Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Target Connor's Shot Prop on Tuesday

Despite Kyle Connor's mini-slump in production during the Jets' latest win streak, we expect the Winnipeg star forward to see an uptick in shots in tonight's matchup against Seattle. Read more in Neil Parker's daily NHL props.

Apr 16, 2024 • 11:39 ET • 4 min read
Kyle Connor Winnipeg Jets NHL
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It’s another busy night on the ice as the regular season winds down and teams battle for playoff seeding and postseason berths in the NHL odds.

A Metropolitan Division showdown between the Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers has huge playoff implications, while the Detroit Red Wings visit the Montreal Canadiens in the second game of a home-and-home series.

The Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, Winnipeg Jets, Vegas Golden Knights, and Vancouver Canucks are all huge favorites in the NHL odds, and the Hurricanes are the only team of the five without something on the line Tuesday.

Here are our free NHL picks and NHL player props for Tuesday, April 16.

NHL prop picks and best bets for April 16

Picks made on April 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets

Prop bet #1: Call it a year, Claude

This is a back-to-back spot with travel for both the Ottawa Senators and Boston Bruins, and both teams were shut out Monday. Ottawa is playing its last game of the season, and the Sens are dealing with a slew of injuries to their forward corps. Boston, meanwhile, is still playing to clinch the top seed in the Atlantic Division, and the Bruins allow the eighth-fewest goals per game (2.68) and sport a sixth-ranked 83.6 penalty-kill percentage on home ice.

Ottawa veteran Claude Giroux has also cooled considerably and missed the scoresheet in seven of the past nine games. He projects to skate with Ridly Greig and Mathieu Joseph at five-on-five on Tuesday, and they haven’t been on the ice for a goal across 64:49 of shared ice time and have only generated 1.81 expected goals per 60 minutes.

Of course, Boston will also have reigning Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark in net, and he’s turning in another sterling season. The Bruins netminder is sporting a .944 SV% and 1.73 GAA across his past four starts at TD Garden.

Claude Giroux prop: Under 0.5 points (+125 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Jets blank Burakovsky

The Winnipeg Jets can secure home ice in Game 1 of the playoffs with a win over the Seattle Kraken on Tuesday, and the Jets are tied for the fewest goals against per game (2.38) at Canada Life Centre. No. 1 goalie Connor Hellebuyck has also won four straight with a .949 save percentage and 1.74 GAA.

With Seattle eliminated and in a prime mail-it-in spot, I’m targeting winger Andre Burakovsky’s odds in the points market. He’s only marked the scoresheet three times across his past 14 games, and his 1.41 points per 60 minutes are a career-low mark.

Additionally, Burakovsky has shown limited five-on-five chemistry with projected linemates Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle across just 28:49 of shared ice time.

Andre Burakovsky prop: Under 0.5 points (-130 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Calling Connor

While Jets winger Kyle Connor has cleared this total in just two of his past seven games, I’m expecting an uptick in shot volume tonight. 

As discussed, there is a lot on the line for the Jets, and he’s returned to the No. 1 line with Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi the past two games. The American winger ranks 13th in shots among all skaters over the past three seasons, and he’s regularly traded at a 3.5 shot total during the span.

I consider these Kyle Connor odds an overreaction to a small sample, and I also don’t expect the Kraken to show up on Tuesday. Their last win against a team in a playoff position was against the Jets back on March 5, and Winnipeg turned around and beat them 3-0 the next night.

Kyle Connor prop: Over 2.5 shots (-120 at Bet99)

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