NHL betting fans will be treated to a potential Stanley Cup Final preview when the Colorado Avalanche host the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight.
Thursday's Lightning vs. Avalanche matchup marks the first action for both teams since the All-Star break, with Colorado sitting second in the NHL in points and Tampa Bay just behind at No. 3.
With so much firepower on the ice, will our free NHL picks and predictions side with a high-scoring affair? Not so fast...
Lightning vs Avalanche odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened at Colorado -115/Tampa Bay +103 and currently sits in the same area, with some books dealing the Avs as low as -125. The total remains at the opening number of 6.0, shaded to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Lightning vs Avalanche predictions
- Prediction: Avalanche ML (-115)
- Prediction: Under 6 (+110)
- Best bet: First 10 minutes correct score: 0-0 (+140)
Predictions made on 2/10/2022 at 12:04 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lightning vs Avalanche game info
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Thursday, February 10, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ALT, BSSUN
Lightning vs Avalanche betting preview
Key injuries
Lightning: Erik Cernak D (Out).
Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon C (Out), Alex Newhook C (Day-to-Day), Bowen Byram D (Day-to-Day).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Lightning vs Avalanche head-to-head record (2018-present)
Lightning: 3-1-1, 17 goals for.
Avalanche: 2-2-1, 14 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-2-1 in Colorado's last 10 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Avalanche.
Lightning vs Avalanche picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Lightning went into the All-Star break hot, winning three of their last four games and nine of their last 12, and doing so by playing excellent all-around hockey.
Per Natural Stat Trick, at 5 on 5 the Bolts are eighth with a 53.15 Corsi For Percentage during this 12-game stretch, seventh in high-danger chances for per 60 minutes, and 10th in expected goals for per 60 — while giving up the third-fewest shots against per 60 minutes and fourth-lowest expected goals against per 60.
Tampa Bay is also clicking on special teams over that span, sitting ninth with a 25.6% power-play success rate and seventh in killing penalties (85.3%), and continue to get elite goaltending from superstar Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has given up two goals or fewer in six of his last eight starts.
So, taking all that in, why isn't this a slam-dunk bet for backing Tampa at plus money?
Because the Avs have been even better lately.
Over this same stretch of hockey that dates back to January 4 (which covers 14 games for Colorado), the Avalanche are fourth in 5-on-5 CF%, fourth in shots on goal per 60, seventh in PP%, have won 15 of 17 games — and have not lost in regulation since mid-December.
Even with superstar Nathan MacKinnon sidelined by a concussion, Colorado has scored 12 goals in three games without him, with the only blemish being a two-goal effort against Arizona in which the Avs outshot their opponent 40-24 and appeared in the latter periods as if they were eager to get into the All-Star break and rest.
This is still a roster that boasts the league's fourth and seventh-leading scorers (Nazem Kadri and Mikko Rantanen) and a blueliner in Cale Makar who leads all defensemen in points per game — and has been getting fantastic goaltending over the last five weeks as well, with Pavel Francouz sporting a .935 SV%, Darcy Kuemper clocking in at a .926 mark, and the two combining for 10.91 goals saved above average during these last 17 contests.
There's also the issue of playing in Colorado, where the Avs have won 20 of 24 games this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.79 goals.
Both clubs are playing elite hockey right now, but now that the Avalanche are getting consistently good goaltending, their dominance at home is enough of an edge to push us in their direction tonight.
Prediction: Avalanche ML (-115)
Over/Under analysis
Despite all the offensive weapons these teams possess, with the aforementioned Avalanche players plus the likes of Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman for Tampa Bay, the Under has actually been the prevalent outcome for both of these clubs recently.
The Lightning have seen the Under cash in three straight games, while hitting in seven of Colorado's last 10 overall — a result of getting strong goaltending against high-danger chances over the last month (Colorado first with 88.17% high-danger save percentage), while also clamping down on the number of shots sent towards the net (Tampa is 6th with 28.05 shots against/60).
This is also the first leg of a back-to-back for the Lightning, so we'd expect them to try and conserve some energy by avoiding getting into an up-and-down affair with Colorado, rather opting to control the pace and make this a more defensive game.
Add in a stud like Vasilevskiy between the pipes for Tampa, plus either of Colorado's goaltending options playing well, and we're going to side with the Under tonight.
Prediction: Under 6 (+110)
Best bet
Working with the recent theme of Colorado playing lower-scoring games is that it hasn't been particularly urgent to start the scoring early, with a goal coming in the first 10 minutes of an Avalanche game just three times in its last 10 contests — Buffalo and Montreal (aka two of the worst defenses in the league) plus Los Angeles (who started a struggling Jonathan Quick).
The Lightning haven't exactly seen a lot of fireworks either in road games recently, with the scoresheet staying empty through the first 10 minutes in two of their last three away matchups.
With both teams getting their feet back under them following eight and nine-day layoffs from game action, with solid goaltending between the pipes, we're going to bank on a lackluster opening 10 minutes in Colorado.
Pick: First 10 minutes correct score: 0-0 (+140)
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