***Game 2: +EV Bettor's Statistical Analysis***

In Game 1, Dr. John's statistical model pegged a fair line for the game at Warriors -10.3 and the game ended by 10 (https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103245186/game-1-analysis/1).

With last night's tickets cashing on both plays (2-0; Cavs +7.5 1H and Cavs +12.5; unofficial lean to Over 214.5 also cashed), Dr. John has now hit at 54.73% on 203 bets in the NBA playoffs. Wagering 2% of bankroll per bet, that amounts to an EV of +0.086% of bankroll per bet.

***Game 2 Analysis***

Much is riding on the tentative status of Iguodola. While he is officially listed as a Questionable designation, per the most up-to-date information, it looks as though he is actually closer to Doubtful for a Game 2 comeback.

Assuming Iguodola does not play, Dr. John's statistical model favors the Warriors by just 10.9 points. This is more than Game 1, and while it reflects the tendency for teams off of a loss in the playoffs to play better in the game that immediately follows, there was also an adjustment made for terrible defender Tristian Thompson playing relatively more minutes and oustanding performer Kyle Korver playing relatively less minutes than originally anticipated.

That being said, there are several intangible factors that favor the Warriors in this game. Namely, an angle playing on Home teams with an above average Home Court advantage playing teams with below average Road performance in the playoffs. In addition to this, it is all but hard fact that Steve Kerr is a more capable coach that Ty "Step Over" Lue. And this is evidenced by the Warriors 2H dominance (particularly in 3Q) throughout the playoffs, as well as in Game 1.

With respect to the intangible angle of Kerr being a better coach and this occurrence manifesting itself in strong halftime adjustments (and a strong 2H accordingly), it would be expected that the Warriors outperform the Cavaliers more in the 2H than in the 1H.

It necessarily follows that, the maximum 1H line should be no greater than Cavs +5.5. In fact, it should be several points lower than this. As seen in Game 1, by taking the 1H line we are effectively negating the coaching intangible angle to a large extent, and though there is still the additional intangible angle that favors the Warriors to contend with, there is value on the Cavs receiving so many points.

Take the Cavs +6.5 1H, down to +6 -115, and Cavs +12, down to Cavs +11.5 -110.

Official Plays are:

Cavs +6.5 1H -105 for 2 Units

Cavs +12 -110 for 2 Units

Wanted to release these plays good and early, as there is a fair chance the lines come down from where they are currently prior to gametime.

Update: Unfortunately now the number is hanging at 11.5. Either the sharps got wind of Dr. John's analysis/plays, or the number moved down organically. Though it is likely the former.

the diagnosis sounds spot on yet again Dr.John gl 

I am beginning to think Kerr is not as good as the pundants make him out to be...lets face it, he inherited a winning lottery ticket when he took over for Mark Jackson...i am of the believer Kerrs success is more of a personality manager, rather than a basketball xs and os head coach type...anyone would look to be a competent coach when you are sitting on the Globetrotters bench...put Kerr on this years Atlanta or Chicago or Sacramento and hes just another useless HC like they all are when their teams are bottom feeders....although i dont like Lue either, he knows his role and is a very good assistant HC to James.

Regarding game two, i have to believe Durant plays alot better, and if he does, Warriors could easily win this game by 15+....we have never seen such inner turmoil and drama between a megastar like James and a role player starter like JR...and practically everyone else on the Cavs let Lebron down too...Korvers dumb touch foul on Klays 3 late, Hills missed FT, Loves terrible possession late jacking up a really bad shot, Clarkson laying bricks all game long, Thompson being useless as usual, Green being invisible all game...really the only legit player other than James showed up was Nance Jr who played great in his limited minutes...i have a hard time thinking the Cavs have the intestinal fortitude to overcome their misfortunes in game 1 and keep this one close...i think Steph and Klay bring back the splash brothers, while KD steps up with a much better effort...i do believe the Over is also a legit betting option in this game....the league loves scoring in the finals for maximum entertainment purposes, so i expect a ton of cheap fouls all game long leading to many more freebies at the ft line helping the total to nudge over...120 -102 type game is how the peoples champ  sees this one.

BOL Dr.John...dont know why i felt the desire to go all Mr.Bator here with such amazing free analysis, but your style speaks to me and i like it 

Jealousy is an ugly beast.

Dr. John is having a difficult time understanding...+7.5 1H and +12.5 would have hit...with or without OT. Can you clarify?

back before Dr. John’s sobriety, he would’ve asked you for your drug dealer. The warriors were the beneficiary from these “questionable” calls. Otherwise the Cavs win outright. Anyone with a brain saw that.

dubs covering this one and winning it convincingly...

The thing is, Dr. John would love nothing more than for you to have a legitimate stance based off of defensible facts and to be able to debate this stance.

Unfortunately, however, as it stands, your assertion is based off of nothing more than the eye test, and this is why you are a negative Expected Value bettor, regarded by your bookie as nothing more than a pathetic cash cow.

Nice analysis.  I’ll be following you doc 

Update:

Iguodola has been downgraded to Doubtful once again, as Dr. John predicted.

Regarding the line, there is still a little line value at +11.5 -110 - though Kelly would dictate this is only a 1 unit play (it’s still available at -105 at certain shops).

That said, this line could very well get down to 11 by close. Though at that number, there may be some sharps willing to bite due to the aforementioned intangible angles that favor the Warriors and because it is a fair line.