Sony Open in Hawaii 2023 Picks & Predictions: Can Hoge Build Off Kapalua Form?

Tom Hoge impressed with a T3 finish at Kapalua over the weekend but despite an increase in betting action, is coming to a place he's historically struggled in Waialae Country Club. We break it all down in our best Sony Open betting picks below.

Last Updated: Jan 11, 2023 7:37 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The PGA Tour's vacation to Hawaii continues this week at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii.

The likes of Tom Kim and Jordan Spieth are atop the Sony Open in Hawaii odds board, but my betting card looks beyond the top dogs and is prioritizing course history over form, as guys who didn't play last week likely haven't played in over a month. 

Read more in my best Sony Open picks and predictions below.

Sony Open in Hawaii picks

Picks made on 1/10/2023 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Sony Open in Hawaii matchup predictions

There will be a few more eyes than usual on Tom Hoge as he looks to follow up on an impressive T3 finish at Kapalua over the weekend. However, I have some reservations as it pertains to this golf course and this matchup with Corey Conners. 

Hoge has brought good form to Waialae in each of the last two years yet hasn't been able to figure this place out. In 2021, he finished T3 in his most recent start ahead of the Sony but missed the cut. Last year, he finished T4 leading up to this event but missed the cut again, and actually went on to finish runner-up at the Amex and win at Pebble Beach not even a month later. 

His overall track record of seven starts does include a third-place finish (2018) and a T12 (2020), but it also includes four missed cuts and a T71. I don't love that against an in-form Corey Conner (Top-25 finishes in last five worldwide starts) who's also gone T3-T12-11 in his last three Sony tries.

Sony Open in Hawaii top finisher predictions

There are four Aussies teeing it up at Waialae this week  Adam Scott, Cameron Davis, Aaron Baddeley, and Harrison Endycott — and while most books have Cam favored to be the top finisher in the +110 to +130 range, FanDuel actually has Scott favored with Davis second at +140... I like that value a lot. 

Having not played since a pair of starts in his home country in early December (one of which was a T7), Cam should be fresh this week. And while the veteran Scott had some great finishes during the FedEx Cup Playoffs and has played more recently, his 29th-place finish out of 38 guys at Kapalua doesn't instill much confidence. He only broke 70 in two of four rounds (70-68-72-69) in what might be the most gettable course these guys will play all year.

The 2013 Masters winner has gone T41-MC-T56 in his last three Sony Open starts with his last good result here coming back in 2014. Meanwhile, the 41-year-old Baddeley has missed six cuts while finishing inside the Top 35 just three times in his last 12 PGA Tour starts. Endycott has also missed three of six Tour cuts since coming up from the Korn Ferry Tour but has a couple of Top-15 finishes in some of the season's lighter fields (Bermuda and Fortinet). 

Getting the talented Cam at +140 here in what could ultimately play out as a 1-on-1 matchup is a steal. Jump all over it. 

Keith Mitchell has made his hay as a second-tier PGA Tour. He hasn't won since the 2019 Honda but with form that comes and goes, there are windows of opportunity where he becomes a very profitable bet. This week is one of those times.

In five Sony Open starts, Mitchell has missed just one cut. Those four finishes are all of the Top 25 variety, with each an improvement on the year prior — the best of which was last year's T7 finish which was highlighted by a final-round 63. 

He continues to be a monster off the tee (12th in strokes gained, fourth in driving accuracy) but approach play (136th) and putting (101st) often stand between him and consistent contention. However, that hasn't been the case for him at Waialae, gaining strokes in both of those areas in each of the last two years. The juicy +210 odds are just the cherry on top.

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