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New YPPT Method

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Posted: #351
been checkin out the system......for tonights game...does it matter that san diego has played one fewer game than denver when you are computing your numbers...just a question????that is why denver has more total yards on average....just asking...please let meknow thanks
 
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Posted: #352

lou4062

If you know someone who uses excel they can teach you the basics in 2-3 minutes. (Thats what I had to do this past week.)

GL

 
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Posted: #353
its a bit confusing, but im going to go with
 
Denver 21
 
San Diego 13
 
 
Hope this is right
 
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Posted: #354

gabs24

I don't think how many games a team has played makes a whole lot of difference. I personally care more about the level of competition each team has played and how well they did against that certain level. My formula takes into account whether a team is just beating up on poor teams (NY Giants) or if  a team is playing well against more formidable opponents (N.O. Saints). That being said no system is perfect that is why I am constantly looking for ways to enhance what I already have. Suggestions are always welcome.

 
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Posted: #355
Roughshod31 how comfortable are you with denver +3.5??
 
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Posted: #356

KaraMel

I am as comfortable with the Broncos +3.5 as I am with any of my selections in this forum. The fact that the Chargers are favored makes me stop to ask why this. The Chargers have been very one dimensional so far this season. That being said I don't think the Charger running game will be held in check all season. I will be backing what has easily been the best defense this season in the Broncos. Remember there are no SURE THINGS in gambling.

GL

 
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Posted: #357
be very careful on this game.  stats vs. stats.  It looks like Broncos will win by a good touchdown but sunday games have show me that even a better team can lose.  Look at eagles, jets, and bengals.  All three of them should win SU against the other team but it's not the case.  Match maker knew this before setting up the spread for this game.  I think this game is either chargers or no play in my opinion.
 
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Posted: #358
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

This morning I made some minor adjustments to the original YPPT formula from 10/11.

Whats New

Adjustment for HFA of 3.5 Pts.  -1.75 Away/+1.75 Home

Take into account average number of plays both OFF/DEF.

Take into account average yards per play both OFF/DEF.

These changes alter the projected outcomes very little from original YPPT formula.

Tonights Projected Outcome Using these Changes.

Denver            389 Total Yds.  16.76 YPPT       (23.21 PTS)

San Diego        288 Total Yds.  26.79 YPPT       (10.75 PTS)

Adjusted Projected Score

Denver       23.21 - 1.75 HFA = 21.46                      21

San Diego  10.75 + 1.75 HFA = 12.50                      13

GL



I'm with you bro! BOL!
 
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Posted: #359
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

This morning I made some minor adjustments to the original YPPT formula from 10/11.

Whats New

Adjustment for HFA of 3.5 Pts.  -1.75 Away/+1.75 Home

Take into account average number of plays both OFF/DEF.

Take into account average yards per play both OFF/DEF.

These changes alter the projected outcomes very little from original YPPT formula.

Tonights Projected Outcome Using these Changes.

Denver            389 Total Yds.  16.76 YPPT       (23.21 PTS)

San Diego        288 Total Yds.  26.79 YPPT       (10.75 PTS)

Adjusted Projected Score

Denver       23.21 - 1.75 HFA = 21.46                      21

San Diego  10.75 + 1.75 HFA = 12.50                      13

GL



ugh! i still can't figure out where I went wrong with your formula

After losing about $1140 tonight, I realized that the YPPT of the formula I had was way wrong and by adjusting the formula, instead of

Denver 19
San Diego 26

i got

Denver 20
San Diego 14

this is not including HFA. do you feel that HFA is really that essential?

I was wondering how you got 288 total yards for San Diego. my yppt formula is definitely different than yours, but my yppt for denver was 16.6 and san diego was 27.05 so im not too worried about that. the thing thats way off on mine is that SD has a projected 354.1 yards!
 
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Posted: #360
roughshod

i figured out what I did wrong, my formulas are still a little different than yours but are approximately similar. I was wondering if you think that the SOS multiplier should have a different formulas for the NFL and NCAA? I think they should. Also, I think the HFA -1.75/+1.75 should have more of an effect in NCAA than in the NFL

 
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Posted: #361
roughshod,

Can you make a screen capture video showing how you do this?  This is very intriguing but I'm lost in the math.  Or send me a pm, would'ya?
 
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Posted: #362
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

This morning I made some minor adjustments to the original YPPT formula from 10/11.

Whats New

Adjustment for HFA of 3.5 Pts.  -1.75 Away/+1.75 Home

Take into account average number of plays both OFF/DEF.

Take into account average yards per play both OFF/DEF.

These changes alter the projected outcomes very little from original YPPT formula.

Tonights Projected Outcome Using these Changes.

Denver            389 Total Yds.  16.76 YPPT       (23.21 PTS)

San Diego        288 Total Yds.  26.79 YPPT       (10.75 PTS)

Adjusted Projected Score

Denver       23.21 - 1.75 HFA = 21.46                      21

San Diego  10.75 + 1.75 HFA = 12.50                      13

GL

 

Ok roughshod,

With these new adjustments, I am assuming you are still using the rush and pass yards from before?  Also, are you using sos part two?  I understand the HFA but how did you account for the yards per play and number of plays?

Thanks

 
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Posted: #363
could somebody type this out with the current stats for the tulsa/utep game?  i am really close to figuring this out but need to check my numbers...
 
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Posted: #364
Hi roughshod,
Any idea how well your model predicts point differentials vs. win / lose?
 
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Posted: #365
pretty impressed by this method, are you going to be posting the picks for every game?
 
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Posted: #366
Been following this system and it makes a lot of sense (and its been scary accurate at times).  I would use it to do an initial screening of the games to pick your plays for the week and look at those games for situations that you like.
It also seems more accurate with pro team.  NCAA has too many team, too much talent disparity, too many players, too many different offensive systems, too many blow outs, etc. for a Yards per point to accurately predict the outcome. Of course I could be totally wrong. 
Has anyone come up with a way to figurSubmite in Special Teams into this system?  GLTA
 
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Posted: #367
Has anyone come up with a way to incorporate Special Teams numbers into this system? 
 
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Posted: #368
I will have too look at this more intensely.

One thing in Football there are a lot of injuries?
 
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Posted: #369

I made some other small alterations to this system. This time involving SOS Multiplier. I will use Tulsa/UTEP game as a test sample.

Tulsa    490 Total YDS    13.93 YPPT      35.22
UTEP    290 Total YDS     14.93 YPPT      19.39
I am also testing a different NCAA HFA Method where I start with 3.5 & add or subtract 1 point for every 7points in Sagarin Power Rating Differential.

Projected Score

Tulsa  34

UTEP 21

We'll have to see how well this works tomorrow.




 
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Posted: #370
The system (your original system with statfox stats went 9-5-0 this weekend in the NFL sides).

The system picked 50% in college football. For two straight weeks, it has picked good numbers in the NFL.

I'd personally stick to NFL.

College football, there are too many teams, too many games, too many blowouts, and teams face AA teams. Sagarin SOS numbers (or any person keeping track of college football SOS) is more difficult and less accurate to predict.






 
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Posted: #371
hey roughshod are you going to do week 7 this week this system is somewhat successful,  how you do on week 6?
 
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Posted: #372

 

Great thread !!!

 
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Posted: #373
keep it up roughshod!
 
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Posted: #374

roughshod what do you think I used the same off/def ave but only used Tulsa/UTEP last 3 off/def games may give and indication if a team is hot or cold

Tulsa  241+277=518/12yppt=43.16

UTEP 126+141=267/16.5yppt=16.18

Tulsa 42

UTEP 17

 
 
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