Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Kyrou Tests Edmonton Netminder

With two games on the NHL slate there isn't as much markets to choose from, but we've found a handful of plays to highlight in our NHL picks — including Jordan Kyrou against the Edmonton Oilers.

Feb 28, 2024 • 12:27 ET • 4 min read
Jordan Kyrou St. Louis Blues NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Only two games are dotting the NHL docket on Wednesday, and the New York Rangers and Edmonton Oilers are both huge favorites in the NHL odds.

New York hosts the Columbus Blue Jackets in the second game of a home-and-home set after the Blue Jackets topped the Rangers 4-2 on Sunday, while the St. Louis Blues hit the highway for Edmonton following a 4-2 road loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday.

I’ve got my eyes on a new-look line from the Blue Jackets for tonight’s NHL player props, and two St. Louis Blues skaters for my free NHL picks on Wednesday, February 28.

NHL prop picks and best bets for February 28

Picks made on February 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets

Prop bet #1: Calling Columbus

The Columbus Blue Jackets are rolling out an all-Russian line of Dmitri Voronkov, Yegor Chinakhov, and Kirill Marchenko in all situations, and the trio are wreaking havoc. They’ve combined for six goals and six assists across the past five games while driving 5-on-5 possession with a 61.3 Corsi For percentage. Additionally, the trio has dominated the expected goals (68.6%) and high-danger scoring chances (73.7%).

The numbers only improve when accounting for their power-play time, with a high-end 4.89 goals, 5.08 expected goals and 19.57 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes.

Voronkov, Chinakhov and Marchenko also just put on a clinic against the New York Rangers on Sunday with a pair of goals, eight high-danger scoring chances and a 75.5 CF% at 5-on-5.

Switching the venue to Madison Square Garden changes a lot, and the Rangers are expected to start No. 1 Igor Shesterkin. And, he’s surrendered just a single goal across each of his past three starts with a .975 SV%. Still, I’m anticipating the success to continue for this new-look Columbus line, and all three of them have plus-money odds to record a point.

Backing Yegor Chinakhov's odds, as well as Kirill Marchenko's odds and Dmitri Voronkov's odds will prove successful.

Yegor Chinakhov prop: Over 0.5 points (+135 at Bet99)
Kirill Marchenko prop: Over 0.5 points (+115 at Bet99)
Dmitri Voronkov prop: Over 0.5 points (+130 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Passing on Pavel

The St. Louis Blues have scored two goals or fewer in four of their past five games, and winger Pavel Buchnevich has accounted for five of their 11 tallies during the stretch. Additionally, his sharp shooting has longer legs with 10 goals and a 31.3 shooting percentage through his past 13 contests dating back to late January.

Like the majority of scorers, Buchnevich is historically streaky, and I’m anticipating this difficult, back-to-back road spot against the Edmonton Oilers to keep him in check Wednesday. After all, he’s only generated 3.99 individual expected goals during the noted 13-game stretch, so puck luck has been on his side. 

On the flip side, Edmonton righted a recent slide with a 4-2 home win over the Los Angeles Kings on Monday, and they remain among the best defenses since Kris Knoblauch took over behind the bench. The Oil have surrendered the sixth-fewest goals per game (2.72) and expected goals per 60 minutes (2.86), and they also sport a sixth-ranked 87.6 penalty-kill percentage.

I see value in these Pavel Buchnevich odds because of the tough schedule spot and opponent, and his unsustainable puck luck.

Pavel Buchnevich prop: Under 0.5 points (+100 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Kyrou fires away

There’s been an overreaction in the shots market for the Blues winger Jordan Kyrou. The typically high-volume shooter has registered just 11 shots across his past seven contests, and his total is down to 2.5 for a third consecutive game.

Kyrou registered 10.78 shots and 21.18 attempts per 60 minutes prior to the recent funk, but his 5.21 and 18.46 marks through the past seven games showcase the decline in shots is primarily the result of his attempts failing to hit the net more than anything. So, there’s now a nice buying opportunity for the Jordan Kyrou odds as long as he’s trading at this 2.5 total.

As discussed, the Oilers have turned the corner defensively since Kris Knoblauch took over behind the bench, but Kyrou paces the Blues in both shots (10.12) and attempts (20.86) per 60 this season and statistical correction to his shooting efficiency is ahead.

Jordan Kyrou prop: Over 2.5 shots (-115 at Bet99)

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