Chelsea vs Aston Villa Picks and Predictions: Elementary, Watkins

After an international break, the Premier League resumes on Saturday. The two teams directly in the middle of the table will face off in what could be a pivotal matchup for European football as Chelsea hosts Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge.

Tied on 38 points, both clubs sit just four spots behind Liverpool for the final automatic spot for Europe next season. While that could be a disappointment for the Blues, for whom it’s usually Champions League or bust, the Villans could see this as a big opportunity. 

For the hosts, manager Graham Potter will be forced to navigate the fixture with an eye on Liverpool at the midweek with injury concerns littering his squad. 

Can Potter and Chelsea find the proper recipe for success, or will Aston Villa leave London with a result? We dive into those storylines in our Chelsea vs Aston Villa betting picks and predictions for Saturday, April 1. 

Chelsea vs Aston Villa best odds

Chelsea vs Aston Villa picks and predictions

When looking at the lines for this match, I began my research and compiled a list of a few lines that could be of interest to look for value. Those all went out the window when I saw that Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins was getting better than +300 to score anytime against Chelsea. I thought I must be looking at the “first to score” market, but when I realized Aston Villa’s in-form striker was actually getting that good of a price, I threw most of my research away and jumped on the line.

Why is this my Best Bet for Saturday’s match? Well, let’s start with the injury concerns for Chelsea. Potter will be forced to make changes at the back, with Trevoh Chalobah expected to start in place of the injured Thiago Silva, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek possibly coming in for Reece James. 

While it’s likely that James could be ready to go on Saturday, I would expect the manager to rest his thigh a few more days with the Liverpool match on the horizon. But Chalobah has been suspect at times this season and has been responsible more than once for losing his man in the box. 

That’s important for Watkins, who hasn’t managed to score in his last five outings against the Blues. That was before, however. Before Unai Emery took over and put Watkins in a better setup. Before the striker tied a club record with goals in four consecutive Premier League away matches, a record he hopes to hold on his own with a goal on Saturday. Before he scored a goal in six of Villa’s last eight matches. 

Watkins is in stellar form at the moment, and since Emery has taken over, the Villans have found the back of the net in all 16 matches. Watkins got an assist in his first match under Emery, and in his 13 starts under the new manager the striker has managed eight goals and three assists. His finishing is also improving, as he’s getting closer to his xG mark after poor finishing to start the campaign.

In his five appearances against Chelsea, Watkins has never scored. That’s likely why his price is where it is. But that’s far too high for a talented striker who is in form and going up against a back line with injury concerns and a keeper in Kepa who currently isn’t performing very well. Chelsea rank in the bottom half of the league in shots on target allowed per match, and Villa rank in the top half of efforts on target per 90. 

Chelsea have conceded just 28 goals this campaign, well below the 34.4 expected to be scored against them. This indicates a lower-than-usual level of finishing. With how well Watkins is scoring of late, I expect him to do what Patson Daka did for Leicester a few weeks ago and find the back of the net. Daka managed just one shot in the entire match, but he beat Chelsea with it — and that may be all Watkins needs to do the same. 

My best bet: Ollie Watkins anytime goal (+350 at bet365)

Chelsea vs Aston Villa side analysis

While they’ll be missing multiple players, Chelsea are getting a few important pieces back. Raheem Sterling is set to return to the squad, and N’Golo Kante could feature from the bench as well. Kai Havertz will be a late fitness test up top, as he left the Germany squad last weekend with what many believe was the flu.

Chelsea have suffered defeat to Villa just once in the last 17 meetings at Stamford Bridge, and are unbeaten in their last three in the Premier League prior to the international break. They’re also unbeaten in their last four in all competitions.

As for the Villans, Emery will be without Matty Cash, who picked up an injury on international duty and could miss three weeks. Leander Dendoncker and Philippe Coutinho are likely out as well. They may see the return of Boubacar Kamara at the base of midfield, a welcome addition to the side.

Villa are unbeaten in their last four in the league, their best run of form all season. That said, those four opponents all sit in the bottom half of the table, with two of them holding down spots in the relegation zone. 

Chelsea are heavily favored on the 3-way line, but they’ve only won six of their 13 home matches this season in the Premier League. With Liverpool awaiting in just a few days, and the rust that typically comes after an international break, it’s very possible we see Chelsea underperform once again. 

Two of the last three meetings at Stamford Bridge have seen Aston Villa walk away with a draw, and that result would not shock me here. A price of +280 is very tempting, and I’m likely to place a bit on that. But don’t overlook the double chance at +125 for a side that could very well steal all three points. 

Chelsea vs Aston Villa Over/Under analysis

The Under 2.5 is currently favored across the board, which makes sense when you look at Chelsea’s results of late. Prior to Havertz finding his scoring form with goals in three straight matches, the Blues were badly hurting for scoring. Their last two matches have each featured four goals, but prior to that they had gone nine consecutive matches without three goals being scored. We’ve only seen the Over come through once in nine Stamford Bridge matches

Aston Villa haven’t had that same problem. They’ve scored in every match under Emery, and 11 of their last 17 matches in the Premier League have gone Over. However, they’ve improved defensively under Emery, which has led to three Under hits in their last four — a span that’s seen them go unbeaten. 

If history is any indication, the Under is the way to go. Three of the last five meetings at Stamford Bridge have gone Under, including a 1-1 draw a year ago. Matches after international breaks also tend to be lower-scoring as rust comes into play.

Chelsea vs Aston Villa game info

Chelsea vs Aston Villa key injuries

Chelsea: Armando Broja F (Out), Thiago Silva D (Out), Kai Havertz F (Questionable), Reece James D (Doubtful), Wesley Fofana D (Doubtful), Mason Mount M (Doubtful), Raheem Sterling F (Probable).

Aston Villa: Matty Cash D (Out), Jed Steer GK (Out), Boubacar Kamara M (Questionable), Philippe Coutinho M (Doubtful), Leander Dendoncker D (Doubtful). 

Chelsea vs Aston Villa recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Chelsea	D-W-W-L-L
Aston Villa	W-D-W-W-L

Chelsea vs Aston Villa weather

London will be a bit cold and dreary on Saturday. Temperatures will be in the low 40s, and rain is expected off and on the entire day. There will be little wind to speak of.

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