumping up an SGP with those odds. Canada feel vulnerable with an interim boss and underwhelming results this summer — and this Japanese attack has been ruthless in their last four internationals.
There are plenty of options for an anytime scorer to add to the parlay, but I see Kyogo Furuhashi making the biggest impact. He was kept off the scoresheet in Japan’s 4-1 win over Turkey in September, but he’s netted four goals in eight games for Celtic so far this season.
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Japan vs Canada side and Over/Under analysis
Boosted by a string of emphatic wins and playing on home soil, Japan are clear favorites here. They’ve won four in a row since a friendly loss to Colombia in late March, while the Canadians have just one victory from their past five contests.
These two teams have gone in somewhat opposite directions since Lucas Cavallini’s stoppage-time penalty gave Canada the bragging rights in a pre-World Cup friendly last year. Biello can call on a largely fit squad for his first game in charge, but the visitors still have major questions to answer ahead of CONCACAF Nations League action in November. Friday’s game could provide some clues on what’s next for Les Rouges.
Japan’s run of 18 goals in their past four games tells its own story – and that was a big factor in taking the Over 2.5 goals prop as my best bet above. The hosts have an array of skillful playmakers and this Canadian defense could be the latest victim if they start slowly.
It’s also worth remembering that amid Japan’s impressive run, they’ve only kept one clean sheet in their past 11 games. A proven Canadian strikeforce, with Davies scheming from midfield, is likely to create chances, and the Bayern Munich man will be under the microscope in a week where he was linked with Real Madrid and Manchester City.
Japan vs Canada game info
| Location: | Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata, Japan |
| Date: | Friday, October 13, 2023 |
| Time: | 6:35 a.m. ET |
| TV: | fuboTV |
| Weather: | Low 60s, low precipitation, no clouds |
Japan vs Canada key injuries
Japan: None.
Canada: Stephen Eustaquio M (Out).
