Posted:
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Before I get into this, people need to know that I did not bet this side last night. NE was my lean (I posted my opinion in this forum yesterday), but I did not make a play.
But I just can't sit back without making a few comments about what I saw this weekend.
First off, I have no problem at all with anyone who was on the Bungles. HOWEVER, I can't even count the number of posts I saw where someone's COMPLETE rationale was, "Vegas is on Cincy....Vegas always wins....I'm on Cincy." Or even better: "The whole forum is on NE and the over...give me Cincy and the under."
It's almost embarassing to read (which makes me wonder how embarassing it is to write it).
People are so concerned with what Vegas is "trying to do to them"......so concerned that they "bet with Vegas." It's almost like they completely throw capping the game out the window. I actually read one post where someone said, "I've capped this game rather extensively and just love NE, but I think I'll have to play Cincy." 
So psyched out by all this "who is the public on" and chicken to be called a "square" that they threw their research and hard work right out the F-N window. A person who obviously tried to take an objective look at this game completely paralized by the pressure to not be a square betting on Cincy.
People thowing out wagerline percentages in their attempt to fade the public? Can anyone tell me who this POSSIBLY can be any more then a sampling of a TINY amount of wagerers that may or may not provide ANYTHING tangible in terms of the information you are really looking for (ie. where the money is going).
And another thing.....I saw one post where someone was saying that anyone who bet NE last night were the same people who backed Philly the night before. Sour grapes. I'm sure many who backed Philly backed NE last night. But many who were on the Giants also did. 
One of the things human beings do to provide structure where there isn't a lot (and in sports betting, there are TONS of unknowns) is to make blanket statements. They categorize....they come up with systems. They try to give a structure where maybe there isn't one to be had.
If you ask me, that's what a lot of this is. It's the same old thing every year. Dogs go off and people start laughing at all the favorite backers. Favs have a nice week and people start laughing at all the "squares" who will, of course, eventually be led to slaughter. You really can't make it up.
Can you make money CONSISTENTLY betting only extremely popular favs in football? Probably not. But does that mean that you have to throw your capping COMPLETELY out the window because you really like a popular favorite that particular week? Go ahead if you want, but I won't.
There are plenty of people who have been around here a long time....vanzack, Helmut (as much as I think he's a dick, I respect his knowledge when it comes to sports betting), depeche2, fever, rush.....the list goes on and one.
How often do you see them posting "contrarian plays" because a line is "too good to be true?"
Now all that said, I read some pretty convincing arguments to take Cincy and the points last night (although I wasn't sold on the ML at all). But I also read some very convincing arguments from people who I respect who were on the other side. Does this really mean that every person who backed NE had not a clue what was going on or is a lousy capper? C'mon folks, get real.
Perhaps a little more discussion about why a certain play makes sense and a little less conspiracy theory, betting with Vegas, and fading the public might be a good thing.
I can hardly wait to go to the baseball forum and see what kinds of accusations regarding a conspiracy against the Padres are being thrown around.
All this said, one absolutely should pay attention to line movement....and attempt to find out why a line is the way it is if you deem it "fishy" (a word I hate by the way). But please don't always be so quick to start talking about black helicopters.
That is my rant for the week.
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