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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    Series Plays and write up

    VLR
    bob696969
    kaponofor3
    billyweather
    1bajalife
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 1365
    Posts: 24
     
    VLR
    VLR
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 6:17 PM ET #1

    Atlanta +2.5  games  +110

    This one is slightly risky with Heinrich's injury pending.  He was going to be key in the process of guarding Rose.  If he is out, that is going to be trouble.  However, I still like Atlanta's chances of getting at least 2 games in this series.  Their length has traditionally given the Bulls problems, not so much in a rebounding edge which they had zero this year but in a defensive manner.  They stretch out quickly and contest a lot of shots.  Boozer has always struggled against length and their other players are not coped to create shots on their own (with Rose being the huge exception of course)  Even Deng is more of a slasher/spot up shooter combo. I think Atlanta is going to use Marvin Williams a lot more this series and will match up well versus Deng. The bulls are still a young team when iit comes to these playoffs and showed it in their non convincing win the first round.  One could say, that the Pacers series woke them up and will now be more focused on playing the way they have all season and conversely Atlanta will be satisfied with avenging last year's embarassment to Orlando, and it would be valid.  However, the playoffs still bring out the best efforts from every team and Atlanta knows better than anyone what its like to be humiliated in being swept.  I think Atlanta will be capable of doing what Indiana could not and split the first 2 games in Chicago with their talent and experience.  Even if they do not, they should be highly capable of winning 2 games in their home court.    


    Dallas +2.5 games -160

    Little heavy juice here at -160, but I think well worth it. The Lakers inconsistent ways and what seems like sometimes lack of interest would not have me confident in backing them to win thi series in less than 5 games.  Dallas seems to be very focused this year and more comftorable in the under the radar role they have been so far.  They are of course an extremely talented and experienced team and have been playing a much better defense than years past.  They have been using one a lot more and will probably continue to do so to try to slow down Kobe as much as they can.  Yes the Lakers are better and of course bigger, but the Mavs size differnece isn't vast with Haywood, Chandler and Dirk.  I think this series goes at least 6 if not 7 , with bot teams getting one on each others court.  It should be a great series.


    If the juice is too much at -160 (and it shouldn't be for this wager)  A parlay of the 2 bets is 1unit to win 2.3 units

    GL 
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Atlanta +2.5  games  +110

    This one is slightly risky with Heinrich's injury pending.  He was going to be key in the process of guarding Rose.  If he is out, that is going to be trouble.  However, I still like Atlanta's chances of getting at least 2 games in this series.  Their length has traditionally given the Bulls problems, not so much in a rebounding edge which they had zero this year but in a defensive manner.  They stretch out quickly and contest a lot of shots.  Boozer has always struggled against length and their other players are not coped to create shots on their own (with Rose being the huge exception of course)  Even Deng is more of a slasher/spot up shooter combo. I think Atlanta is going to use Marvin Williams a lot more this series and will match up well versus Deng. The bulls are still a young team when iit comes to these playoffs and showed it in their non convincing win the first round.  One could say, that the Pacers series woke them up and will now be more focused on playing the way they have all season and conversely Atlanta will be satisfied with avenging last year's embarassment to Orlando, and it would be valid.  However, the playoffs still bring out the best efforts from every team and Atlanta knows better than anyone what its like to be humiliated in being swept.  I think Atlanta will be capable of doing what Indiana could not and split the first 2 games in Chicago with their talent and experience.  Even if they do not, they should be highly capable of winning 2 games in their home court.    


    Dallas +2.5 games -160

    Little heavy juice here at -160, but I think well worth it. The Lakers inconsistent ways and what seems like sometimes lack of interest would not have me confident in backing them to win thi series in less than 5 games.  Dallas seems to be very focused this year and more comftorable in the under the radar role they have been so far.  They are of course an extremely talented and experienced team and have been playing a much better defense than years past.  They have been using one a lot more and will probably continue to do so to try to slow down Kobe as much as they can.  Yes the Lakers are better and of course bigger, but the Mavs size differnece isn't vast with Haywood, Chandler and Dirk.  I think this series goes at least 6 if not 7 , with bot teams getting one on each others court.  It should be a great series.


    If the juice is too much at -160 (and it shouldn't be for this wager)  A parlay of the 2 bets is 1unit to win 2.3 units

    GL 
     
    bob696969
    bob696969
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 6:26 PM ET #2

    fuck, you read my mind.  I was thinking about both these specific plays myself.... I got atl +2.5 at +100, and mavs +2.5 at -150 .... I am going to lock these in now.... 
    Reply
    fuck, you read my mind.  I was thinking about both these specific plays myself.... I got atl +2.5 at +100, and mavs +2.5 at -150 .... I am going to lock these in now.... 
     
    bob696969
    bob696969
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 6:28 PM ET #3

    .... WTF, just as i go to lock them in, hawks go to -115, and mavs go to -180! 
    Reply
    .... WTF, just as i go to lock them in, hawks go to -115, and mavs go to -180! 
     
    VLR
    VLR
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 6:33 PM ET #4

    Wow, it happened at my book too as I was typing it, I'm glad i locked it on at my stated  prices, but either way i still like the plays at  -115 and -180  
    Reply
    Wow, it happened at my book too as I was typing it, I'm glad i locked it on at my stated  prices, but either way i still like the plays at  -115 and -180  
     
    kaponofor3
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 6:38 PM ET #5

    I like both of these a lot
    Reply
    I like both of these a lot
     
    kaponofor3
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 6:38 PM ET #6

    At least, I like them at those specific returns/prices
    Reply
    At least, I like them at those specific returns/prices
     
    VLR
    VLR
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 6:45 PM ET #7

    Thanks Kap    Yea, I like atlanta at +110 obviously a lot more than laying -115 and the same with Dallas. I think alot of the Atlanta price will hinder on heinrichs injury, it didn't look good.  I imagine that Dallas price might even get up to more than -200.  I would still play it at -180 but I'm glad I did at -160
    Reply
    Thanks Kap    Yea, I like atlanta at +110 obviously a lot more than laying -115 and the same with Dallas. I think alot of the Atlanta price will hinder on heinrichs injury, it didn't look good.  I imagine that Dallas price might even get up to more than -200.  I would still play it at -180 but I'm glad I did at -160
     
    VLR
    VLR
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 6:57 PM ET #8

    " They have been using one a lot more and will probably continue to do so to try to slow down Kobe as much as they can. "

    the word "zone" is supposed to be inserted aftera lot more.  The Mavs have been using a lot more zone and will contine to do so.  I realized how empty that sentence seems without it . 
    Reply
    " They have been using one a lot more and will probably continue to do so to try to slow down Kobe as much as they can. "

    the word "zone" is supposed to be inserted aftera lot more.  The Mavs have been using a lot more zone and will contine to do so.  I realized how empty that sentence seems without it . 
     
    bob696969
    bob696969
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 7:31 PM ET #9

    Atlanta could surprise some people here.... they were playing some of their worst basketball of the season at the time of their attrocious blow-out loss to the bulls, and missing josh smith.  Factor in that boozer has some hidden injuries and smith is playing some really good ball, I think atlanta could push this to 6 or 7 games..... OR they could just revert to the maggots they often play like and get swept...lol..

    ---------------

    Dallas played poorly after the all-star break, while the lakers surged, and dallas lost their early season luster of being a serious contender.... BUT, this is NOT the same dallas team of years past... This is the most complete and dynamic dallas team in the Dirk era, and is better than the 67 win team of a few years ago that lost to GS imo...

    Reasons why they are different than years past and will be a handful for the lakers:
    1) tyson chandler... he gives them a defensive/rebounding presence to compliment dirk that was not there before... A big big improvement over haywood and dampier (from the previous years).
    2) barrea off the bench... lakers have alot of trouble with speedy point guards...
    3) Kobe is a rolled ankle away from gimping his way through the series... Kobe is a warrior, but one tweak in his ankle could reduce his effectiveness
    4) solid shooting off the bench from peja .... as long is it is not the 4th q, peja has been a solid shooter off the bench, providing some scoring punch while dirk is on the bench...
    5) the last time they played, lakers blew out the mavs.... well, the mavs were in the middle of a long road trip at that time, and playing some "exhausted ball" .... this is the lingering memory in bettors minds, but it was just a bad game for dallas and you can through it out, but it gives mavs backers extra "value"
    6) in the kobe-gasol era, lakers only play as hard as they need to, and despite all that talent and size, have moments of stalled, dead offense.  They could easily give away 2 games like they did with the hornets...



    KOBE AND DIRK HAVE NOT FACED EACH OTHER IN THE PLAYOFFS!  Seems unreal, but it is true..... this is their first playoff meeting...
    Reply
    Atlanta could surprise some people here.... they were playing some of their worst basketball of the season at the time of their attrocious blow-out loss to the bulls, and missing josh smith.  Factor in that boozer has some hidden injuries and smith is playing some really good ball, I think atlanta could push this to 6 or 7 games..... OR they could just revert to the maggots they often play like and get swept...lol..

    ---------------

    Dallas played poorly after the all-star break, while the lakers surged, and dallas lost their early season luster of being a serious contender.... BUT, this is NOT the same dallas team of years past... This is the most complete and dynamic dallas team in the Dirk era, and is better than the 67 win team of a few years ago that lost to GS imo...

    Reasons why they are different than years past and will be a handful for the lakers:
    1) tyson chandler... he gives them a defensive/rebounding presence to compliment dirk that was not there before... A big big improvement over haywood and dampier (from the previous years).
    2) barrea off the bench... lakers have alot of trouble with speedy point guards...
    3) Kobe is a rolled ankle away from gimping his way through the series... Kobe is a warrior, but one tweak in his ankle could reduce his effectiveness
    4) solid shooting off the bench from peja .... as long is it is not the 4th q, peja has been a solid shooter off the bench, providing some scoring punch while dirk is on the bench...
    5) the last time they played, lakers blew out the mavs.... well, the mavs were in the middle of a long road trip at that time, and playing some "exhausted ball" .... this is the lingering memory in bettors minds, but it was just a bad game for dallas and you can through it out, but it gives mavs backers extra "value"
    6) in the kobe-gasol era, lakers only play as hard as they need to, and despite all that talent and size, have moments of stalled, dead offense.  They could easily give away 2 games like they did with the hornets...



    KOBE AND DIRK HAVE NOT FACED EACH OTHER IN THE PLAYOFFS!  Seems unreal, but it is true..... this is their first playoff meeting...
     
    billyweather
    billyweather
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    Posts: 10705
    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 7:47 PM ET #10

    ATL wins this series in 6 games, book it     love the plays!!!
    Reply
    ATL wins this series in 6 games, book it     love the plays!!!
     
    VLR
    VLR
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    Joined: Feb, 2011
    Posts: 2068
    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 7:58 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

    Atlanta could surprise some people here.... they were playing some of their worst basketball of the season at the time of their attrocious blow-out loss to the bulls, and missing josh smith.  Factor in that boozer has some hidden injuries and smith is playing some really good ball, I think atlanta could push this to 6 or 7 games..... OR they could just revert to the maggots they often play like and get swept...lol..

    ---------------

    Dallas played poorly after the all-star break, while the lakers surged, and dallas lost their early season luster of being a serious contender.... BUT, this is NOT the same dallas team of years past... This is the most complete and dynamic dallas team in the Dirk era, and is better than the 67 win team of a few years ago that lost to GS imo...

    Reasons why they are different than years past and will be a handful for the lakers:
    1) tyson chandler... he gives them a defensive/rebounding presence to compliment dirk that was not there before... A big big improvement over haywood and dampier (from the previous years).
    2) barrea off the bench... lakers have alot of trouble with speedy point guards...
    3) Kobe is a rolled ankle away from gimping his way through the series... Kobe is a warrior, but one tweak in his ankle could reduce his effectiveness
    4) solid shooting off the bench from peja .... as long is it is not the 4th q, peja has been a solid shooter off the bench, providing some scoring punch while dirk is on the bench...
    5) the last time they played, lakers blew out the mavs.... well, the mavs were in the middle of a long road trip at that time, and playing some "exhausted ball" .... this is the lingering memory in bettors minds, but it was just a bad game for dallas and you can through it out, but it gives mavs backers extra "value"
    6) in the kobe-gasol era, lakers only play as hard as they need to, and despite all that talent and size, have moments of stalled, dead offense.  They could easily give away 2 games like they did with the hornets...



    KOBE AND DIRK HAVE NOT FACED EACH OTHER IN THE PLAYOFFS!  Seems unreal, but it is true..... this is their first playoff meeting...

    Good stuff.  I agree especially on Chandler, he has been a huge difference for them.  
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

    Atlanta could surprise some people here.... they were playing some of their worst basketball of the season at the time of their attrocious blow-out loss to the bulls, and missing josh smith.  Factor in that boozer has some hidden injuries and smith is playing some really good ball, I think atlanta could push this to 6 or 7 games..... OR they could just revert to the maggots they often play like and get swept...lol..

    ---------------

    Dallas played poorly after the all-star break, while the lakers surged, and dallas lost their early season luster of being a serious contender.... BUT, this is NOT the same dallas team of years past... This is the most complete and dynamic dallas team in the Dirk era, and is better than the 67 win team of a few years ago that lost to GS imo...

    Reasons why they are different than years past and will be a handful for the lakers:
    1) tyson chandler... he gives them a defensive/rebounding presence to compliment dirk that was not there before... A big big improvement over haywood and dampier (from the previous years).
    2) barrea off the bench... lakers have alot of trouble with speedy point guards...
    3) Kobe is a rolled ankle away from gimping his way through the series... Kobe is a warrior, but one tweak in his ankle could reduce his effectiveness
    4) solid shooting off the bench from peja .... as long is it is not the 4th q, peja has been a solid shooter off the bench, providing some scoring punch while dirk is on the bench...
    5) the last time they played, lakers blew out the mavs.... well, the mavs were in the middle of a long road trip at that time, and playing some "exhausted ball" .... this is the lingering memory in bettors minds, but it was just a bad game for dallas and you can through it out, but it gives mavs backers extra "value"
    6) in the kobe-gasol era, lakers only play as hard as they need to, and despite all that talent and size, have moments of stalled, dead offense.  They could easily give away 2 games like they did with the hornets...



    KOBE AND DIRK HAVE NOT FACED EACH OTHER IN THE PLAYOFFS!  Seems unreal, but it is true..... this is their first playoff meeting...

    Good stuff.  I agree especially on Chandler, he has been a huge difference for them.  
     
    1bajalife
    1bajalife
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 8:09 PM ET #12

    Reply
     
    VLR
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 8:13 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by billyweather:

    ATL wins this series in 6 games, book it     love the plays!!!

    thanks billy.  not sure im ready to pull the trigger yet for Atlanta to win series.  but +550 sure is nice for a live dog 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by billyweather:

    ATL wins this series in 6 games, book it     love the plays!!!

    thanks billy.  not sure im ready to pull the trigger yet for Atlanta to win series.  but +550 sure is nice for a live dog 
     
    VLR
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2011 - 9:02 PM ET #14

    Baja     Now lets get these grizz tonight
    Reply
    Baja     Now lets get these grizz tonight
     
    bob696969
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    Posted: May. 1, 2011 - 10:33 AM ET #15

    My book no longer has mavs +2.5 games wagers! 

    My current series handicapp line is Mavs +1.5 @ -130

    Reply

    My book no longer has mavs +2.5 games wagers! 

    My current series handicapp line is Mavs +1.5 @ -130

     
    dontbookme
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    Posted: May. 1, 2011 - 10:39 AM ET #16

    Mavs +2.5 is a Great Play

    I am a Lakers fan, but you got a winner here

    Reply

    Mavs +2.5 is a Great Play

    I am a Lakers fan, but you got a winner here

     
    VLR
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    Posted: May. 1, 2011 - 1:10 PM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

    My book no longer has mavs +2.5 games wagers! 

    My current series handicapp line is Mavs +1.5 @ -130


    I just saw that. Crazy.  Hope you locked it in while it was on the board even at -180.  I don't like the +1.5 as much especially at -130 , although i think its down to -115.  I can definately see the Lakers closing out in Dallas in game 6.  A better bet would be to take your chances with the Mavs to win the series IMO  at +300
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

    My book no longer has mavs +2.5 games wagers! 

    My current series handicapp line is Mavs +1.5 @ -130


    I just saw that. Crazy.  Hope you locked it in while it was on the board even at -180.  I don't like the +1.5 as much especially at -130 , although i think its down to -115.  I can definately see the Lakers closing out in Dallas in game 6.  A better bet would be to take your chances with the Mavs to win the series IMO  at +300
     
    PurduePride2206
    PurduePride2206
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    Posted: May. 1, 2011 - 1:15 PM ET #18

    Reply
     
    bob696969
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    Posted: May. 8, 2011 - 9:50 AM ET #19

    Dallas +2.5 games

    Atlanta +2.5 games ??????

    You guys going to hedge out of your bet by betting the bulls moneyline for game 4?  I think i will.  If the bulls win today, i don't like atlantas chances of winning game 5 in chicago.....  

    Reply

    Dallas +2.5 games

    Atlanta +2.5 games ??????

    You guys going to hedge out of your bet by betting the bulls moneyline for game 4?  I think i will.  If the bulls win today, i don't like atlantas chances of winning game 5 in chicago.....  

     
    VLR
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    Posted: May. 8, 2011 - 12:59 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

    Dallas +2.5 games

    Atlanta +2.5 games ??????

    You guys going to hedge out of your bet by betting the bulls moneyline for game 4?  I think i will.  If the bulls win today, i don't like atlantas chances of winning game 5 in chicago.....  


    was thinking about it. This is definately the game Atl must get.  I actually got nervous after game 2, cuz it looked like the series had the potential of getting ugly, which Friday night was.  Unless it is  for a gross payout amount ( Grizz to win it all at 100/1 )   I am not a big fan of hedging or pulling money off the table.  Think I'm gonna ride it out and hope ATL gets this one at home today.  If they don't I'll eat the loss and take the chop with the Mavs play
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

    Dallas +2.5 games

    Atlanta +2.5 games ??????

    You guys going to hedge out of your bet by betting the bulls moneyline for game 4?  I think i will.  If the bulls win today, i don't like atlantas chances of winning game 5 in chicago.....  


    was thinking about it. This is definately the game Atl must get.  I actually got nervous after game 2, cuz it looked like the series had the potential of getting ugly, which Friday night was.  Unless it is  for a gross payout amount ( Grizz to win it all at 100/1 )   I am not a big fan of hedging or pulling money off the table.  Think I'm gonna ride it out and hope ATL gets this one at home today.  If they don't I'll eat the loss and take the chop with the Mavs play
     
    HumbledGambler
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    Posted: May. 8, 2011 - 1:04 PM ET #21

    GL VLR 
    Reply
    GL VLR 
     
    VLR
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    Posted: May. 8, 2011 - 1:13 PM ET #22

    Thanks Humbled .  Gonna need that luck today for an ATL win.  Hopefully Rose got the Patrick Ewing treatment last night in the Underground Strip Club district and is a little draiined  
    Reply
    Thanks Humbled .  Gonna need that luck today for an ATL win.  Hopefully Rose got the Patrick Ewing treatment last night in the Underground Strip Club district and is a little draiined  
     
    McAlpine
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    Posted: May. 8, 2011 - 2:12 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

    Dallas +2.5 games

    Atlanta +2.5 games ??????

    You guys going to hedge out of your bet by betting the bulls moneyline for game 4?  I think i will.  If the bulls win today, i don't like atlantas chances of winning game 5 in chicago.....  



    So  you are betting that Atlanta will win at least one more. Yeah, I'd be nervous too.

    Like your write-up on the Mavs. I used to be a fan, and got tired of being disappointed by their early playoff disappearances (like last year's).

    Not many people were talking about the Mavs winning the West before the beat the Lakers three times in a row. In fact, they're not talking much about it now! The Mavs are -185 to win the West at The Greek, and the Thunder and Grizzlies are both + 485.

    What do you think, can the Mavs beat the Grizzlies (I think it will be the Grizzlies)? I think they have about an even chance, and are probably over-valued by the books' line.

    BTW, really like your avatar.    
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

    Dallas +2.5 games

    Atlanta +2.5 games ??????

    You guys going to hedge out of your bet by betting the bulls moneyline for game 4?  I think i will.  If the bulls win today, i don't like atlantas chances of winning game 5 in chicago.....  



    So  you are betting that Atlanta will win at least one more. Yeah, I'd be nervous too.

    Like your write-up on the Mavs. I used to be a fan, and got tired of being disappointed by their early playoff disappearances (like last year's).

    Not many people were talking about the Mavs winning the West before the beat the Lakers three times in a row. In fact, they're not talking much about it now! The Mavs are -185 to win the West at The Greek, and the Thunder and Grizzlies are both + 485.

    What do you think, can the Mavs beat the Grizzlies (I think it will be the Grizzlies)? I think they have about an even chance, and are probably over-valued by the books' line.

    BTW, really like your avatar.    
     
     
    VLR
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    Posted: May. 8, 2011 - 2:43 PM ET #24

    well, if you think its gonna be the Grizz, then Mavs -185 wouldnt be bad.  I hope its the grizz just cuz i got them at +100 to win it all.  I'm certainly not banking on that play though, but ya never know. Just like Atlanta 
    Reply
    well, if you think its gonna be the Grizz, then Mavs -185 wouldnt be bad.  I hope its the grizz just cuz i got them at +100 to win it all.  I'm certainly not banking on that play though, but ya never know. Just like Atlanta 
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