follow the shepherd (week 7)

wow

Im tryin to think if I want to throw a unit on the Saints tomm. night because they will put up points. At 3 it just looks like bait to me, What do you think on this one?

Mazda... i don't really think there's anything i need to say that you didn't hit right on the head...

i could be up 20000 units if i just make my 1 unit = to .005% of my bankroll... its nonsense...

i explained a couple of weeks ago that 1 unit for me is equal to 5% of my original bankroll, and that 1 unit amount does not change for the entire season... also, 1 unit is the highest unit amount that i bet... i also will at times play 1/2 unit or 1/4 unit... most of my ML bets are 1/4 unit or less, because they are almost always 2:1 or better payoffs... if its a low spread i will just play 1/2 unit on the ML and leave out the 1/4 or 1/2 unit side bet that accompanies all of the other ML bets...

so yea, you're understanding it right...

just to set the record straight... people who are giving me the "advice" that i need to stop betting so many games... first off, i do not need that kind of advice... that suggests that i am new to this and still trying to figure out how to manage things... nothing could be further from the truth!

last week, if you look at my final card with all of the results, if you really looked at it, you would see that i went 17-13 ATS on all of my picks...

1 unit: Tx Tech, Missou, Nevada, Tennessee (3-1)

1/2 unit: Ore St, Ariz St, BYU, Kansas, BG, Rice, Oregon, Va Tech (2-6)

1/4 unit: Cincy, Rutgers, Purdue, Fla, Ohio St, Col, Toledo, AF, Auburn, Bama, Fresno (5-6)

1/4 u totals: OU/Baylor OV, TT/KSt OV, Missou/NU OV, OkSt/A&M OV, Iowa/MSU UN, Rut/WVa UN, Bama/UK UN (7-0)

it is all there, just like every week, posted in plain sight for everyone to see... and yet i'm a bookies dream?  figure out that shit! 

my 1/4 unit plays (roughly 10 a week) are bulk plays... i don't even consider these bets to be "gambling"... it's like a mutual fund... it will hit 60%, and it will pay dividends at the end of the year... period!  i have not had a losing week on my 1/4 plays all year...

the problem isn't that i bet too many games... the problem is that i listed them all (which i hadn't done until last week)... people want to know what you like the best, and nobody is gonna ride 30 bets from 1 person... so if someone wants to say, "Hey Shep, it would help if you kept your card smaller so we can focus on just a few games to follow," i can't argue with that... that was the mistake i made... but betting too many games is not!

someone had asked the previous week if i could post my other plays, so i did... and they went 9-4... but somehow i should stop betting those games... ???

it just amazes me how hard people can look to find the negative and completely ignore the positive... afterall, i gave extensive write-ups on Missouri, TT, Nevada and UT... even predicted the exact score of the TT game within a TD... most of all, the 3 winners out of those played out exactly as i said they would... UT didn't because Fulmer decided to make it a scrimmage for his new QB instead of trying to give his team a confidence boosting, dominating win prior to the UGA game... that will come back to bite them in the ass not just this week but for the remainder of the season... they should have run twice as much as they threw the ball, but instead went 50-50... even with that, i think they had 3 possessions inside the red zone that came away with 0 points...

TRoe... good question... no good answer, but i won't make the mistake again...

DU4L... yea, i frequently bet MAC games... if you have a question on a game feel free to ask, or if you like a certain game feel free to share... 2 games stand out in the MAC, but still have to look at them... probably wouldn't be more than 1/4 unit plays...

DW & DU4L... having trouble justifying giving out picks at the moment... i don't do this as a favor to others... i do it because the feedback i get gives me an idea of the general perception, and hearing people's reasons for liking a game can really give me insight that is invaluable (see Missouri last week)... i give out picks because i see it as a fair trade... if i am getting something, i should give something back... but the reality is, i can get that information just as well without giving out picks, so if i'm just gonna catch shit for the picks then there really isn't a point to it... especially if i'm catching shit for giving out winners...

will probably wake up tomorrow in a better frame of mind... might just take a week off from this thread... regardless, my bets will be posted somewhere before game times... if for no other reason than to stick it to some of the haters...

last point, just to head this off at the pass... yes, i know i went 7-0 on totals, but no that doesn't mean that i am more of a guru on totals and should just stick with those... last week was a particularly easy week, but not every week is... just wanted to say that before someone gives me the "advice" that i should stick to picking totals...