The Premier League slate for Matchday 7 will close out Monday afternoon with a London Derby, as Fulham welcomes Chelsea to Craven Cottage.
With an even split of wins, draws, and defeats over the first six matches, Fulham have quickly moved right back toward the middle of the table after finishing there last season. They were able to secure midfielder Joao Palhinha to a long-term deal and have secured clean sheets in both matches since.
A third such result wouldn’t be out of the question on Monday. There’s no Premier League team with a worse goals below expected mark than Chelsea. They sit second-worst in the league with only five goals scored, despite an xG metric of 11.5 through their first six fixtures.
With striker Nicolas Jackson suspended for yellow card accumulation, the task of scoring could be made even more challenging this week.
Our Premier League betting picks for Fulham vs. Chelsea explain why this plays into your hands as you look for the best bet for the match.
Fulham vs Chelsea best odds
Fulham vs Chelsea picks and predictions
Chelsea must be cursed. It’s the only explanation I can come up with. The manager has been changed. The players have been changed — heck, nearly the entire roster is different than it was this time last year.
Yet the struggles to score a goal remain the same. Their last three Premier League matches have seen them register 5.5 expected goals — and no actual goals scored.
And if you watch them play, there’s little more they can do to create chances. Coming into the weekend, they were ranked near the top of the league in expected goals. Only two teams had more progressive carries and they rank Top 6 in progressive passes, and the average distance from goal on their shots is fifth-best in the Premier League.
Injuries haven’t helped the situation, either. Reece James missing is a big blow, considering how much better they are at creating chances when he’s out there. Now manager Mauricio Pochettino must navigate another match with a rotating cast of characters, as Jackson’s suspension is compounded by the injury to left back Ben Chilwell who came off in their midweek EFL Cup fixture.
Chelsea managed to find a goal in that match, a 1-0 win over a Brighton side that shipped six goals on Saturday. Doing so against Fulham won’t be as easy a task.
The home side has played well defensively in the past few matches, with Palhinha solidifying the center of the park. They defeated Luton 1-0 before a scoreless draw away at Crystal Palace put them on eight points from six matches.
Midweek saw them advance in the EFL Cup with a 2-1 win over Norwich, just the second time in eight matches across all competitions in which they found the back of the net multiple times in one outing.
But unlike Chelsea, they aren’t missing their chances — they simply aren’t creating many. In fact, they sit dead last in the Premier League in shots attempted per 90 minutes played.
Fulham have an xG thus far of just 5.4 through six Premier League matches, and their five goals show they’re shooting par currently. Raul Jimenez has struggled after his move from Wolves, and he’s found it difficult to fill the shoes of the departed Aleksandar Mitrovic.
Between Chelsea’s shooting boots seemingly vanishing into the Thames and Fulham trying to find a consistent goalscorer, I was surprised to see the Under 2.5 goals isn’t priced higher, but you can get it at -119 over at TonyBet, which is what we’re going with.
I’m projecting a low-scoring draw in this fixture, especially with Pochettino likely having to adapt his personnel and formation to accommodate the growing injury list.
My best bet: Under 2.5 (-119 at TonyBet)
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Fulham vs Chelsea same-game parlay
For our same-game parlay, we head over to FanDuel where the +351 on offer is the best price on the market. We’re adding two additional props to our best bet for an SGP with a high chance of hitting.
Each of Chelsea’s last seven matches across all competitions has seen them attempt at least five corners. They've attempted the second-most corner kicks in the league and Fulham’s Premier League opponents are averaging more than five per contest. We’ll take five for the floor in this one.
With Jackson out of the match and the status of Armando Broja still up in the air, Raheem Sterling is expected to lead the line on Monday. He’s attempted multiple shots in four of his last five starts, and with his centralized position, I expect him to attempt at least two.
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Fulham vs Chelsea side and Over/Under analysis
Chelsea are favored on the 3-way line despite being the away side and having issues with finding the back of the net. They’re priced between +100 and +105 depending on the book, with Fulham the longshot with as high as +285 on offer. The draw is priced up to +250.
The status of Broja is something to monitor when team sheets come out on Monday. If he starts coming off his long recovery from a knee injury, I like Chelsea’s chances to win and would grab the line before it shifts further to minus odds, but if he’s out, I’d lean toward the draw for strong value.
As for the total, we’ve given out the Under as our best bet. It’s the favored option on the market, priced as high as -125 depending on the book. The Over is available at -105 for those looking to play the other side of the line.
We’ve discussed why we’re on the Under here. Were it to hit, it would mark the fourth time in five matches since Fulham’s return to the Premier League that these two teams ended their meeting with two or fewer goals scored.
Fulham vs Chelsea game info
|Location:||Craven Cottage, London, England|
|Date:||Monday, October 2, 2023|
|Time:||3:00 p.m. ET|
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Fulham vs Chelsea key injuries
Fulham: Adama Traore F (Questionable), Kenny Tete D (Doubtful), Sasa Lukic M (Doubtful).
Chelsea: Nicolas Jackson F (Out), Christopher Nkunku (Out), Reece James D (Out).
Fulham vs Chelsea recent league form
|Teams||Recent Premier League Form|