The Toronto Maple Leafs are fresh off a big win over the Buffalo Sabres, with the newly-acquired Ryan O’Reilly scoring a hat trick in just his third game in the blue and white. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Wild have won four straight games thanks to some strong goaltending, but come into tonight’s contest potentially missing two key pieces on their blueline.
Will O’Reilly continue to find success with his new team, or can a shorthanded Minnesota defense shut down Toronto on Friday night? Find out in our Wild vs. Maple Leafs NHL picks and predictions for Friday, February 24.
Wild vs Maple Leafs best odds
Wild vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Toronto has won three of its last four games while scoring at least five goals in each of those victories. Most of the club’s top stars are firing on all cylinders as William Nylander, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner have posted seven points apiece over that span. While Ryan O’Reilly stole the show with his three-goal performance, Marner also had a notable night as he tied a franchise record with five assists in Toronto’s road 6-3 win over Buffalo.
Auston Matthews has been quiet with just one goal and four points in his last four games, but if the reigning Hart Trophy and Rocket Richard winner can heat up, the Maple Leafs could arguably have the strongest top-six in the NHL coming down the stretch.
Down at the other end, the Wild could be missing two defensemen in Jonas Brodin, who was placed on injured reserve Thursday with a lower-body injury, as well as Jon Merrill, who’s listed as questionable due to illness. Brodin will be an especially big loss, as the left-handed defenseman has been a minute-muncher for Minnesota, leading the team in ice time (22:52) while ranking second among Wild blueliners with an impressive 57.41 goals for percentage at 5-on-5 this season.
Goaltending has also been a strength for the Wild, who benefitted from a shutout victory on Thursday night against the Columbus Blue Jackets, as Marc-Andre Fleury stopped all 30 shots he faced. It’s their other goaltender, though, who’s been particularly impressive of late — Filip Gustavsson is 4-0-1 in his last five appearances, posting a .948 SV% over that span.
While Gustavsson has been hard to beat, he’ll be backstopping the undermanned blueline of a team on the second half of a back-to-back. Look for the Maple Leafs to stay in rhythm and put up some goals once again.
My best bet: Maple Leafs Over 3.5 goals (-115 at DraftKings)
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Wild vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Leafs head into Friday night as the big favorite on the moneyline, coming in at around -200 on most books. While the Wild have been playing some sound defensive hockey and picking up wins, they haven’t faced an opponent as good as the Maple Leafs during their four-game run. The Leafs, meanwhile, should be poised for a late-season surge with the addition of O’Reilly, who’s obviously paying dividends already.
Recent history between the two teams gives Toronto an edge as well, with the Buds coming out on top in four of the last five meetings, and the favorite having won 17 of the last 22 contests between the clubs.
Additionally, Toronto has been hot at home with a 4-1-1 record in its last six games at Scotiabank Arena. Minnesota, on the other hand, has lost five consecutive road outings while allowing 4.2 goals per game over that span.
Ilya Samsonov has also enjoyed playing at home in his first season with Toronto, boasting a 16-2-1 record through 19 appearances at Scotiabank Arena along with a 2.06 GAA and a .924 SV%. Samsonov trails only Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevksiy (17-4-2) for the most home wins among all goaltenders this season.
Wild vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 6 on most books but shifted up to 6.5 on some through Thursday evening, possibly due to the news about Brodin and Merrill. We normally expect a lower-scoring game when the Wild take the ice, but those injuries, plus the fact that Minnesota is playing on no rest, could certainly have an impact on how this matchup shapes up.
If we look at recent head-to-head contests, the Under has certainly been the smart pick as it’s 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings in Toronto and 14-4-1 in the last 19 meetings overall.
The counterargument would be that the Leafs generally play higher-scoring games, as evidenced by the Over going 4-1 in their last five contests and 4-1-1 in their last six home outings.
If we assume that Toronto holds up its end of the bargain and pots at least four goals, the question becomes whether Minnesota will be able to score at least two. The Wild, who rank 25th in goals per game (2.84), have scored two or more goals in five straight games — though it’s worth nothing that they scored exactly two in four of those contests.
Long story short, if you believe in the Maple Leafs’ offense, it’s probably fair to assume we’ll see at least six goals in this one.
Wild vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
Over is 4-1 in Maple Leafs' last five overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs Maple Leafs.
Wild vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, February 24, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
Bally North, TSN4 |
Wild vs Maple Leafs key injuries
