Germany vs Greece Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

A spot in the men’s basketball final four is on the line at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games as Germany battles Greece.

Germany — the reigning World Champions — are 8-point favorites in the Olympic basketball odds, but they’ll have to contend with Giannis Antetokounmpo, arguably the best player in the field in Paris.

Check our Germany vs. Greece predictions below, complete with our free Olympic betting picks.

Germany vs Greece prediction

My best bet
Greece +8 (-110)

My analysis

Germany finished first in Group A, joining Canada and the United States as the undefeated teams moving into knockout play. They were hardly challenged en route to the quarterfinals, winning by an average of 15.7 points. Their +47 point differential was second only to the Americans.

They’ve been paced by the backcourt play of Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner. Schroder is averaging 19.7 points and nine dimes, while Wagner leads the team in scoring at 21.7 points while adding five rebounds, two assists, 1.7 steals, and one block.

Germany is averaging 89.3 points per game, ranking third. They are hitting at a sharp 60.7% from 2-point range and a respectable 37.9% from distance, both of which rank Top 4 of the teams left standing.

And yet, it wouldn’t be a total shocker if Germany were to fall to Greece — a team that had just one win in the group stage and needed to sneak in on point differential. That’s how good Giannis Antetokounmpo can be on any given night.

The Greek Freak leads the Olympics in scoring at 27 points per game while ranking inside the Top 4 in minutes played. He’s also Top 8 in rebounds (7.7).

His 15 shot attempts per game leads the tournament, and he’s hitting at a ridiculous 68.9% clip. Nobody ranked ahead of him has attempted more than 16 field goals over three games.

That star power has been enough to keep the Greeks within striking distance all tournament. While they knocked off Australia 77-71, they also lost by just seven points to the Canadians and by six to the Spaniards.

Germany has a frontline that can at least throw live bodies at him, including the likes of Mo Wagner, Isaac Bonga and Daniel Theiss, and that depth should be key in helping Germany advance. Still, Antetokounmpo’s determination should help keep his team in range.

Too tall a total

My Giannis Antetokounmpo prop: Under 28.5 points (-130)

After lighting Canada on fire in the opener with 34 points on 11-for-17 shooting from the field, Giannis has been great, but not totally all-world since. His point total prop is simply too high.

He tallied 27 points, 11 rebounds and three assists against Spain on 12-for-17 shooting, then closed the knockout stage with 20 points, seven boards and six assists against Australia.

Those six dimes were a tourney-best for him, and Germany will likely lean into this formula, hoping the talent drop-off from Giannis shows itself in the quarterfinal.

After Antetokounmpo, Vasilis Toliopoulos is the next-highest scorer for Greece, in 29th at 12 points per game. Thomas Walkup is the only other Greek player inside the Top 45 in scoring.

Giannis should be seeing a ton of bodies Tuesday. He’ll have no choice but to trust the right play leads to something good. 

Germany vs Greece same-game parlay (SGP)

Schroder leads the tournament in assists and has helped the Germans tie the Americans for the best assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.9. After limiting the more iso-heavy attack of Canada to 18 assists in its opener, Greece has allowed 23.5 assists per game over the last two against Australia and Spain.

Schroder’s strength is probing the defense while attacking on the pick and roll and making the right play. Since opening with six assists in a blowout win over Japan, Schroder has topped this assist line with ease over the last two.

Let’s wrap this SGP with Antetokounmpo’s rebounding line, set at 8.5. We’ve talked about Germany’s frontcourt potentially causing trouble for him, but that’s with the ball in his hands.

He has only topped this line once in the Group Stage, pulling down 11 boards against Spain. But with his offense potentially being nullified by the German gameplan, Giannis will be looking for another way to contribute in this must win.

Germany is second-last in rebounding in Paris, with Greece just a spot above them. Antetokounmpo’s effort should help his team win that battle, and this leg of the parlay.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Germany vs Greece odds

Odds as of 8-5.

Germany vs Greece game info

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