One of the most surprising results of the Premier League season occurred in late October at the Etihad, when Crystal Palace visited Manchester and left with a 2-0 win against City.
The way in which Palace visited City and played competitively against them previously will no doubt give Palace a lift ahead of the reverse fixture — can Monday's hosts do the improbable and get another result off the league leaders?
Here are our free EPL betting picks for Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City, with kickoff set for March 14.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Crystal Palace vs Manchester City betting tips
Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Crystal Palace vs Manchester City game info
• Location: Selhurst Park, London, England
• Date: Monday, March 14, 2022
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: USA Network, DAZN
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City betting preview
Weather
Good conditions are expected for City's clash with Palace in London. There's no rain in the forecast Monday and very little wind, with temperatures at kickoff expected to be around 45 degrees Fahrenheit.
Injuries
Crystal Palace: James McArthur CM (Questionable).
Manchester City: Joao Cancelo LB (Questionable), Ruben Dias CB (Out).
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Palace handed City just their second loss of the season in that first fixture, seemingly altering the landscape of the title race. Except, instead, it sparked City into a furiously incredible run. They won their next 12 league games and in total, since that first meeting, have taken 48 points from a possible 54 and outscored opponents 48-12.
City are, rightfully, the Premier League and Champions League betting favorite as they've sustained an attack producing at an elite rate, while their defensive record has rapidly become the best in the league. Only Liverpool have scored more than City's 68 and created more expected goals than their 64.7, though City edge the Reds in shot-creating actions per 90. Defensively, nobody betters City's marks of 18 goals conceded or 20.4 xGA in 28 matches.
Not for nothing, Palace's massive win over City wasn't necessarily a blip in their season. In Premier League legend Patrick Viera's first season as manager, they've strung together impressive results, are well on their way to progressing as a team since moving on from Roy Hodgson, and have been a tough opponent as they're tied for the fifth-fewest losses (nine) in the league.
Palace's underlying numbers speak to their standing, which is firmly as a competent midtable side. They are 10th in goal difference (+1) and have the best xG difference per 90 outside the European places, as the only other side with a positive mark (+0.07).
There's plenty of reason for optimism at Crystal Palace but that is irrelevant in this specific fixture. They're a club on the upswing and should fight for a top-half finish throughout the rest of the season but on Monday, they'll host arguably the world's best team.
Prediction: Manchester City (-341)
Over/Under analysis
Even with the best defensive record in the Premier League, City games have been nearly automatic Overs for us this season. That's because, with averages of 2.42 goals and 2.31 xG per game, they're a threat to hit the Over on their own in any given game. That's the case again here and really, we'd back City to score three on their own.
However, not for nothing, Palace have the type of attackers who can not only create problems in possession but punish the high defensive line City play with. Almost any of their attackers, whether it's Wilfried Zaha, Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze, or Odsonne Edouard, can get behind that defensive line and find themselves through on goal — and all have the quality to convert from that position.
That was the case in the first meeting. Palace's first goal came after they took possession in the midfield before Zaha converted after a direct, forward run. The second came after Eze broke forward on the counter, beat City's backline with pace, and eventually cut it back amid a numerical advantage.
Both teams could score in this one and we expect City to win by multiple goals — give us the Over.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-145)
Best bet
Palace's competency gives us the chance to get good value in a multiple-goal City win and we'll do just that.
City are simply so dominant that this sort of price on a multi-goal win should nearly be an auto-bet regardless of opponent (meetings with Liverpool notwithstanding) but the underlying numbers here back up the notion.
On a per-game average, City's goal difference is +1.78, while their xGD is +1.58, compared to Palace's marks of +0.03 and +0.07. After last week's easy 4-1 win over Man United in the derby, 13 of City's 22 league wins this year have come by multiple goals while four of Palace's nine losses have been by two goals or more.
In a genuine title race, City remain behind Liverpool in both goals scored and goal differential. They're well-rested, after a formality of a Champions League game midweek, and have every incentive to score as many goals as possible on Monday. As a result, they'll earn another comfortable win.
Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (+100)
