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Squares, Fading the Public, Contrarian Plays, and Last Night

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Posted: #26
....vegas may have lost the side on MNF but im sure they evened out on the total and juice.
 
 
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Posted: #27
was the public really all over NE in this game?

according to wagerline percentages only 66% were on NE.... not really huge number.....

I dont know if this game was really a fading the public type of game.... If people claimed it was perhaps they were mistaken, assuming that any bet on NE was public bet.....

There was once a guy who stated that NE was overrated and "fade the public" and insisted on betting very game ATS and money line against NE...
He became the joke of the forum and his "system" was something you could fade to win....

The last real fade the public plays (where 80% or more was on one side) were on September 16th...

NO@TB with 18.76% on TB
and
CIN@ CLE with 16.94% on CLE

other then that according to wagerline, the "public" has NEVER been on a team more then 80% this season....

IMO, anything other then these two plays are not solid grounds for fading the public...

So I still believe that lopsided money often loses (2-0 this season)....  but last night was not a true example of fading the public....  So to jump on squares,  contrarians etc. maybe unrealistic....  I do support however people that say "fade the public" that don't know what they are talking about...




 
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Posted: #28
perhaps the last line of my post came off wrong in that I support criticism of people that blindly say fade the public pretending to be a "square"..... I do not support them or this type of thinking...
 
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Posted: #29
So with you Hutch and others. 

Anytime I hear the words "trap","fishy", "sharp" and the like, I generally ignore the threads.  I want (and want to share when possible) real info about stats and match-ups and key injuries etc.  Not people trying to parse what Vegas wants. 

My least favorite line is when people write, "Vegas doesn't hand out money."  (the light bulb emoticon always partic irritates me) If you believe that is true, that every line is exactly correct, you should never wager.  Most lines will be correct, but the fun is hunting for good plays that offer value.

My favorite thing that I have seen in baseball is when team A is a small fave and then late the other side (team B) gets bet up until the other side is the small fave.  Then people alert everyone about the line move and say they are blindly on team B, in order to be with the sharps.  Even if that was "sharp" money that moved the line, experts are generally pounding incorrect numbers, not guessing results.  So when team A was at -110, there was value on team B, and then B was bet up and all that value sucked out, and then people are tailing that and blindly betting team like there is a fix in or something.  But all they are doing is betting team B when the price now offers no value.  Brilliant.


 
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Posted: #30
I appreciate everyone's comments.  A lot of astute things said.  I realize that this subject has been covered before by many (vanzack and many others have addressed in a lot of different forms).
 
I suppose it's like the word "lock."  It's probably going to be a part of covers forever.  I suppose the minute a popular favorite goes down, people will forget about games like the Cincy/NE and MN/GB games as people tend to focus on the things that happen to support what they think.
 
Everyone is here to make money.  I just think people should not be afraid to go with their capping/objective analysis even if it sometimes flies in the face of what Vegas APPEARS to want.
 
GL to everyone this week as they start tearing apart games. 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #31
another Interesting Rant which I totally agree on which Hutch says
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #32
...One thing is to say ...This is a contrarian play...or I'm fading the public  ....and another is to offer specific numbers that have worked over a long period of time ...that will specifically back up a certain  play on any given night ...
It is the ambiguity in which a side is presented  without proper numbers to back up their postition  that  leads people to use such overused terms such as Contrarian plays , fading the public , Vegas traps , and being a square...and so on ..... 
That's all ...
 
 
 
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Posted: #33
I saw an article regarding Contrarian investing ...and thought it was
interesting ...
I'm wording and excerpt so that it so that it applies to wagering  in sports
 
Definition of a contrarian >>>>
 
" One who rejects the majority opinion "
 
Many people  believe the definition of a contrarian strategy consists of nothing more than looking at what the " public"  as a whole is doing, and doing the opposite. The crowd is running North? Run South.

This misses the point. Think about it. If you always do the exact opposite of what the crowd is doing, you're still controlled by the crowd.

What's more, the crowd isn't always wrong. As the saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

In our minds, the true definition of contrarian strategy is simply thinking for yourself. If the herd is running north, we might run South. But we might also run East, West, or sometimes even North. But always for our own reasons, never just because of the way the herd is running.

In fact, a contrarian often makes his biggest profits along with the herd. Think of  investing in boring, forgotten, undervalued teams, then ride the wave when the crowd finally discovers them. It's hard to lose when you buy things for less than they're worth.

Being a contrarian can be scary at times. It can take courage to go the other way when everyone you talk to is gushing about how they're getting rich in the hot trend of  this team or that team.

But which takes more courage, in the end? Thinking for yourself, or following the herd —

So start a revolution — think for yourself.

 

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