Brighton vs Man City Picks and Predictions: City Continue Winning Ways

We have two mid-week Premier League games as teams make up fixtures that were rescheduled to make space for their FA Cup semifinals.

The first of which is Brighton vs Manchester City, a game which puts one of the best stories in this Premier League season — Brighton — up against the Premier League champions Manchester City.

Man City might not have anything to play for but Brighton still have dreams of climbing the table. Can they upset a Man City team who will most likely rest some players? Read our Brighton vs Manchester City free betting picks to find out.

Brighton vs Man City best odds

Brighton vs Man City picks and predictions

On Saturday, we saw Man City get crowned champions and Arsenal lost 1-0, meaning City's game on Sunday meant nothing and we saw Guardiola make some changes to his best team. They went on to win 1-0 thanks to a Julian Alvarez goal in the 11th minute. 

Meanwhile, Brighton are sixth in the EPL and barring an unusual swing of results, they probably won’t topple Liverpool to grab the fifth spot, needing only to better Aston Villa to maintain their position here.

That leads us to our best bet which I think offers some real value here: it’s Man City to win at -130. It’s been a long time since Man City were -130 to win any game in the Premier League and while I can see why the sportsbooks wouldn’t make them huge favorites, there are still so many reasons to back Man City winning even if they don’t play their absolute best lineup.

Guardiola made a number of changes, bringing in Stefan Ortega in goal and a midfield that was heavily rotated with Kalvin Phillips, Rico Lewis, and Sergio Gomez playing alongside Phil Foden.

Even in the front line, we saw a change with Alvarez coming in for Haaland, as well as Cole Palmer and Riyad Mahrez. Alvarez is arguably the best second-choice striker in the EPL and despite the other changes, it’s still a team packed with world-class players.

Man City will no doubt be celebrating this week but they still have Wednesday’s game, their final Premier League game at the weekend followed by an FA Cup final against old rivals Manchester United and a Champions League final. We'll see players rested but I think we’ll see some of his first string back in for this Brighton game and even if we don’t, there’ll still be lots of talent on the field.

Guardiola simply wouldn’t let his team go drinking wildly or be unprofessional until the season is done, they have too much at stake in those two finals, so while we’ll see some rotation, we won’t see unfit or unmotivated players. The first-stringers who play will be ready and prepared, while the bench players will be hungry to stake a claim for those finals and show their ability.

Put simply, you just don’t get Man City at -130 very often and I’m very confident that Guardiola’s professionalism and will to win will see his team put their best foot forward in these games and win them, making that -130 price a steal.

My best bet: Man City to win (-130 at DraftKings)

Brighton vs Man City side analysis

Man City’s team will see some changes from their best lineup, but I think we’ll probably see more of the first string than we saw on Sunday against Chelsea.

It makes a lot of sense for Guardiola to continue giving reps to Kalvin Phillips in midfield, as well as backup keeper Ortega. Likewise, young Rico Lewis needs to be included for his growth but outside of that, I'd expect to see some of his best players return.

Haaland will be hungry to continue to break records and might return with Alvarez playing alongside him rather than hitting the bench. We saw a back three of Alymeric Laporte, Kyle Walker, and Manuel Akanji on Sunday. While Laporte is largely a bench player, I’d expect another great backline.

The Brighton team should be its best, with Steele in goal with Veltman and Estupinan at fullback. In the heart of the defense, we’ll have Lewis Dunk and the exceptional Levi Colwill. 

This might be the final appearance for a number of Brighton’s best players at the Amex with Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo wanted by other, bigger Premier League teams. Ensico, Mitoma, and Gross will be alongside them in midfield. That’ll leave Evan Ferguson up front, giving the young Irishman another chance to showcase his talent.

Brighton have been great this season but as mentioned above, I just can’t bet against Man City at this price as we saw their second-string outclass Chelsea on Sunday.

Brighton vs Man City Over/Under analysis

You’re getting -186 on Over 2.5 goals here and +162 on the Under, so it’s pretty clear to see which way the sportsbooks think it’ll go.

We can look at the stats all you want. Brighton have gone Over 2.5 in 55.6% of their home games in the Premier League this season., with Man City smashing the Over in 52.9% of their games on the road.

The issue for me is that the bookies are telling you with the moneyline odds that they think we’ll see a rotated Man City team again but their total odds reflect the stats you’d have seen from the Man City team throughout the season, with their star players all playing.

That doesn’t make sense to me, so I’d actually back Under 2.5 at +162. It’s a good price and we could see the second-string Man City team have a narrow victory like they did over Chelsea at the weekend. I’d only back small stakes but it feels like the smartest way to play these odds.

Brighton vs Man City game info

Brighton vs Man City key injuries

Brighton: Adam Lallana CM (Out), Solly March RM (Out), Adam Webster CB (Out), Jakub Moder CM (Out), Jeremy Sarmiento FWR (Out), Tariq Lamptey RB (Out).
Man City: Nathan Ake CB (Questionable).

Brighton vs Man City recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Brighton	W-L-W-L-W
Man City	W-W-W-W-W

Brighton vs Man City weather

It’ll be just into the 60s by the South coast as Brighton will enjoy a dry but cloudy Wednesday.

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