Penguins vs Capitals Picks: Revenge Game for Caps

The high-powered Capitals offense only had 22 shots on net in an overtime loss to the Penguins last game. Look for Washington to bring it tonight.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Feb 25, 2021 • 10:42 ET
Jakub Vrana Alexander Ovechkin Washington Capitals NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Eastern Conference rivals lock horns in the nation's capital once again as the Pittsburgh Penguins take on the Washington Capitals for the sixth time this year. 

With three of those five contests heading into overtime, oddsmakers are having a difficult time seperating these two teams with NHL betting lines opening with this game as a pick'em. 

We let you know which way we're leaning with our best free Penguins vs. Capitals picks and predictions for Thursday, February 25, with the puck dropping at 7 p.m. ET. 

Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals betting preview

Injuries

Penguins:  Kris Letang D (Questionable), Jason Zucker LW (Doubtful), Brian Dumoulin D (Out), Jared McCann LW (Out), Evan Rodrigues LW (Out), Juuso Riikola D (Out).
Capitals: Michal Kempny D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 37-15 in the Capitals' last 52 home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Capitals.

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NHL sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

PointsBet USA opened Washington a -115 home favorite late Wednesday morning, and the moneyline twice bounced to -110 pick 'em, which is where the number stands as of 5:30 p.m. ET. The Capitals are attracting 63 percent of bets and 77 percent of money. The total opened 6.5 (Under -120), with only a price adjustment thus far, to 6.5 (Under -125), even though ticket count and money are both about 2/1 on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Moneyline pick

The Penguins defeated the Capitals in D.C. on Tuesday night, winning 3-2 after opening overtime with a quick goal from Kasperi Kapanen. 

That improved the Penguins record to 4-1 against the Caps this season, although three of those victories have been close contests that were tied at the end of regulation. Pittsburgh is still just 3-8 in its last 11 games on the road and the Caps are in the perfect spot for a revenge game.

The Caps forwards were strangely quiet on Tuesday, with Washington mustering just 22 shots on net. But this is still a Capitals team that averages 3.28 goals per game and converts on 31.9 percent of powerplay opportunities. 

Expect Alexander Ovechkin and company to breakthrough on Thursday against a Penguins team that struggles on special teams. 

Pittsburgh is just 25th in the league on the penalty kill while ranking 23rd on the powerplay. Despite Pens goalie Tristan Jarry's recent solid play between the pipes he still has an unimpressive 3.18 GAA with a save percentage of .893 this season. 

Look for the Caps to bounce back with a big offensive performance and notch a win at home. 

PREDICTION: Washington (-110)

Over/Under pick

These rivals have now gone Under the total in back-to-back meetings but prior to that had cashed the Over in seven straight contests in the head-to-head.

We mentioned that Washington had just 22 shots on net in the previous meeting but we expect a return to the mean against a shaky Pittsburgh defense that ranks 25th in the NHL in high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes. 

We also expect regression to set in for Washington goalie Vitek Vanecek, who turned away 34 of 37 shots on Tuesday but has been inconsistent during his rookie year. 

Despite the low-scoring duel in the last meeting, these teams still rank near the bottom of the league in goals allowed per game with Pittsburgh giving up 3.24 and Washington surrendering 3.39.

With the Over 37-15 in the Capitals last 52 home games, back it again tonight. 

PREDICTION: Over 6.5 (+100)

Penguins vs Capitals betting card

  • Washington (-110)
  • Over 6.5 (+100)
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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez. You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports. Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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