Liverpool’s Premier League title challenge took a significant hit on the weekend and they now find themselves three points behind Manchester City. On Tuesday they face a trip to the Midlands to face Aston Villa but it’s essential they don’t drop any more points.
Can Villa finish off the Red's title hopes or will Jurgen Klopp’s men put the pressure back on City? Don’t miss our Aston Villa vs. Liverpool picks and predictions to find out.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool betting tips
- Prediction: Liverpool ML (-223)
- Prediction: Over 2.5 (-160)
- Best bet: Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT (+125)
Predictions made on 5/9/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Aston Villa vs Liverpool game info
• Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England
• Date: Tuesday, May 10, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: USA, DAZN
Aston Villa vs Liverpool betting preview
Weather
A lovely day in Aston, Birmingham will see temperatures in the low-60s with sunshine all afternoon after rain in the early morning.
Injuries
Aston Villa: Leon Bailey, FWR (Out), Kortney Hause CB (Out), Jacob Ramsey CM (Questionable).
Liverpool: Roberto Firmino ST (Questionable).
Aston Villa vs Liverpool predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
We’re being treated to lots of Premier League midweek action and Tuesday sees a fascinating clash between Aston Villa and Liverpool. There are a number of interesting narratives around the game that’ll make it much more intense.
Liverpool stumbled in their Premier League title race bid at the weekend, drawing with Tottenham in a game that gave Man City the advantage. City sits three points ahead of Liverpool on the table and with only three games left for each team, it’s essential that Jurgen Klopp’s team wins here. Failure to leave Villa Park with three points will almost certainly hand the Premier League trophy to their rivals.
Aston Villa might be comfortably safe in the league for this season, and they don’t really have much to play for, but for manager Steven Gerrard and loan star Phillipe Coutinho, it’ll give them a chance to face off against their old team.
For Coutinho, a chance to showcase his talents against his former side is something that would excite him and he’ll want to impress. It's not something Gerrard would admit to, and we know Jurgen Klopp has only recently recommitted himself to Liverpool, but for Steven Gerrard, this, and all future meetings with the Reds will be a chance to impress them if and when the managerial role becomes available.
Klopp will set up his team in his favored 4-3-3 formation, and you’d think he’d play fairly strong despite having the FA Cup Final this coming weekend. I’d expect to see Fabinho and Thiago in the midfield with either Jordan Henderson or Naby Keita besides them.
Roberto Firmino is an injury doubt and Klopp still hasn’t fully committed to Luis Diaz being a week-in, week-out starter, so Diego Jota might form the third member of the famous Liverpool attacking trio alongside Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah.
Gerrard’s team selection is more difficult, but it’s expected he’ll go with a 4-3-1-2. The backline writes themselves with Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa at the heart of the defense with Lucas Digne and Matty Cash on the flanks. John McGinn and Douglas Luiz will be in the heart of the midfield, hopefully alongside Jacob Ramsey who is doubtful to play.
The line will be led by Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins leaving Gerrard with his hardest choice, starting either Phillipe Coutinho or Emiliano Buendia in the 10th role. Buendia started at the weekend before giving way for the Brazilian, but Coutinho would be gutted to miss out on the chance to start against his former team here.
My gut instinct says Gerrard picks Coutinho but Buendia has been the better player in recent weeks and would be my choice personally.
Aston Villa have shown some real glimpses of potential at times this season but they’re still inconsistent, something which can’t be leveled at Liverpool. Klopp’s team is simply phenomenal and I have no doubt that they’ll bounce back on Tuesday.
The odds of -223 aren’t that appealing but it’s hard to see the Reds dropping points here when they’ve shown all season that they have an elite mentality. Liverpool are undefeated in their past 16 Premier League matches and have won their past three meetings against Aston Villa in all competitions. Expect them to pick up the three points.
Prediction: Liverpool moneyline (-223 at Bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Liverpool will be hurting after their draw against Tottenham on the weekend, but they have a chance to get back on the pitch and make things right, so expect them to be at their goalscoring best.
They’ve scored 87 goals this season but now trail Man City in goal differential as well, so it’s important they score more in addition to getting the three points.
There have been Over 2.5 goals in 64.7% of Liverpool’s games on the road and Aston Villa have seen Over that same number in 62.5% of their games at Villa Park. In the past six times these teams have met at Villa Park, it’s gone Over 2.5 goals each and every time. With those records in addition to the wider narrative of Liverpool needing to win big, I fully expect this total to go Over.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-160 at FanDuel)
Best bet
As we’ve covered, it’s essential Liverpool wins this game, meaning they’ll fly out of the traps looking for an early lead. Liverpool aren’t great value at -223 but the +125 available on them to be winning at halftime and fulltime is far more attractive.
They’ve scored in the first half in four of their past six Premier League games, and I’d expect their attack to put pressure on Aston Villa from the first minute. Back the Reds to score early and win this game at halftime and fulltime.
Prediction: Liverpool/Liverpool halftime/fulltime (+125 at Bet365)
