First place in the Central Division will be on the line as the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning meet for the fourth time in six days Thursday night.
Shutouts have been a theme over the season series, with three of the four games winning to nil. The series is split 2-2 SU with the Under hitting in three of the four.
Oddsmakers have the Lightning as a -164 favorite with the Over set at 6.5 and shaded to the Under.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Carolina Hurricanes vs Tampa Bay Lightning for Thursday, February 25 (7:00 p.m. EST).
Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning betting preview
Injuries
Hurricanes: Teuvo Teravainen F (out), Petr Mrazek G (out).
Lightning: Nikita Kucherov F (out), Anthony Cirelli F (out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1-1 in the Hurricanes’ last eight road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Lightning.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTampa Bay opened a -148 home favorite and bounced up and down from there, first dipping to -139, then up to -152, and the Lightning are at -141 as of 5:30 p.m. ET. Tampa is getting 72 percent of bets and 73 percent of money. The total opened at 6 (Over -120) and stretched to 6.5 (Under -124) by late this afternoon, with ticket count almost dead even and 61 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
Recency bias is always hard to fight off on back-ends of back-to-backs, but the Lightning made Carolina look like one of the tamest teams in the league yesterday and held them to 1.74 expected goals. Tampa took just two minor penalties and held the Canes to single-digit shots in each period. The loss makes it two in a row for Carolina, something it has avoided all season until yesterday.
The early game (5 p.m EST) may have had something to do with Carolina’s no-show but a bounce-back performance is possible for the 12-5-1 Hurricanes who have played Tampa very well this season leading up to yesterday’s defeat.
Over the four matchups this year, Carolina has conceded just seven total goals and has shut out one of the league’s best offenses twice. Through 18 games, the Canes have been an underdog just four times this year — all against the Bolts.
Carolina could have an easier time getting on the board Thursday if Tampa decides to go with backup Curtis McElhinney for the second game of a back-to-back. The Tampa Bay backup has made just two starts this year and gave up six goals in his previous outing.
Even if Tampa rolls with starter Andrei Valsilevskiy again, Carolina has already beaten him twice this year. The reigning Vezina winner has yet to play on back-to-back days this year and owns a 3.86 GAA on zero days of rest.
Getting Carolina at +125 - possibly against a backup - is a great price and their No. 5-ranked offense should bounce back, as they’re averaging 3.39 goals per game on the year.
PREDICTION: Carolina ML (+125)
Over/Under pick
Yesterday’s Over died somewhere in the scoreless second period as Carolina generated few quality chances throughout the game. It was the first time Tampa has shut out a team all year as its home games have been averaging 6.25 goals per game and the Over is 5-3-1.
Yesterday’s game also featured a lot of 5x5 time as just three minor penalties were called. Tampa Bay is the fourth-most penalized team in the league, averaging over 10 minutes in penalties per game. A few more infractions could go a long way with Carolina owning the league’s seventh-best power play at 28.1 percent.
Tampa Bay only got two goals past young goalie Alex Nedeljkovic yesterday, as the 25-year-old netminder has played extremely well since starter Petr Mrazek went down. Nedeljkovic will likely give way to teammate James Reimer today who despite an 8-2 SU record, sports a GAA above 3.00 and a SV% below .900.
Carolina has given Reimer plenty of support this year, averaging 4.55 goals of offense when the veteran backup starts. In nine of his 10 starts, Reimer has allowed at least three goals and is a cool 7-0-2 O/U this season.
Heading into the three-game series, Carolina was 7-1 O/U in its previous eight games. This month, the Canes have a goals per game mark of 3.64 to go along with a 3.14 goals against mark.
Coming off a snoozefest, on the back-end of a back-to-back and possibly featuring each team’s worst goaltender, we have to put our recency bias aside and hit the Over on this lofty total of 6.5.
PREDICTION: Over 6.5 (+100)
Hurricanes vs Lightning betting card
- Carolina ML (+125)
- Over 6.5 (+100)
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