Maple Leafs vs Blues Picks and Predictions: Buds Beat Up on Ailing Blues

St. Louis is underrated, but it's also heavily hobbled for tonight's showdown with Toronto. With so much firepower missing, and great goaltending on both sides, our Maple Leafs vs. Blues picks are backing the Under tonight.

Last Updated: Jan 15, 2022 10:36 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ six-game road trip continues Saturday with a stop-off in St. Louis to face the Blues. The Leafs have yet to play a solid 60 minutes on the trip, but the addition of Mitch Marner should help against a very underrated Blues team.

Will the Leafs rebound after running into a hot goalie and taking the loss in Arizona? Can St. Louis stretch its winning streak to four games? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs Blues on January 15.

Maple Leafs vs Blues odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Leafs opened at -145 on the moneyline and have since moved 10 points to -155. The total sits at 6 and leans heavily to the Under.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Blues predictions

Predictions made on 1/15/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Maple Leafs vs Blues game info

Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
Date: Saturday, January 15, 2022
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports Midwest

Maple Leafs vs Blues betting preview

Injuries

Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner F (Probable), Pierre Engvall F (Probable), Nick Ritchie F (Out), Ondrej Kase (Out).

Blues: Pavel Buchnevich F (Out), Vladimir Tarasenko F (Questionable), Brayden Schenn F (Questionable), David Perron F (Questionable), Colton Parayko D (Questionable).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Blues head-to-head record (since 2017)

Maple Leafs: 1-7 SU, 17 goals for.
Blues: 7-1 SU, 27 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-0 in Blues’ last seven home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Blues.

Maple Leafs vs Blues picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

It hasn’t been a pretty road so far for the Maple Leafs. They blew a 4-1 lead in Colorado and subsequently lost in overtime, they blew another third-period lead in Vegas but won in overtime, and then lost 2-1 as -290 ML favorites to the Coyotes the following night. It’s easy to pick St. Louis in this matchup, especially as the home dog, but there are some good arguments for the Leafs despite their recent results.

The loss to Arizona was a tough one, as the Leafs launched 46 shots on net and finished with nearly four xgoals. It was a one-sided game that Toronto likely wins nine out of 10 times. They fell apart in the third period of both the Vegas and Colorado games, but at the end of the day, they finished with three of a possible four points from two of the West’s best teams. Toronto was also missing top-line winger Mitch Marner, who is probable to return tonight. 

This team plays differently without the pricey forward, but regardless of how much flak Marner gets, he is one of the most important role-players on this team and his addition is a massive boost for the Buds as they face a St. Louis team that is dealing with some problems of their own.

The Blues might be one of the best teams in the Western Conference, but they’ll be heading into Saturday night’s game shorthanded and the losses are significant. Pavel Buchnevich sits second on the team in points and will be unavailable tonight due to COVID, while a handful of other important players could also miss tonight’s match. Vladimir Tarasenko (third on the team in points), Brayden Schenn (17:17 minutes of ice per game), David Perron (first-line winger) and Colton Parayko (No. 1 on the team in ice time) are all in COVID protocol and their availability is highly questionable. The Blues managed to pick up the 2-1 win over Seattle with these absences, but the Leafs will pose a much more difficult task.

The Blues have allowed just three goals over their last three games thanks to some stellar goaltending from Jordan Binnington and Ville Husso, but the Leafs have the third-best offense since December and should find their scoring ways Saturday night after potting just a single goal in Arizona. Toronto sits second in the league in xgoals at 5-on-5, has the league’s best power play, and Auston Matthews has 17 goals in his last 15 games. Matthews will also get Marner back on his wing as the top-six forwards will all be in the lineup for the first time since January 5. 

The offensive advantage Toronto has is sizable, as the Blues could struggle to score missing four top-nine forwards. St. Louis has managed just four goals over their last two games and will see elite goaltending tonight in Jack Campbell.

Despite some late-game collapses, Campbell played well in the Vegas and Colorado games, and was a big reason the Buds took three points in the two matches. Campbell is near the top of the leaderboard in goals saved above expected/60, is second in save percentage (.935), and in GAA (2.02). The Toronto netminder had the Arizona game off and has played exceptionally well coming off rest this season, with an 8-1 SU record and a 1.39 GAA with three-plus days of rest.

Even if St. Louis had the edge in net (it doesn’t), it would be tough to trust this team with the losses of Buchnevich, Tarasenko, Perron, Parayko and Schenn. There is a small chance that some of these skaters could suit up tonight if they clear protocols, but as of Saturday morning, they are on the wrong side of questionable. 

Toronto has too many advantages tonight to fade, and we’re taking them in regulation in what should be yet another litmus test for the Leafs.

Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML +100

The Leafs hit their first Under of the road trip Wednesday night in Arizona with a 2-1 loss. The Buds are 2-3-1 O/U in their last six games and look to be past the Over stretch that hit in seven straight games. St. Louis sits eighth in goals against at 2.60, while the Leafs are even better with a 2.49 GAA mark.   

The Under has been kind to the Blues of late, as it is 8-2-1 over their last 11 games. The offense has managed just four goals over its last two games, and with the missing offensive pieces and facing stud goalie Jack Campbell, getting three goals will be a tough task for the Blues. The combination of Husso and Binnington has also been superb between the pipes of late and should hold this Toronto offense in check. 

Both clubs are among the best power plays in hockey, but they’re also backed with Top-10 penalty kills. 

We’re very comfortable with either Binnington or Husso but Husso is the hot hand and has stopped 57 of the last 59 shots he’s seen. At home, the Blues have been the stingiest team in hockey with a 2.15 GAA on home ice. 

Goaltending should be on display Saturday night and the Leafs will be looking to mimic Thursday’s defensive performance where they finished with 1.87 xgoals against. We’re backing the Under 6 here and wouldn’t be surprised if this number hits 5.5.

Prediction: Under 6 (-125)

The Blues are likely missing some very important offensive pieces tonight and are also the best defensive team on home ice in hockey. With the Blues shutting things down of late while riding some hot goaltenders and Campbell owning a 1.39 GAA with three or more days of rest, we’re putting our dollars on the Under Saturday night.

Both clubs have been profitable to the Under of late, and we’ve seen Toronto go through stretches of incredible Under hockey already this season. St. Louis is 7-0 to the Under in its last seven home games.

Pick: Under 6 (-125)

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