Brighton vs Newcastle Picks and Predictions: Tight Clash at the Amex

Brighton and Newcastle have ambitions and belief they can finish in a European Cup place this season which makes this clash of the utmost importance. Our EPL betting picks believe there is little to choose from between these two clubs.

Last Updated: Sep 1, 2023 11:48 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Solly March Brighton EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Saturday’s final Premier League game sees Brighton vs. Newcastle in a huge clash at the American Express Stadium. These are two of the Premier League’s better teams, who both play an attractive brand of soccer, but who will come out on top?

This is the biggest game in the Premier League this Saturday, so make sure you don’t miss it, or our free EPL picks and predictions for Brighton vs. Newcastle.

Brighton vs Newcastle best odds

Brighton vs Newcastle picks and predictions

Brighton vs. Newcastle United is the last game up on Saturday’s Premier League slate and it’s a game that should be hugely exciting. These two clubs were arguably the biggest overachievers in the Premier League last season and there have been signs for both teams that they’re going to do well this year too.

Brighton entered this game sat sixth in the Premier League table, the same position that they finished in last May, while Newcastle are down in 13th, some way behind the fourth spot of last year. However, there are reasons behind that. Through six games, three for each club, I’ve been hugely impressed with both Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton and Eddie Howe’s Newcastle. That’s the reason that for our best bet for Brighton vs. Newcastle, we’ll be backing the draw, which you can get at +290 at some sportsbooks.

Let’s start with the home side Brighton. They opened the season with two 4-1 thrashings, first of new boys Luton Town and then Wolves before a 3-1 loss to West Ham, which came as a real shock. However, if we delve beyond the scoreline you can see that they largely dominated the game. They had double the amount of shots of West Ham, more on target, over three times the amount of passes, and had a huge 78% of possession. The reality is that West Ham played their counter-attacking brief perfectly, but on another day it could have been hugely different. 

Newcastle only have three points so far this season, but again, just like that Brighton loss to West Ham, it doesn’t tell the whole story. After starting the season with a statement victory, that incredible 5-1 demolition of Aston Villa, they faced Man City and Liverpool. They were beaten by Man City but managed to keep it to a one-goal defeat, by no means a disgrace, and they had some moments in that game. Then last week they lost 2-1 to a Darwin Nunez-inspired Liverpool. They had the lead up until the 81st minute when the Uruguayan scored the first of two sensational finishes. For large parts, they were the better team and had some very positive moments. 

So far through three games Newcastle have faced three of last year’s top seven clubs in the Premier League and in Brighton they face a fourth. It’s a seriously tough start to the season and when it comes to this match I can’t look beyond a draw. It’s a result that would be a good point for either side, especially after defeats last week. 

Two of their previous four Premier League meetings have finished level and given the quality in all positions, across both teams, this feels like a game that should finish level, potentially with a 1-1 scoreline.

My best bet: Draw (+284 at TonyBet)

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Brighton vs Newcastle same-game parlay


Solly March Over 0.5 shots on target

Anthony Gordon Over 0.5 shots on target

Go on then, let’s have a Same-Game Parlay for Brighton vs Newcastle. This one is +1000 and follows on from our best bet.

We’ll start with the draw. Both teams are evenly matched and this early in the Premier League season you can be certain that neither team will want to take risks and lose. Both teams have real quality in their ranks and a hard-fought draw feels like a far more likely result than +290 odds would indicate.

Next up we’ll be backing Solly March to have Over 0.5 shots on target. The 29-year-old Englishman has potentially been Brighton’s best player this season and can count himself unlucky to not g a call-up to Gareth Southgate’s England team. 

This year he’s added another skill to his repertoire and become a serious goal threat. He’s scored three goals through three Premier League games and is averaging an impressive 3.3 shots per game. We’re going to back him to get into more shooting opportunities and get a shot on target.

Then last up we’re going to back another player to have a shot on target, this time it’ll be Anthony Gordon. The former Evertonian didn’t have a great start to his Newcastle career since joining in January but he’s been great so far this season. Starting every game he’s scored one and looked so dangerous against Liverpool. He’s averaging 2.3 shots per game and we’re backing him to get one on target here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Brighton vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis

My best bet for this game is for the match to finish level, with the draw at a tasty +290. That said if you have a strong lean for either Newcastle at +155 or Brighton at +160 then I wouldn’t try to talk you out of it. These are two of the Premier League’s better teams and it’s not going to be often that you can get either of them at these odds this season. That said, with the quality on show I feel like they’re very closely matched and the draw makes sense from a value perspective. 

The sportsbooks are confident in Over 2.5 goals landing here, with it being available at a best price of -195. That’s probably wise given that Over 2.5 goals thas landed in all three of Brighton’s Premier League games so far this season and two of Newcastle’s three. It’s the most likely option and I think it will more than likely win, but I can’t recommend backing it at odds of -195. 

Brighton vs Newcastle game info

Location: AMEX Stadium, Brighton, England
Date: Saturday, September 2, 2023
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock Premium, fubo TV, Sling Blue, Hulu + Live TV
Weather: It’ll be a dry, sunny day with temperatures around 70 degrees at kickoff in Brighton.

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Brighton vs Newcastle key injuries

Brighton: Jakub Moder CM (Out), Julio Enciso CAM (Out)
Newcastle: Emil Krafth RB (Out), Joe Willock CM (Out), Sven Botman CB (Out), Joelinton CM (Questionable), Javier Manquillo LB (Questionable)

Brighton vs Newcastle recent league form

Teams Recent Premier League Form
Brighton Brighton L-L-W
Newcastle Newcastle L-W-W

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