I got great news for all you. If you found this thread you just found a literal gold mine.

So in case anyone has noticed, I have been placing daily mlb picks lately messing around with a theory I had a couple weeks ago. 

Well, I built a statistical model and backtested it 20 years and here were the results, Ill copy and paste for everyone to see.

[image from unapproved source] Backtest complete  and these results are absolutely elite.

• [image from unapproved source] Total Bets Placed: 25,923

• [image from unapproved source] Total Units Won: +5,220.62

• [image from unapproved source] ROI: +20.14%

• If you had bet 1 unit per qualifying play (based on your model’s edge rules), you would have:

  • [image from unapproved source] Placed ~25,000+ bets

  • [image from unapproved source] Profited over 5,200 units

  • [image from unapproved source] Averaged a +20.14% return on every dollar bet

  • Over 20 years, that’s $52,000 profit per $10 unit size

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I jiust finished it about 1n hour ago. None of the picks I have posted up until now qualified. I don't want to get too much into how I did it or what I used but it took me about 2 full days and this is based off the last 20 years of MLB Data.

Starting tomorrow, I will post them here, for free of course, daily. LETS CRUSH 

@JimmyGape

Without the idea behind it means nothing. Just a claim. Worthless. Honestly annoying trash. Post the system/model or honestly go away. Sick of seeing this trash.

Go fuck yourself. Only trash here is you.   

Theres no point in mentioning you have a model if you aren't going to allow people to see if it makes sense. Just post your plays. Why even mention your "model"? Its all about getting attention. I stand by my original comment. BOL to anyone following based on this "model"

Ill be happy to screenshot my evidence if anyone wants. But Im not telling people how I made it.

I applaud  your success! Welcome aboard. A winning record in the long run will validate your credibility and gain many supporters. 

 Jimmy, keep up the good work.

Congratulations and thanks for posting!

I am curious about the following:

Is that a mathematical model you're basing your research 20 years back on?

If 20.14$ ROI equals to $52,000 profits - you had to invest $258,192.65 over the period of 20 years. Cause 

If you had deposited $258,192.65 in a U.S. bank 20 years ago (in 2005) and earned an average annual interest rate of 2%, compounded annually, your account balance today (in 2025) would be approximately $383,660.70.

?? Inflation-Adjusted Value
However, due to inflation, the purchasing power of money decreases over time. According to the U.S. Inflation Calculator, $1 in 2005 is equivalent to about $1.64 in 2025, reflecting a cumulative inflation rate of 63.75% over 20 years .
In2013Dollars

To maintain the same purchasing power as $258,192.65 in 2005, you would need approximately $423,433.95 in 2025.

?? Summary
Final bank balance (2% interest): ~$383,660.70

Inflation-adjusted equivalent: ~$423,433.95

Shortfall due to inflation: ~$39,773.25

This illustrates that a 2% annual return would not have kept pace with inflation over the past two decades. To preserve and grow the real value of your savings, investments with higher returns—such as stocks, real estate, or inflation-protected securities—might have been more effective.

I can also run a mathematical model based on gradual investment of a quarter a million dollars we're talking about over the period of 20 years. I just don't think it would get any better in favor of an offered model. 

Ok Im gonna show the haters and doubters what this thing is all about and the blood sweat and tears I put in to build something absolutely legendary.

Model play #1  Tigers  -137

Scheduled Time: 3:40 PM PDT
Venue: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, spacious outfield)
Projected Starters:

• Cleveland: Ben Lively (RHP)

• Detroit: Jack Flaherty (RHP)

• xERA: 2.94 (Top 15 in MLB)

• K/BB ratio: 5.1 (elite control & whiff profile)

• Chase Rate: 32.8% (above league avg, limits walks/hard contact)

• Home Splits: Much better command & weaker opponent SLG at Comerica

• Flaherty has regained form similar to his 2019 All-Star level. In May, he’s allowed only 1 HR over 3 starts and increased his whiff rate substantially, which our model weights heavily.

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2. Guardians’ Offense vs RHP is Bottom Tier

• wRC+ vs RHP: 82 (4th-worst in MLB)

• ISO vs RHP: .118 (29th out of 30 teams)

• This is a weak contact lineup lacking extra-base power, especially against higher-velocity and breaking-ball heavy righties — exactly Flaherty’s pitch mix.

• Detroit Bullpen WAR: 2.1 (Top 10 in MLB)

• Cleveland Bullpen WAR: 0.6 (Bottom third)

• The model gives significant credit to bullpens in tightly lined games. Detroit’s late-inning arms have held opponents under a .205 average in the past two weeks.

• Tigers Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): +15 (6th in MLB)

• Comerica Park’s spacious outfield rewards rangy outfield defense — and Detroit has elite OF coverage in Parker Meadows and Riley Greene.

• This helps limit 2Bs and 3Bs — key for neutralizing Cleveland's speed/small ball game.

• Cleveland has a bigger national profile due to recent playoff appearances, but this specific version of the Guardians is overvalued.

• Detroit is quietly 9-3 in Flaherty starts and undervalued due to preseason projections.

• Model Line: Tigers -156 (true odds)

• Market Line: Tigers -130 to -135 range (implied ~54%)

• Edge: +7% — one of the strongest plays on the slate

• Recommended Unit Size: 3 units (based on our unit scale for 6%+ edge)

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Im in California, and its past 5 am and I havent slept. I been working on this thing for days straight and have barely slept. We're gonna end the books.

@JimmyGape

 o3? 

it double posted. sorry

You're - or We - can't to end the books. Nor it is our intention. But, we can mimic them. Don't forget that the books are using AI since 2021. And, once they will feel AI used by the betters is harmful - they will do one of the two or both: "enhance" historical data with irrelevant data that will drive AI crazy. And in hour of need  - go opposite expected AI outcome prediction. 

Thank. you. jimmy. us. vietnam. vets. will. follow. DETROIT. first. gl

You have the wrong SP for Cleveland.

@JimmyGape

 Yo Jimmy, we take the Tigers

 right?

Bol

Did he really say I have great news and we are going end the books……………….wow 

This seems like something copied from a sports service that has been compiling this info for many, many years. Thats okay but I find hard to believe you recently went over all this info for every team and found the lines to compile a model. The time it would take and the way it is written out says it came from somewhere else

Either way no matter where it came from I hope you and the forum find success.

Bibee Is pitching for Cleveland...

Does that change anything???

Jimmy really meant dnt kill the books keep them on life supportJimmy moving 4ward